ATL: GORDON - Models

slamdaddy · #101 Postby **slamdaddy** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:32 pm

Anyone got any intel on this CONUS HD (60HR) model on weather.us ? Accuracy, where it is derived from etc etc. Thought it was an HD of the GFS but not.

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 0200z.html

#102 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:50 pm

slamdaddy wrote:Anyone got any intel on this CONUS HD (60HR) model on weather.us ? Accuracy, where it is derived from etc etc. Thought it was an HD of the GFS but not.

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 0200z.html

No. What I would say is it’s 10 hours slower and mostly east of the ‘reliable guidance.’ Whether that’s right or not remains to be seen of course. Slower and farther east seems counter intuitive with Gordon, but maybe there is some resistance to the ridge at first then a soft spot?

#103 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:24 pm

12Z HWRF looks more reasonable than the 6Z run.

slamdaddy · #104 Postby **slamdaddy** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:36 pm

Steve wrote:
slamdaddy wrote:Anyone got any intel on this CONUS HD (60HR) model on weather.us ? Accuracy, where it is derived from etc etc. Thought it was an HD of the GFS but not.

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 0200z.html

No. What I would say is it’s 10 hours slower and mostly east of the ‘reliable guidance.’ Whether that’s right or not remains to be seen of course. Slower and farther east seems counter intuitive with Gordon, but maybe there is some resistance to the ridge at first then a soft spot?

I have actually used the CONUS HD for when I plan to bbq to dodge rain and it seemed to be fairly accurate...but that is like at 12 hours or so.

#105 Postby **KimmieLa** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:44 pm

Steve wrote:Yeah. If the EC is right, it’s going to be on the western edge of the guidance. You can see the high very well on visible and wv. Pushing from the east and down from the NE and N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

Can see it plainly on water vapor!

#106 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:06 pm

Some updates

12km NAM 18z hits LA/MS border at midnight tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90318&fh=6

20z HRRR shows it moving toward the AL/FL border but high pushing down from the ne. It only goes to 18 hours but would appear to head toward MS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90320&fh=5

3km NAM shows eastern Harrison Co. hit around midnight tomorrow as 981mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0318&fh=84

18z RGEM is into Hancock Co. (SWMS) about 11pm tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0318&fh=34

artist · #107 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:10 pm

#108 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:49 pm

18Z GFS

#109 Postby **KimmieLa** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:51 pm

tolakram wrote:18Z GFS

That sure seems to be further west!

PTrackerLA · #110 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:02 pm

18z HWRF is coming in much weaker the lowest pressure is 1005mb. It has also shifted West from the 12z but I'm not quite sure what to make of this run. Gordon looks heavily sheared as it approaches landfall on the radar view.

#111 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:07 pm

Link please

PTrackerLA wrote:18z HWRF is coming in much weaker the lowest pressure is 1005mb. It has also shifted West from the 12z but I'm not quite sure what to make of this run. Gordon looks heavily sheared as it approaches landfall on the radar view.

#112 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:09 pm

18Z HWRF says nothing big.

Blinhart · #113 Postby **Blinhart** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:13 pm

I'm thinking it will be coming in further West and a little stronger and later.

Sambucol · #114 Postby **Sambucol** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:43 pm

Blinhart wrote:I'm thinking it will be coming in further West and a little stronger and later.

Would that put the upper TX coast in the cone?

sphelps8681 · #115 Postby **sphelps8681** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:01 pm

Sambucol wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I'm thinking it will be coming in further West and a little stronger and later.

Would that put the upper TX coast in the cone?

I was thinking the same thing.

#116 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:00 pm

12km NAM slightly weaker than 18z run (1 closed isobar circle instead of 2) but the center is a hair WSW. Looks to be a WMS or ELA landfall.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=19

#117 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:05 pm

HRRR @ 00z makes it to Jackson Co. landfall around 10pm. Nudges Baldwin and Mobile Counties so you’d think if you were on Dauphin Island, you’d encounter close to TS conditions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=27

Was supposed to be in this forum.

#118 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:08 pm

NAM 3km is only out til 12 hours but is slightly south or ssw of the 18z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=12

Ditto 14 hours. Could be an LA hit on this one.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=14

17 hours it’s sw of the 18z position but 1002 v 996. So weaker and farther sw. Need about 5 more hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=17

#119 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:17 pm

3km Nam back to 997 hours at 22 hours.

996 at 24 hours and about at the Chandeleur Islands. This should be a Hancock Co MS or STP LA hit.

Landfall around the LA/ME border about 11pm tomorrow night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=28

#120 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:27 pm

3K NAM. Remember this is not a dynamic model so not very good for tropical systems but can be useful for upper air patterns.

ATL: GORDON - Models

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