ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1036685411828023296



 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1036690577566445569



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1036682886580264960



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1036688313028149248

[Kazmit]

I call shenanigans on the ECMWF, the only way I could see a storm threaten both Bermuda and Florida in that order would be if the Earth started spinning backwards. OTS is still very much on the table here and is looking more likely.

I agree. Usually if a storm were to affect both Bermuda and Florida, it would hit Florida first and head northeast. It's still possible, but seems very unlikely.

[Blown Away]

ECMWF/Euro 12z at 240 hours... Solid Cat 2/3 off Jacksonville after moving slightly S of W for nearly 4 days... Wow

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z EPS coming out soon, it'll be interesting to see how many of them shift more northwards through 120 hours.

EDIT: Turns out I misspelled "shift" and it translated that word to "poop". Had a mild panic attack there.

[LarryWx]

And this would make it only the 2nd TC on record since 1851 to be as far north as 17.5N at 35W and make it to the CONUS. The only one on record to do so is last year's Irma. No TC north of 18N when at 35W has made it across.

[Highteeld]

12z EPS coming out soon, it'll be interesting to see how many of them poop more northwards through 120 hours.

I would think quite a few. Hours 126-150 looked like an escape route OTS.

[mlfreeman]

I want to see how many ensembles project it to follow a 1964 Dora track.

It could avoid Bermuda and still screw us over.

[JaxGator]

ECMWF/Euro 12z at 240 hours... Solid Cat 2/3 off Jacksonville after moving slightly S of W for nearly 4 days... Wow

Oh wow....good thing it's 10 days, but still, eye opening. The only storm I remember that came/dipped SW, then W before hitting North Florida (almost a hurricane) was Beryl 2012. However the track reminds me of Dora and Andrew, though further north for the latter. Either way, Bermuda and the East Coast should monitor. Still hoping for OTS solution.

[hurricaneCW]

The only was this is going OTS is if the central Atlantic trough can scoop it up, if that doesn't happen then it's going to the US.

That east coast ridging has been incredibly persistent and has verified stronger than forecast. I think Gfs is out to lunch here.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF Operational run is highly unlikely to verify in fact most ensemble members shifted way north this afternoon.

[bamajammer4eva]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1036701825838329856

[BobHarlem]

EPS trending back out to sea

[pgoss11]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1036701825838329856

Just maybe the GFS has been right all along.

[Visioen]

Has north Florida ever had a Hurricane strike from the Northeast? Just weird.

It's a 240 hour forecast. Yesterday it was Chesapeake. Today it is North Florida. Tonight's run will be somewhere else. It's how it works 10 days out.

So we shouldn't talk about things 10 days out? I tought this thread was exactly where to do so.

I think it's an interesting question, and can help to assess the credibility of such a scenario, even if it is improbable right now.

[hurricaneCW]

No doubt it would be historic if Florence somehow made it to the US, it's really going to depend on how far north it gets before the ridge builds in. Regardless, it looks likely that the waves behind it will track much further west. A lot of activity popping up indeed.

[pgoss11]

Has north Florida ever had a Hurricane strike from the Northeast? Just weird.

It's a 240 hour forecast. Yesterday it was Chesapeake. Today it is North Florida. Tonight's run will be somewhere else. It's how it works 10 days out.

So we shouldn't talk about things 10 days out? I tought this thread was exactly where to do so.

I think it's an interesting question, and can help to assess the credibility of such a scenario, even if it is improbable right now.

Thanks for that support of my question. I was actually just curious. I don't even live in Florida but it really seemed to be odd angle for North Florida to be hit by a hurricane.

[Kazmit]

It's still fairly long range. I wouldn't be surprised if the models continued to "windshield wipe" for the next few days. Too early to tell whether this will affect the US, Bermuda, or go OTS.

[plasticup]

GFS somehow believing this will strengthen to a Cat 2 in 18 hours.

Well that's a testable hypothesis

[toad strangler]

12z EPS coming out soon, it'll be interesting to see how many of them poop more northwards through 120 hours.

I would think quite a few. Hours 126-150 looked like an escape route OTS.

You end up looking golden here lol... sometimes I wonder why bother with a single operational that gets all the hype

[MJGarrison]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1036701825838329856

I think what this shows (at least for this run) is that margins are slim. A small change could send this out to sea or back toward CONUS


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