ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is verifying wrong on pressure, has 995 at initialization

[RL3AO]

That would be a pretty remarkable track. I'll continue to predict something in the middle of the Euro and GFS...e.g. between Bermuda and the East Coast.

[OuterBanker]

Pretty remarkable day at the beach. Both air and water the same low to mid 80's. Shore break 2 to 3 ft. Perfect day and one of the reasons I live here. But, it seems even better news that the modeling is moving away from us. I knew that 10 days out is hardly ever correct.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS almost directly ontop of the ECMWF at 90 hours, but they differ quite a bit on strength. The GFS simply doesn't see Florence weakening like the ECMWF does.

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS almost directly ontop of the ECMWF at 90 hours, but they differ quite a bit on strength. The GFS simply doesn't see Florence weakening like the ECMWF does.

But the strength this run isn’t completely ridiculous, the pressure is a little lower than what i expect but not in the 960s like the 12z

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS has an intensifying hurricane when westerly winds are nearing 30kt.

No.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS has an intensifying hurricane when westerly winds are nearing 30kt.

No.

Yep looks like another trash run, even with the 12z run it was a decent amount east of the ensemble mean and in terms of pressure there is no way this run is below 990 with that kind of shear

[toad strangler]

The Uber ridge that the Euro keeps showing simply isn’t there on the GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

The Uber ridge that the Euro keeps showing simply isn’t there on the GFS.

Could be the GFS bias and the thing with the GFS is beyond 3 days is when it’s problems/biases show in the runs so beyond 72hrs on the GFS is a crapshoot

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Uber ridge that the Euro keeps showing simply isn’t there on the GFS.

There's no uber ridge in place by 144 hours. There is a huge opportunity that Florence has to go out to sea, and it entirely depends on how strong it is by that point.

[Highteeld]

The Uber ridge that the Euro keeps showing simply isn’t there on the GFS.

There's no uber ridge in place by 144 hours. There is a huge opportunity that Florence has to go out to sea, and it entirely depends on how strong it is by that point.

Exactly. Between hours 120 and 150 there is a significant weakness in the ridge on the Euro. Could easily go OTS if Florence is even a cat 1 at that point.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think I just found something that might affect the track. Typhoon Jebi was forecast to recurve, and now the latest track has it crossing Japan and going NNE into Russia instead of recurving towards Alaska which would have more influence on the strength of the high pressure we've been looking at in the NE US...any thoughts on that?
Seems if the typhoon doesnt recurve, it wont pump the Alaskan ridge, thus less of a central US trof and a weaker ridge over the Atlantic

[toad strangler]

The Uber ridge that the Euro keeps showing simply isn’t there on the GFS.

There's no uber ridge in place by 144 hours. There is a huge opportunity that Florence has to go out to sea, and it entirely depends on how strong it is by that point.

True it’s not in place at 144 but building back in, so what is keeping Florence from slipping away then?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Uber ridge that the Euro keeps showing simply isn’t there on the GFS.

There's no uber ridge in place by 144 hours. There is a huge opportunity that Florence has to go out to sea, and it entirely depends on how strong it is by that point.

True it’s not in place at 144 but building back in, so what is keeping Florence from slipping away then?

The ridge builds in after that, but by that point Florence has been caught by that weakness and slips away.

[toad strangler]

There's no uber ridge in place by 144 hours. There is a huge opportunity that Florence has to go out to sea, and it entirely depends on how strong it is by that point.

True it’s not in place at 144 but building back in, so what is keeping Florence from slipping away then?

The ridge builds in after that, but by that point Florence has been caught by that weakness and slips away.

Not on the Euro. At least that’s what I’m talking about. The GFS is obvious.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

True it’s not in place at 144 but building back in, so what is keeping Florence from slipping away then?

The ridge builds in after that, but by that point Florence has been caught by that weakness and slips away.

Not on the Euro. At least that’s what I’m talking about. The GFS is obvious.

On the Euro the system is hit by 20-30 knots of shear by day 5 and stays weak enough to miss the weakness.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS operational is on the eastern end of the ensembles, it’s a very delicate steering pattern and if Florence is weaker than the GFS has it it could be westward to the US

[gatorcane]

The GFS just barely lets Florence escape this time:

[gatorcane]

Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida.

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not liking the trend of further west every Time.

Lets throw out that GFS