ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

Rain has stopped, at least for the time being, in Kendall.

its finished here too, storm total 3.05, been a tough day surviving the wrath of Gordon but our preps ensured we made out alright

jumped over to the 92L threads and that system has a ridging in place and decent conditions dead ahead, roh roh

[jlauderdal]

saved loop
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Good loop, tolakram. Looks better on radar again. It's getting further away from Florida which seems to be helping. Also, maybe helps that its getting into deeper, warmer water.

Several hours ago being over the Everglades and S FL was was considered beneficial.

the everglades has proven to do little if anything to knock down tropical systems

[Ubuntwo]

saved loop
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Good loop, tolakram. Looks better on radar again. It's getting further away from Florida which seems to be helping. Also, maybe helps that its getting into deeper, warmer water.

Several hours ago being over the Everglades and S FL was was considered beneficial.

Beneficial when compared to being over less swampy and more developed land. The area is passed over was pretty much just bathwater with grass. Now it's parallel to a developed and less swampy area, which would cause more weakening.

[toad strangler]

the everglades has proven to do little if anything to knock down tropical systems

Of course. Point was, what is the benefit from moving away from FL now when being over S FL hours earlier was a plus. Just seems contradictory, that’s all.

[toad strangler]

Good loop, tolakram. Looks better on radar again. It's getting further away from Florida which seems to be helping. Also, maybe helps that its getting into deeper, warmer water.

Several hours ago being over the Everglades and S FL was was considered beneficial.

Beneficial when compared to being over less swampy and more developed land. The area is passed over was pretty much just bathwater with grass. Now it's parallel to a developed and less swampy area, which would cause more weakening.

But there is zero elevation.

[MississippiWx]

Several hours ago being over the Everglades and S FL was was considered beneficial.

Beneficial when compared to being over less swampy and more developed land. The area is passed over was pretty much just bathwater with grass. Now it's parallel to a developed and less swampy area, which would cause more weakening.

But there is zero elevation.

To strengthen, tropical cyclones need warm water with depth. Sure, they can organize and even briefly strengthen over places like the Everglades. However, it needed to move away if it wanted to restart a strengthening phase which it seems to be doing now.

[artist]

[Big Easy Breeze]

the everglades has proven to do little if anything to knock down tropical systems

Of course. Point was, what is the benefit from moving away from FL now when being over S FL hours earlier was a plus. Just seems contradictory, that’s all.

It could be the "brown water" effect. It is what happens over Southeastern Lousisiana as well. NASA is currently conducting a study on the real affects brown water may have on a storm. I would guess since the water is show shallow it is a lot warmer than the GOM or ocean surface water. I guess you could equate it to a frying pan with boiling water in it. Not sure but just guessing.

[tolakram]

LLC almost exposed IMO. My guess is that it will struggle with northerly shear for hours, with conditions probably improving tomorrow.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=915&y=934.5&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Nimbus]

Another thing that is evident in the water vapor imagery is that the upper level low that has been providing shear over the system is beginning to fill and roll west. Tomorrow the environment may be favorable. Be interesting to see what the HWRF does with it as that model has finer resolution and does well for a rapidly deepening system.

[Big Easy Breeze]

LLC almost exposed IMO. My guess is that it will struggle with northerly shear for hours, with conditions probably improving tomorrow.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=915&y=934.5&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Don't see the shear you are talking about but do see some dry air intrusion on the N and NW side currently.

[Frank P]

Current forecast track will pretty much have Gordon go right over my house on the beach... unlikely but been a while since I've seen an eye (Elean and Georges)

[Steve]

Here is everything playing out in the bigger picture on water vapor. There appears to be a high centered in or around Kentucky. That would be the so-called banana ridge in this case. There are outflow bands pretty far north into Florida but if you see the cloud lines above those, they are inverted to the shape of the southern periphery of that high. I’m not saying that will affect a path farther west in the end. It could move right up to the bottom of the ridge farther east on the Panhandle based on current trajectory or it could move toward Mississippi as that’s where the current alley is.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

Also the RGEM seemed to have handled the move across and near SWFL pretty well. I don’t know if it’s the best performing so far, but it was good with the size and anticipated radar presentation and not bad on staying closer to SWFL than some of the other models showed.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Of course. Point was, what is the benefit from moving away from FL now when being over S FL hours earlier was a plus. Just seems contradictory, that’s all.

It could be the "brown water" effect. It is what happens over Southeastern Lousisiana as well. NASA is currently conducting a study on the real affects brown water may have on a storm. I would guess since the water is show shallow it is a lot warmer than the GOM or ocean surface water. I guess you could equate it to a frying pan with boiling water in it. Not sure but just guessing.

So...more like a spicy appetizer, then?

[TCu]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

That's an app - - RadarScope.

Oh, it is, isn't it?

I have that on my phone. Just looked different from my Mac. Thanks!

That's the Windows 10 version.

[tolakram]

LLC almost exposed IMO. My guess is that it will struggle with northerly shear for hours, with conditions probably improving tomorrow.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=915&y=934.5&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Don't see the shear you are talking about but do see some dry air intrusion on the N and NW side currently.

Watch the evolution of the upper low over Cuba. It's been very very close all day, and good conditions are not that far away from Gordon as far as I can tell, but right now northerly shear has increased.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-08-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[TCu]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

I bought RadarScope for Windows 10. Unfortunately it only supports 6 frames right now, while the android version supports 20 with a yearly subscription.

A new Windows 10 update with the same functionality as iOS and Android will be released soon.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Here is everything playing out in the bigger picture on water vapor. Their appears to be a high centered in or around Kentucky. That would be the so-called banana ridge in this case. There are outflow bands pretty far north into Florida but if you see the cloud lines above those, they are inverted to the shape of the southern periphery of that high. I’m not saying that will affect a path farther west in the end. It could move right up to the bottom of the ridge farther east on the Panhandle based on current trajectory or it could move toward Mississippi as that’s where the current alley is.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

That alley is slowly moving west and is becoming more SE/NW orientated. IMO as Gordon gets farther away from Fla., the more westerly it will go with a NW bend towards landfall, ending up pretty near the current forecast landfall +/- 20 miles either way; east or west.

[MississippiWx]

The core is looking much better on radar right now. If shear is around, it certainly isn't bothering the core at the moment. We will see if it holds together this time. The circulation is dead center of the CDO, so no way it is becoming exposed.

[tolakram]

By the way, tolakram, what website did you use for that loop?

I bought RadarScope for Windows 10. Unfortunately it only supports 6 frames right now, while the android version supports 20 with a yearly subscription.

A new Windows 10 update with the same functionality as iOS and Android will be released soon.

Thanks TCu, that's good to know.