ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#941 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:53 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Wonder if this promotes or aggravates the break up of the red tide bloom



Scientists had suspected runoff from the enormous amount of water dumped on Florida by five tropical storms in 2004 contributed to red tides the following year, but a recent study indicates some of the nutrients actually came from groundwater leaching up through the ocean floor.

Red tides, which may not always be biologically harmful, are caused by rapid growth of algae in saltwater estuaries and coastal waters. With tens of thousands, even millions of cells per gallon of water, the blooms can make the water appear brown or red.

Along much of the Florida Gulf coastline, red tides are caused by a species called Karenia brevis, which can produce toxins that can kill marine mammals like whales, seals and otters and can lead to irritation of the eyes and respiratory systems of humans and other animals.

Researchers at the University of South Florida and the U.S. Geological Survey in St. Petersburg, Fla., sought to identify how the rainfall from the hurricanes of August and September 2004 were linked to the extreme red tide event that started early in 2005.

They used data from NASA environmental satellites as well as observations from ships, research buoys operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and geochemical tracers to study how the red tide evolved. They reported their findings last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Red tides occur in the same area off the west-central coast of Florida almost every year, mostly between August and March, from north of Tampa to south of Naples.


But last year's red tide was unusual because it lasted an entire year and killed fish, turtles and birds as well as marine mammals.

During the previous hurricane season, Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne crossed Florida, dumping as much as 27 inches of rain on portions of central Florida in less than two months.

Satellite images showed that by the end of December the red tide bloom extended over 425 square miles; by late September 2005, it covered more than 26,000 square miles.

"Runoff alone provided insufficient nitrogen to support this bloom," said USF researcher Chuanmin Hu. "Submarine groundwater discharge injects water coming from the water table underneath Florida into the ocean floor, below the ocean's surface and off the coast."

The researchers used dye tracers dumped into some of Florida's famous submarine springs to confirm that inland supplies of nutrients could migrate out into the ocean beneath the ground and sea floor.

Other studies already have shown that submarine groundwater is a larger source of nutrients into Tampa Bay than local rivers even when rainfall is average.

"We believe that submarine groundwater discharge provides the missing nutrients, and may trigger and maintain red tides off west-central Florida," he added.


Groundwater discharges may explain not only why red tides seem to happen in the same area most years, but also why they happen frequently in other coastal regions of the Gulf, the researchers said.

The study also put to rest another misconception about hurricanes and red tides. It had been thought that big tropical storms tend to break up the algae blooms.

But the researchers found that as Hurricane Dennis spun past the area on the way to the Florida panhandle in July and Hurricane Katrina brushed the Keys on the way to Louisiana and Mississippi in August, they caused significant water mixing and storm surges that washed dead fish ashore.

Yet after sediment settled on the ocean floor, the blooms appeared to grow even more extensive.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#942 Postby StormPyrate » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:59 pm

Interesting
thank you
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#943 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:00 pm

The mid and upple level circ are slowly becoming more defined. This has plenty of time to deepen rapidly.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#944 Postby MidnightRain » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:17 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:If you extrapolate a line from where the center was this morning according to NHC over Key Largo to where it is now just west of Marco Island you end up near Pensacola. It better start gaining more longitude or warnings are going to be need further eastward across the FL Panhandle! IMO

Yeah I expected him to be further off the coast than this by now. I think increased speed has put the building ridge to the east behind schedule. Going to need a significant shift west to clear the panhandle IMO.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#945 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:26 pm

Definitely some interesting structural changes on visible throughout the day. This morning it had a more "blobby" look to it, now it has a more typical spiral banding shape.

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#946 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:28 pm

The people The Weather Channel puts on TV are not as good as they used to be. Their "specialist" is repeatedly saying shear is tearing apart the storms over North Florida which is impeding strengthening. That's called outflow, man. Come on. It's favorable for development. :roll:

Think Gordon has kind of leveled off in intensity for now. Core keeps acting like it wants to organize further, but doesn't. Gordon has shown he can strengthen quickly, though.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#947 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:29 pm

Final landfall looking closer to Gulfport or even Biloxi. Hard to say about the intensity. It my fluctuate 10-20 mph up or down at times. Could be 70 mph at landfall, could be 50. Can't rule out a hurricane, but I think odds are it won't be that strong.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#948 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:30 pm

There definitely is some wind shear impacting Gordon, you can see the thunderstorm cloudtops over Cuba streaming north from the ULL.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#949 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:34 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#950 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:37 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Wonder if this promotes or aggravates the break up of the red tide bloom


Blows a lot of it out to sea, breaks it up while the storm is closer to Naples. It is not strong enough to disperse it completely.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#951 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:38 pm

If you were to plot the pressure drop of a weak system spinning up in MB per hour even under favorable conditions it would ramp.

The first six hours it might only drop 2 mb, the rapid intensification pressure drops occur later perhaps near hurricane strength before landfall in this case.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#952 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:38 pm

Serious deterioration of conditions in last few hours...Gusting with fog-like sheets of rain...Intensifying cyclone overhead and I've lived down here long enough to know the difference...Gust shook computer screen while typing...
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#953 Postby crimi481 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:39 pm

The bands near center - should come over my head soon. Englewood fl. Good gusts now
Should i bring in the tomato plants?
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#954 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:40 pm

Hurricane warning issued.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories: 5 PM advisory=Hurricane Warning Issued

#955 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:42 pm

TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to Dauphin
Island, Alabama.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Upper Florida Keys and from
Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.2 North,
longitude 82.6 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center
of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of
Florida early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the
central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday
night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and
Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along
the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South
Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
are possible over the southern Florida peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and
southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few
hours in the warning area across southwestern Florida. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf
Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions
expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along
with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data
supporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier
5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become
somewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance
is still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right
up until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is
forecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and
mid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back
to the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous
forecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back
and forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to or a little north of the latest consensus models.

Overall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery
has steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the
inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features
have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern
Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to
indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that
would generally hinder development. However, the global models'
upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern
that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be
moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the
cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just
before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a
blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the
Florida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high
as 8 inches.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 26.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#956 Postby typhoonty » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:42 pm

Sanibel wrote:Serious deterioration of conditions in last few hours...Gusting with fog-like sheets of rain...Intensifying cyclone overhead and I've lived down here long enough to know the difference...Gust shook computer screen while typing...


Hey Sanibel. I'm in Iona on the very eastern edge of the main band. How strong would you say the winds are? I thought they shouldve extended the warning north to Boca Grande
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#957 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:42 pm

Gordon now officially forecast to become a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#958 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:44 pm

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#959 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:45 pm

Interesting advisory. I wonder if the cone shifts right just a tad in the next 12 hours.
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#960 Postby KimmieLa » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:45 pm

Sanibel wrote:Serious deterioration of conditions in last few hours...Gusting with fog-like sheets of rain...Intensifying cyclone overhead and I've lived down here long enough to know the difference...Gust shook computer screen while typing...


Stay safe and thanks for reporting to us what you are seeing.
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