2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
I am amazed at how warm the forecasts are for the next 15 days for the US as a whole and for the NE/Midwest especially. Some areas in the Midwest/NE are as much as 8-9 warmer than normal!
Going back to 1950 on a nationally degree day population weighted basis, the forecast I saw is for record warmth by about 1 degree/day averaged out vs the current record warm holder of 2015 and which is as warm as the 30 year normal for July 1-15!!
This tells me that the forecasted E US ridging to the north of the SE US could easily be in record strong territory going back to 1950 when looking at 8/31-9/14 as a whole. This would mean the JB “ridge over troubled waters” in overdrive should it verify and merits a very close eye on any TC that happens to be located not too far off the SE coast as it would be in a potentially threatening position to move W, WNW or NW into the SE US beneath that forecasted ridge or moving northward into the NE US should one come in just as the ridge weakens.
Going back to 1950 on a nationally degree day population weighted basis, the forecast I saw is for record warmth by about 1 degree/day averaged out vs the current record warm holder of 2015 and which is as warm as the 30 year normal for July 1-15!!
This tells me that the forecasted E US ridging to the north of the SE US could easily be in record strong territory going back to 1950 when looking at 8/31-9/14 as a whole. This would mean the JB “ridge over troubled waters” in overdrive should it verify and merits a very close eye on any TC that happens to be located not too far off the SE coast as it would be in a potentially threatening position to move W, WNW or NW into the SE US beneath that forecasted ridge or moving northward into the NE US should one come in just as the ridge weakens.
6 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Bocadude85 wrote:SFLcane wrote:These ominous steering pattern posts going into september can make everyone a bit uneasy BUT remember if there is no hurricane to take advantage it's worth nothing. Lets hope it stays that way.
Well let’s hope the the 0z Euro is wrong, it shows 2 systems behind future Florence heading westward.
Actually based on that euro the current system developing off the african coast could leave an open alley near bermuda but that's long range.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
SFLcane wrote:Not sure i understand 2 mets contradicting themselves....Micheal Lowry said on twiiter shear for the first time is running near normal in the caribbean and then Phil K comes this morning and lays down the hammer saying its the highest its been in years again. Lol what gives..
According to Dr Phil K the 3rd highest windshear lever over the Caribbean during August, following to second highest was 2002, my analog year, when 8 named systems formed during September, which 2 became Major Hurricanes in NW Caribbean & GOM.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
00z First sign GFS holds with the second wave. Oh boy! Here we go. Ends up weakening ridge but that is way out there in timeframe.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2300
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Well looks like the long anticipated switch has finally turned on. Much more active in the Atlantic with two named storms (one in the MDR almost a hurricane) and more in the future forecasted.
2 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
@MJVentrice
The ECMWF EPS has gone back with the -VP200 anomaly amplitude over Africa into the Indian Ocean. This is an indication for more Atlantic tropical cyclones during the mid-half of September. But suppression will likely follow later in September, quieting down the Atlantic TC season
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1036955956867948544
The ECMWF EPS has gone back with the -VP200 anomaly amplitude over Africa into the Indian Ocean. This is an indication for more Atlantic tropical cyclones during the mid-half of September. But suppression will likely follow later in September, quieting down the Atlantic TC season
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1036955956867948544
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
I think we can throw these daily CDAS SST anomaly maps out the window, Florence became a hurricane in these supposedly much cooler waters than average, I have always thought these daily composites can be so misleading at times.
6 likes
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 913
- Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
I guess the takeaway here is ".5 to 1 degree C below average in September is still warm enough to support at least a low-end major hurricane."
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1037312515707940866
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1037314353110900737
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037053993422409735
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037054868186378240
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037055517817024513
Note that the closest two matches to JJA 2018 are the moderate La Niña years of 1999 and 2017.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1037314353110900737
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037053993422409735
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037054868186378240
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1037055517817024513
Note that the closest two matches to JJA 2018 are the moderate La Niña years of 1999 and 2017.
