Texas Fall 2018
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4176
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2018
So far, nothing here. Dry as a bone. Hoping it changes. Seems like it should.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030248 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018
.UPDATE...
The line of storms that extends from the southern Edwards Plateau
southward to the west of the Pearsall area over Frio County is
showing signs of breaking apart as of the 9:45 PM based on latest Doppler
radar image with the exception of the isolated strong storm west of
Pearsall. HiRes models suggest for the line of storms to continue to
dissipate as it moves to the east within the next several hours.
These HiRes models bring an end to the convective activity before
storms get to the San Antonio area. We will keep low PoPs for the
rest of tonight for areas along and east of I-35.
Out west, some HiRes models want to bring a second round of showers
and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains overnight. This is a
reasonable solution based on latest area radar trends and have kept
intact the changes for rain (30 and 40 percent) for the Rio Grande
Plains for the period. A lull is expected later tonight for most of
the area, however, showers and storms are expected to affect the
region once again Monday, especially the Hill Country and parts of
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon period and late afternoon
into the evening hours across the Rio Grande Plains.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030248 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018
.UPDATE...
The line of storms that extends from the southern Edwards Plateau
southward to the west of the Pearsall area over Frio County is
showing signs of breaking apart as of the 9:45 PM based on latest Doppler
radar image with the exception of the isolated strong storm west of
Pearsall. HiRes models suggest for the line of storms to continue to
dissipate as it moves to the east within the next several hours.
These HiRes models bring an end to the convective activity before
storms get to the San Antonio area. We will keep low PoPs for the
rest of tonight for areas along and east of I-35.
Out west, some HiRes models want to bring a second round of showers
and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains overnight. This is a
reasonable solution based on latest area radar trends and have kept
intact the changes for rain (30 and 40 percent) for the Rio Grande
Plains for the period. A lull is expected later tonight for most of
the area, however, showers and storms are expected to affect the
region once again Monday, especially the Hill Country and parts of
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon period and late afternoon
into the evening hours across the Rio Grande Plains.
0 likes
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
weatherdude1108 wrote:So far, nothing here. Dry as a bone. Hoping it changes. Seems like it should.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030248 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018
.UPDATE...
The line of storms that extends from the southern Edwards Plateau
southward to the west of the Pearsall area over Frio County is
showing signs of breaking apart as of the 9:45 PM based on latest Doppler
radar image with the exception of the isolated strong storm west of
Pearsall. HiRes models suggest for the line of storms to continue to
dissipate as it moves to the east within the next several hours.
These HiRes models bring an end to the convective activity before
storms get to the San Antonio area. We will keep low PoPs for the
rest of tonight for areas along and east of I-35.
Out west, some HiRes models want to bring a second round of showers
and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains overnight. This is a
reasonable solution based on latest area radar trends and have kept
intact the changes for rain (30 and 40 percent) for the Rio Grande
Plains for the period. A lull is expected later tonight for most of
the area, however, showers and storms are expected to affect the
region once again Monday, especially the Hill Country and parts of
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon period and late afternoon
into the evening hours across the Rio Grande Plains.
I’ll believ it when I see it. Don’t get your hopes up too high is all I can say.
0 likes
Re: Texas Fall 2018
We might need to start watching the BOC in about another 7-10 days from now. If something forms it appears to want to just go into Mexico, but we’ll see.
1 likes
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4040
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Best Euro and Canadian runs I've seen in a long time. Widespread 3-6 inch rainfall totals across much of the state over the next 10 days. Please verify!
2 likes
Re: Texas Fall 2018
South Texas Storms wrote:Best Euro and Canadian runs I've seen in a long time. Widespread 3-6 inch rainfall totals across much of the state over the next 10 days. Please verify!
Wow, that’s awesome! That would be perfect
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37145
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall 2018
South Texas Storms wrote:Best Euro and Canadian runs I've seen in a long time. Widespread 3-6 inch rainfall totals across much of the state over the next 10 days. Please verify!
yeah we get the rain without a tropical system stalling or leaving us high and dry.. I think everyone would be happy
DFW almost 5 inches of rain on the Euro and the last 5 days of the run(starting Saturday) the high is below 85. Sign me up.
2 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Fall 2018
weatherdude1108 wrote:austin06 wrote:I was feeling jealous because people in my town were posting pics of the 3" of rain they got last night while we got not a drop.
Then it started to downpour and has lasted the past 45 minutes. We have puddles! Most significant rain in months.
I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.
We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.
Yes, last Monday we drove the back way from Dripping to San Antonio. Parts west of us were even drier than where we are, which was hard to believe - all of the creeks we drove over were bone dry. San Antonio seemed in better shape.
Hope you got some precip - we got a little over 2 inches, but just west in downtown Dripping they'd gotten nothing. This afternoon looks promising for the entire area.
