ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC now predicting a peak of 60 knots, hurricane watches up.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Why keep the winds at 45mph when there is a confirmed reading of sustained winds at 65mph? At least bump it up a little bit
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Read at Advisories thread the 11 AM advisory that has the Hurricane Watch issued for portions of Gulf Coast.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119835&p=2698017#p2698017
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119835&p=2698017#p2698017
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon appears to have determined that the center observed by radar may be the true center for Gordon. Estimated pressure is around 1010 mbar.
977 kB. Source: GR2Analyst screenshot

977 kB. Source: GR2Analyst screenshot

Last edited by TheAustinMan on Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Well they found some westerlies... pretty high pressure to be the center (at least on extrapolated pressure).
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TheAustinMan wrote:Recon appears to have determined that the center observed by radar may be the true center for Gordon.
Gordon surprising me left and right this morning.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Could already be over water
per radar it appears over water
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Recon
Who wants to post the Obs from this first mission?


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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
its over achieved since yesterday afternoon and although it found some land today albeit the swamp it didnt stay for very longRL3AO wrote:I'm starting to think you more bullish people could be onto something. I don't think we're going to see RI (although I suppose a 985 mb 60 to 65kt system would meet that criteria), but the eastern GOM looks fairly favorable. Maybe the next 24 hours will be more interesting than I'm giving Gordon credit for.
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
My question is this. Since we know the NWS in Key West recorded 65 mph winds sustained, why are they keeping it at 45 mph? Do they not trust the reading? Also, bonus question lol. If it is a 65 mph TS, why is the pressure so high?
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
High background surface pressures yield to a higher central pressure than you would expect. Stacey Stewart sees what we’ve been saying here. The shear that models keep referring to is not there or simply not affecting Gordon. Gordon has the structure for rapid intensification.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
the 56 knot OB must have been way elevated. Good call by the NHC to keep intensity leveled. the anonmoter on the bouy this morning that measured 43 kts was over 40 meters elevated, also.
Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tarheelprogrammer wrote: Also, bonus question lol. If it is a 65 mph TS, why is the pressure so high?
Because thunderstorms and their downdrafts can cause 65 mph winds. It certainly isn't the pressure gradient.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:TheAustinMan wrote:Recon appears to have determined that the center observed by radar may be the true center for Gordon.
Gordon surprising me left and right this morning.
Guess I should have bet you

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Tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Looking at the satellite imagery, I'd expect an LLC inland over the western Everglades. However, surface obs certainly don't support any LLC up there. Wind in the western keys is light and variable. I don't think there is a well-defined LLC at this time. Just because it's called a TS now doesn't mean it will be stronger at landfall. Look at a satelllite loop of those high clouds streaming north to south across the Gulf in its path. That's shear.
I couldn't agree more. I'm kind of a purist with regard to Tropical Storm nomenclature. Having been up till the wee morning hours it was apparent on radar at least that this was getting a little better organized. After waking up to see the upgrade and then take an immediate look at IR and visible satellite and then radar, and still be hard-pressed to know where a LLC might be? Meanwhile all i'm seeing is east winds throughout the Miami area with a forecast that never begins to bend those winds more southward as "Gordon" pulls off to the northwest. I understand when for the purpose of tropical classifications all that may be available is satellite but in instances such as a highly populated region with access to METAR's, private land based weather stations, radar, AND satellite.... there's just no way I'd have classified this as a T.S. quite yet.... just no way. Either wait for the plane or upgrade at least 12 hours earlier for the potential of tropical storm conditions (in gusts).
(edit to the above) I'm just now catching up on some of the obs that occurred this a.m. over the Keys and certainly the sustained winds reported justify additional warnings. Still though, structurally I still would not have made the outright upgrade and certainly would have tailored warnings a bit differently (less aggressively) for Miami-Dade county. Just my own .02 cents.
Last edited by chaser1 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Looking at the satellite imagery, I'd expect an LLC inland over the western Everglades. However, surface obs certainly don't support any LLC up there. Wind in the western keys is light and variable. I don't think there is a well-defined LLC at this time. Just because it's called a TS now doesn't mean it will be stronger at landfall. Look at a satelllite loop of those high clouds streaming north to south across the Gulf in its path. That's shear.
I couldn't agree more. I'm kind of a purist with regard to Tropical Storm nomenclature. Having been up till the wee morning hours it was apparent on radar at least that this was getting a little better organized. After waking up to see the upgrade and then take an immediate look at IR and visible satellite and then radar, and still be hard-pressed to know where a LLC might be? Meanwhile all i'm seeing is east winds throughout the Miami area with a forecast that never begins to bend those winds more southward as "Gordon" pulls off to the northwest. I understand when for the purpose of tropical classifications all that may be available is satellite but in instances such as a highly populated region with access to METAR's, private land based weather stations, radar, AND satellite.... there's just no way I'd have classified this as a T.S. quite yet.... just no way. Either wait for the plane or upgrade at least 12 hours earlier for the potential of tropical storm conditions (in gusts).
Recon just closed the low. Moot point
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest saved loop.


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