ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Here's the steering flow for a cat 1 hurricane (given tiny size assumed pressure in the 990s):

So looking at that, a panhandle landfall certainly isn't off the table if it rides that on the edge?

From where it is now, it would end up with a westward component and into Louisiana unless the ridge moves east. Of course, that is what it is right now and not what it will eventually be, but the ridge is likely to only move slightly east. The analysis for 970-989 (i.e. cat 2/low cat 3) is similar.

[karenfromheaven]

The concerning thing isn’t what Gordon’s current strength is. It’s still a mid-tier TS.

I’m more concerned that now that it’s structurally organized without any obstacles from here until the North Gulf Coast that it can absolutely RI.

Crazy how SFL literally does nothing to hinder tropical cyclones.


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I believe Katrina intensified as it crossed over extreme south Florida. The Everglades is just a tub of bath water with grass growing out if it, and it makes great TS fuel.

[tolakram]

A bunch of us are chatting in Discord (chat room). Join by clicking here: https://discord.gg/VMktVYb Signup required, otherwise free.

[PTPatrick]

This is an interesting setup for Mississippi and one we don’t see often. Shallow angle of approach should help with surge whatever this becomes, not to mention small size.

Pros, what are the conditions really looking like ahead for tonight and tomorrow? It’s so rare anything strengthens until landfall in the NGOM...but this is a slightly unusual set up. So I guess it wouldn’t surprise me. Smal storms act weird.

[BYG Jacob]

Center Ingesting a little dry air. Will rebound in 6 hours...

Lame

[drezee]

So that is a 6mb drop in 3 hours...fast

[chaser1]

5 mile COC?? Such a small core. A small cut-off pinching off to the southwest, really good upper air diffluence and high octane SST's make me think that Gordon may very well come in as a high end Cat. 2 (but a potential for stronger). It seems to be moving rather quick yet in spite of that we're really seeing some pretty impressive vertical alignment beginning to take place. If it significantly slows for a number of hours, we probably will see RI. Honestly, I think we might see some surprising model output at 0Z once initialized with a distinctly deeper storm. Current HWRF showing 993 mb at landfall. I think that's gonna change. With regard to intensity, I'd pay special attention to that model for this event

[Frank P]

Will not be as steep as Elena's angle of approach to the MS coast, but close... Elena's surge was about 8 feet in Biloxi... a larger and stronger storm than Gordon currently is... max surge I see out of this as a low end Cat 1 with this angle would be 6 or 7 feet, my SWAG however..

[MississippiWx]

As quickly as it came together, the core falls apart. Odd. Such small cores are not resistant to much. May have sucked up dry air.

[RL3AO]

The next 12 to 24 hours look fairly favorable still. Most of the system is still overland. If it can get a solid burst of convection over the center, it can still make a run at a low end cat 1.

[Aric Dunn]

The next 12 to 24 hours look fairly favorable still. Most of the system is still overland. If it can get a solid burst of convection over the center, it can still make a run at a low end cat 1.

lol maybe its all the red tide...

[MississippiWx]

Not often we get to watch core development. If conditions are still good, it will likely give it a go again. Has to have another burst of convection.

[CW0262]

As quickly as it came together, the core falls apart. Odd. Such small cores are not resistant to much. May have sucked up dry air.

agree

[MississippiWx]

The next 12 to 24 hours look fairly favorable still. Most of the system is still overland. If it can get a solid burst of convection over the center, it can still make a run at a low end cat 1.

lol maybe its all the red tide...

Hurricane hunters caused some intense shear briefly lol

[floridasun78]

nhc going live face book about ts at 2:30

[SoupBone]

The next 12 to 24 hours look fairly favorable still. Most of the system is still overland. If it can get a solid burst of convection over the center, it can still make a run at a low end cat 1.

lol maybe its all the red tide...

Nick Saban is so powerful, he causes a collapse in the core.

So does it appear that the center is a little north and east of the NHC's projected path?

[bella_may]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see it gain strength quickly once if moves a little farther west

[johngaltfla]

Moving a little east of the nhc cone


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You'll find the cone in first 12 hours fluctuates a lot. Once the storm's genesis into a stronger system becomes apparent, the accuracy will improve as far threats. Would I be shocked (my opinion only) if they extended watches and warnings eastwards? No, but right now they have a decent idea what parts of the gulf coast will be impacted.

[stormhunter7]

Think it was the shear...and some drier air that came up from SW. Should mix out in few hours. Given how quick inner core happened... One would expect higher forecast the next 24 hours

[MississippiWx]

Aaaand the core is already organizing again.