0 likes
Re: Texas Fall 2018
austin06 wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:austin06 wrote:I was feeling jealous because people in my town were posting pics of the 3" of rain they got last night while we got not a drop.
Then it started to downpour and has lasted the past 45 minutes. We have puddles! Most significant rain in months.
I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.
We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.
Yes, last Monday we drove the back way from Dripping to San Antonio. Parts west of us were even drier than where we are, which was hard to believe - all of the creeks we drove over were bone dry. San Antonio seemed in better shape.
Hope you got some precip - we got a little over 2 inches, but just west in downtown Dripping they'd gotten nothing. This afternoon looks promising for the entire area.
Hopefully you get some rain over there! We had a good rain, again, this morning in Southside Place. Not nearly as severe as they were predicting from yesterday with a flash flood warning issued for the Houston area from midnight until late evening tonight. I do not see that being an issue at this point.
That being said, watching Gordan fire up is interesting to say the least as he has now started picking up the Gulf Stream heat and fuel. Gordan is developing quite rapidly this morning.
0 likes
Houston, Texas. Allison '01, Rita '05, Dolly '08, Ike '08, Issac '12, Harvey '17
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2018
As long as it doesn’t rain from Noon on friday to midnight Sunday morning in CS, I’ll be happy.
1 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4176
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Cypresso wrote:austin06 wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:
I did not get a drop last night, but saw lightning in distance. Still nothing here yet today either. Playing the waiting game.
We drove out to Wimberley yesterday. It is SO DRY in that area. So much brown grass and yellow shrubs between Austin and here. They need rain desperately. Looks like they missed out on the last two events in July and August by the way it looked.
Yes, last Monday we drove the back way from Dripping to San Antonio. Parts west of us were even drier than where we are, which was hard to believe - all of the creeks we drove over were bone dry. San Antonio seemed in better shape.
Hope you got some precip - we got a little over 2 inches, but just west in downtown Dripping they'd gotten nothing. This afternoon looks promising for the entire area.
Hopefully you get some rain over there! We had a good rain, again, this morning in Southside Place. Not nearly as severe as they were predicting from yesterday with a flash flood warning issued for the Houston area from midnight until late evening tonight. I do not see that being an issue at this point.
That being said, watching Gordan fire up is interesting to say the least as he has now started picking up the Gulf Stream heat and fuel. Gordan is developing quite rapidly this morning.
We did get a few sprinkles this morning -- it so far.
Rain been very close, I mean within a mere 5 to 10 MILES of us yesterday just north and south. Wind even picked up briefly from nearby storms.
Today does look more promising. BRING IT!
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:14 am, edited 3 times in total.
2 likes
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Got about 4.75 inches at our house in Stephens County yesterday. It must have been a localized downpour because most of the area had 3.5 to 3.75 inches. Another nice line moving in right now from the NE!
3 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9788
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall 2018
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:As long as it doesn’t rain from Noon on friday to midnight Sunday morning in CS, I’ll be happy.
Oh, isn't there some kind of sports event in College Station on Saturday evening?
1 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9788
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall 2018
NWS looking at the potential for heavy rain today in portions of SE Texas today.
1 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Very high pwats and dewpoints. This kind of set up will make some people angry and others happy. Localized 5" for some, humid drizzle for unlucky few.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Cpv17 wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
I’m not expecting anything much from it here in SETX. We’ll be on the dry side of it
If we are in the vicinity of the low, lower surface pressure, with day time heating we will have some big rain makers despite being on the dry side.
How? When the storm will be north and east of us? That’s the dry side. Explain yourself lol
Yes, there is a drier side and a very wet side to your typical TS. In SE, most of the time if there isnt some sort of mid level high pressure over us, we will likely get rain. Add sun and a very soupy environment, you bet we will have big rain making storms.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2018
2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo
1 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9788
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Haris wrote:2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo
As Ntxw alluded to earlier, the nature of this rain is hit and miss. I live just a few miles from Haris and I've gotten doodley-squat today!
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4176
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Portastorm wrote:Haris wrote:2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo
As Ntxw alluded to earlier, the nature of this rain is hit and miss. I live just a few miles from Haris and I've gotten doodley-squat today!
I have gotten sprinkles myself so far.
0 likes
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28980
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Haris wrote:2.1" at my house in austin!!! heavy rain and CG bolts!!!!! wooooohoooooooooo
Must be nice. We have had less than an inch so far. Some OCM are expecting another round later tonight though. We will see. Right now our atmosphere is stabilized.
Unfortunately Galveston had over 10" of rain today along with quite a bit of street flooding making streets impassable and causing some businesses to close. To say the least the weather put a big damper on the last big tourist day of the season for them.
0 likes
Re: Texas Fall 2018
This rain event is a dud in my area. The past 3 days here we’ve had 40% chance, 60%, & 80% and all we got is .10”
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 30 guests