3 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hammy wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:The Tropical Atlantic is even drier than 2013 at this time. I’d be VERY surprised to see anything significant come out of this area throughout the remainder of the season. Not even the Kelvin Waves can kickstart tropical development.
This raises some questions, if the dry air is a result of the cooler SSTs and lack of instability, or if it's a separate issue on it's own, and how tied in this is to the AMO and Nino. One thing though compared to 2013 at least is that the waves that year didn't even make it off of Africa much (which likely contributed to the dry air), this year they're coming off strong and instantly going poof.
Just 16 days ago and now we have our first major in the dry hostile cool Atlantic. Important lesson for ALL of us, not just who I quoted.
My trusty instability chart shows better conditions, I guess.
5 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
tolakram wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:
I have been right most years lol at least when it comes to a slow Atlantic. Last year was an exception.
2010 - 2012 were all above average, 2013-2015 were all below average, 16 above, 17 hyper.
August had no named storms. Congrats. Will be interesting to see where September ends up. I'm still in the way below average camp, even with Florence a major, but it only takes one.
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
tolakram wrote:Hammy wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:The Tropical Atlantic is even drier than 2013 at this time. I’d be VERY surprised to see anything significant come out of this area throughout the remainder of the season. Not even the Kelvin Waves can kickstart tropical development.
This raises some questions, if the dry air is a result of the cooler SSTs and lack of instability, or if it's a separate issue on it's own, and how tied in this is to the AMO and Nino. One thing though compared to 2013 at least is that the waves that year didn't even make it off of Africa much (which likely contributed to the dry air), this year they're coming off strong and instantly going poof.
Just 16 days ago and now we have our first major in the dry hostile cool Atlantic. Important lesson for ALL of us, not just who I quoted.
My trusty instability chart shows better conditions, I guess.
https://i.imgur.com/1ydZ45O.png
Well technically it became a major in the Subtropical Atlantic but still quite impressive nonetheless considering the SST configuration is not ideal. Maybe the Modoki nature of things is to blame?
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1037314353110900737
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Well to be fair it is peak of Hurricane season. Even in quietest years (yes even 2013) there are still hurricanes that track from Africa. It will probably remain busy here for the next 2 weeks at least.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Just 10 days ago there were a lot of people dismissing the idea of a similar September like 2002, a good analog year I brought back in early August. I would not be surprised if it stays busy through early October like that year.
4 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
TheStormExpert wrote:Well technically it became a major in the Subtropical Atlantic but still quite impressive nonetheless considering the SST configuration is not ideal. Maybe the Modoki nature of things is to blame?
Yep, so did Ike, and while I haven't gone over every storm many of the east coast hurricanes became a hurricane in the sub tropics or very close to 20N.
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
September is 1/6 of hurricane season but it typically produces 1/3 of storms. Climo tasks it with double duty. If it performs above normal it could easily make up for late August which should have, but didn't produce. At this juncture we're in the hunt for a normalish season and beating normal seems doable...definitely ahead of seasonal forecasting which seems to still be of little value. It's going to be interesting to see if we can get some late season action down in the western Caribbean...something I'm always interested in.
3 likes
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
TheStormExpert wrote:Here’s some good-ish news.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 6319662080
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 8299299840
Unless or until said tropical waves eventually move out of the MDR and develop nearer to Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands, Bahamas, N. Caribbean, or Gulf.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
The season may end up at least average if this comes to fruition of African waves staying active through October.
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
Will the Atlantic remain active over the next several weeks? It looks that way.
Enhanced rainfall and convection (purple) is expected to continue over Africa during the next several weeks, the breeding ground for tropical waves. The pattern may persist into October.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1037656832435576833
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
Will the Atlantic remain active over the next several weeks? It looks that way.
Enhanced rainfall and convection (purple) is expected to continue over Africa during the next several weeks, the breeding ground for tropical waves. The pattern may persist into October.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1037656832435576833
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Then comes Michael Ventrice saying that the Cape Verde season may only last 1-2 weeks this year.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037691248847609859
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037691248847609859
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Gums, HurakaYoshi, nlosrgr8, pepeavilenho and 70 guests