ATL: GORDON - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#81 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:26 am

Newest runs I can find:

HMON into St. Tammany Parish LA north of Lake Pontchartrain at about Slidell/Salt Bayou. Most of the weather is along the MS and AL Gulf Coast. Landfall around midnight tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=48

NAM 12z landfall around the MS Gulf Coastaround midnight tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0312&fh=42

06z RGEM landfalls MS Gulf Coast tomorrow around 9 or 10. More defined than HMON or NAM.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=44
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#82 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:32 am

The 6Z HWRF looks like it has a pretty good track. Starting at hour 9.

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#83 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:51 am

2.31 so far, need some heavier banding to get to 4
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#84 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:31 am

tolakram wrote:The 6Z HWRF looks like it has a pretty good track. Starting at hour 9.



Much further east shift than previous runs. I know with that ridge in place, it can't move much further east.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#85 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:36 am

12Z GFS looks useless for Gordon already.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#86 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:38 am

SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:The 6Z HWRF looks like it has a pretty good track. Starting at hour 9.



Much further east shift than previous runs. I know with that ridge in place, it can't move much further east.

But at H45 the 06Z (Bay St Louis) is much to the west than the 0Z (Ocean Springs)
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#87 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:03 am

The GFS is pure trash. Doesn’t even have this as a closed circulation ever.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#88 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:18 am

MississippiWx wrote:The GFS is pure trash. Doesn’t even have this as a closed circulation ever.



What's the window where the Hurricane Models perform much better? Is it 48 hours?
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#89 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:04 pm

CMC back to old EC solution with track at 12z hitting SELA at midnight tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0312&fh=42
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#90 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:07 pm

HMON 12z @ about Harrison County, MS tomorrow around 7pm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0312&fh=36
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#91 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:10 pm

WRF-P about the same as HMON.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0306&fh=42

RGEM is about the same as CMC which you’d expect because it’s part of the CMC. Landfall Eastern St. Tammany Parish 11:00pm tomorrow
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0312&fh=40
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#92 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:12 pm

FV-3 GFS La/MS border around midnight.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0312&fh=42
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#93 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:14 pm

ICON has nothing even at 500mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=45
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#94 Postby storm4u » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:16 pm

Steve wrote:ICON has nothing even at 500mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=45



Hasn't updated since August 14th lol
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#95 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:19 pm

storm4u wrote:
Steve wrote:ICON has nothing even at 500mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=45



Hasn't updated since August 14th lol


Probably for the best. Haha
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#96 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:54 pm

Euro coming in further east this run
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#97 Postby pcbjr » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:05 pm

IMHO ... Sit up and take notice western FL panhandle ... :?:
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Just then the wind came squalling through the door,
But who can the weather command?
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#98 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:17 pm

pcbjr wrote:IMHO ... Sit up and take notice western FL panhandle ... :?:


Definitely taking notice here. Preps all in place just in case.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#99 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:25 pm

12Z Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Models

#100 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:29 pm

Yeah. If the EC is right, it’s going to be on the western edge of the guidance. You can see the high very well on visible and wv. Pushing from the east and down from the NE and N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid
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