ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Also, bonus question lol. If it is a 65 mph TS, why is the pressure so high?

Because thunderstorms and their downdrafts can cause 65 mph winds. It certainly isn't the pressure gradient.

Agreed. NHC earlier this year made an intensity estimate on Alberto based off of T-Storm downdrafts that lead to an overestimate.

[drezee]

Observations and Analysis:
TS Gordon is currently a small system with a small LLC with a trough hanging off to the SW. The wind field is not clean but it doesn't matter right now. Recon may not even be able to close a center until tonight. What matters is the next 36 hours...

There are two system inducing shear: an upper low and "new" upper high. The upper low has been finally cut off and is retrograding to slightly S of West. With Gordon moving WNW, it will increase distance from this upper low. That distance will allow Gordon to use it as an outflow channel within 12-18 hours. The upper high that basically formed over the last two days with the "almost" system near TX/LA is moving NW and is transient. A developing TC will easily displace this shear. You will begin to see a solid line of high cloud between the new upper high Gordon us forming and the transient one. That will be the west side of Gordon saying get out of my way. This will also produce a upper gradient that will enhance air evacuation.

Gordon should not be downplayed. It has every chance to be a hurricane. Days ago, I said outflow jets could emerge if properly aligned. I'd say 70% that they have. If Gordon can really increase convection in the next 12 hours, the the shear means nothing. He could go close to RI if the alignments above take shape. Officials will be playing catchup tonight and tomorrow. I expect people will wake up tomorrow staring down a different situation than right now.

I'm closer to 90% now...

[Siker]

High central pressure and slight structural issues aside, this sudden blowup this morning into a respectable storm structure kind of reminds me of Harvey’s overnight organization last year when it reached hurricane status. This hardly has time to get stronger than some sort of Cat 1, but 70-80kts would not surprise me.

[Michele B]

Looks like the forecast path has been adjusted east somewhat.

Maybe the forecasted sheer will push the storm more east? Strafe the west coast of FL and come in near Destin, FL (where they have now posted TS Warnings).

[tolakram]

Now you can kind of see near where the center is on the latest sat loop.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=774&y=762.5&z=2&im=42&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1036631774271623171

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Zero doubt in my mind now that Gordon has a closed, vigorous LLC per the recon. Definitely starting to organize at a quicker pace.

[Hurricaneman]

Has a nice curved band on the northern semicircle

[MississippiWx]

Latest saved loop.

Now to watch the radar to see if he starts building an eye wall.

[BYG Jacob]

Latest saved loop.

Now to watch the radar to see if he starts building an eye wall.

Is it just me, or does he look like he's starting to build one in that loop?

[MississippiWx]

Pretty incredible on recon how there are no shortage of westerlies. Solid circulation. Should begin deepening now that it’s back over water.

[Ivanhater]

Wow

[MississippiWx]

Latest saved loop.

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/7eyRNHf.gif[/img]

Now to watch the radar to see if he starts building an eye wall.

Is it just me, or does he look like he's starting to build one in that loop?

Possibly.

[artist]

14:23:30Z 26.067N 82.167W 907.6 mb
(~ 26.80 inHg) 984 meters
(~ 3,228 feet) 1016.1 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 84° at 43 knots
(From the E at ~ 49.5 mph) 19.1°C
(~ 66.4°F) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
65.1%
14:24:00Z 26.067N 82.150W 908.1 mb
(~ 26.82 inHg) 977 meters
(~ 3,205 feet) 1016.1 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 82° at 43 knots
(From the E at ~ 49.5 mph) 18.9°C
(~ 66.0°F) 17.3°C
(~ 63.1°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
65.1%
14:24:30Z 26.050N 82.117W 908.1 mb
(~ 26.82 inHg) 976 meters
(~ 3,202 feet) 1016.1 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 80° at 43 knots
(From the E at ~ 49.5 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 17.9°C
(~ 64.2°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
65.1%
14:25:00Z 26.033N 82.100W 907.8 mb
(~ 26.81 inHg) 979 meters
(~ 3,212 feet) 1016.0 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 77° at 43 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 49.5 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 18.2°C
(~ 64.8°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
65.1%
14:25:30Z 26.017N 82.083W 908.2 mb
(~ 26.82 inHg) 975 meters
(~ 3,199 feet) 1016.0 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 76° at 42 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 48.3 mph) 18.5°C*
(~ 65.3°F*) 18.3°C*
(~ 64.9°F*) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 26.4 knots (~ 30.3 mph)
62.8%
14:26:00Z 26.000N 82.067W 907.8 mb
(~ 26.81 inHg) 978 meters
(~ 3,209 feet) 1016.0 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 76° at 41 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 47.2 mph) 18.4°C
(~ 6

[drezee]

Pretty incredible on recon how there are no shortage of westerlies. Solid circulation. Should begin deepening now that it’s back over water.

I'm more bullish than most. I was surprised as well. Need to begin voluntary evacuations of barrier islands like grand isle and Dauphin island.

[Ian2401]

Pretty incredible on recon how there are no shortage of westerlies. Solid circulation. Should begin deepening now that it’s back over water.

Yep, will have a small window over near 30 C waters before it probably hits that clump of shear.

[MississippiWx]

Pretty incredible on recon how there are no shortage of westerlies. Solid circulation. Should begin deepening now that it’s back over water.

Yep, will have a small window over near 30 C waters before it probably hits that clump of shear.

Shear will be no obstacle. Time is the biggest detractor.

[drezee]

Pretty incredible on recon how there are no shortage of westerlies. Solid circulation. Should begin deepening now that it’s back over water.

Yep, will have a small window over near 30 C waters before it probably hits that clump of shear.

Read my post above, it isn't real shear...

[Hurricaneman]

Pretty incredible on recon how there are no shortage of westerlies. Solid circulation. Should begin deepening now that it’s back over water.

Yep, will have a small window over near 30 C waters before it probably hits that clump of shear.

That’s storm related shear

[drezee]

As I look over other similar scenarios, I think of Hurricane Erin from 1995. Similar setup but likely not as developed so quickly. It should ramp to the coast like Erin. Maybe some land interactions with FL...

Erin made landfall with 100mph btw...that is the ceiling I discussed two days ago