ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Yeah I mentioned last night how that ULL was making a run SSW hard last night and expected it to be S of Cuba by midday but it turned around ??

If anything I think the ULLs to its SW and the one to the north retrograding westward with it is helping pushing the northerly shear that is over the central GOM towards the west out of the way of Gordon as clearly seen below compared to 24 hrs ago. Its fast westerly motion is what's preventing currently from strengthening any further in the short term, is having a hard time getting a nice inflow, IMO.

The one to the SW I would bet is causing the W movement some I think? it was Claudette that made a L/hook in the GOM into TX over and around the ULL.This has been a year with alot of ULL about.

To some degree the ULL might be causing a more westerly heading the last few hours but the real corporate is the strong east to west low to mid level jet across the northern GOM, check out tonight's Tallahassee sounding, east winds from the surface all the way up to h40!

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[Steve]

HRRR @ 00z makes it to Jackson Co. landfall around 10pm. Nudges Baldwin and Mobile Counties so you’d think if you were on Dauphin Island, you’d encounter close to TS conditions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=27

^^ wrong forum sorry.

[Blinhart]

With it falling apart right now, the possibility of it going further West is greater, if I'm not mistaken.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep definitely exposed now. Makes you wonder if the GFS and EURO are correct regarding intensity.

[mcheer23]

With it falling apart right now, the possibility of it going further West is greater, if I'm not mistaken.

These small systems have fluctuation with their intensity. It's going to be a rollercoaster ride.

[bella_may]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see the COC relocate farther to the east

[bella_may]

With it falling apart right now, the possibility of it going further West is greater, if I'm not mistaken.

These small systems have fluctuation with their intensity. It's going to be a rollercoaster ride.

Yep. I’ve seen many storms look like they’re about to die and then hit the right environment and blow up

[NDG]

That's one heck of a stacked ridge over the mid Atlantic this evening, 597dm!

[NDG]

Per the recon's latest pass it looks like the COC is near 26.8N & 84.1W

55 knot flight level winds on the northern quadrant.

020800 2654N 08403W 8420 01572 0102 +171 //// 127053 055 051 007 01

[artist]

URNT12 KNHC 040039
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072018
A. 04/00:22:40Z
B. 26.67 deg N 083.61 deg W
C. 850 mb 1469 m
D. 1005 mb
E. 170 deg 21 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 48 kt
I. 080 deg 4 nm 00:21:00Z
J. 169 deg 41 kt
K. 080 deg 4 nm 00:21:00Z
L. 27 kt
M. 090 deg 0 nm 00:22:30Z
N. 332 deg 17 kt
O. 233 deg 3 nm 00:23:30Z
P. 17 C / 1520 m
Q. 22 C / 1527 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF305 0307A GORDON OB 12
MAX FL WIND 51 KT 322 / 5 NM 23:05:00Z


Latest
URNT15 KNHC 040212
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 32 20180904
020230 2643N 08359W 8427 01571 0089 +179 +163 205026 027 035 002 00
020300 2644N 08400W 8425 01568 0083 +178 +166 206030 031 037 001 00
020330 2645N 08402W 8430 01558 0070 +189 +172 208025 030 038 002 00
020400 2646N 08403W 8425 01556 0057 +200 +169 220018 022 033 001 00
020430 2647N 08405W 8427 01550 0049 +207 +166 220008 016 030 001 00
020500 2648N 08406W 8424 01553 0046 +209 +161 095006 008 022 001 00
020530 2649N 08408W 8430 01548 0047 +209 +161 064015 017 022 001 03
020600 2650N 08408W 8423 01553 0046 +209 +155 077021 023 035 002 00
020630 2651N 08407W 8434 01543 0052 +196 +170 089029 031 047 004 03
020700 2652N 08405W 8410 01570 0065 +181 +179 109038 040 055 004 01
020730 2653N 08404W 8428 01556 0077 +181 //// 129048 054 053 005 01
020800 2654N 08403W 8420 01572 0102 +171 //// 127053 055 051 007 01
020830 2655N 08402W 8422 01577 0110 +173 +173 124051 054 050 008 00
020900 2656N 08400W 8426 01575 0116 +170 +170 120046 052 049 008 00
020930 2657N 08359W 8423 01581 0123 +170 +170 125044 047 048 016 00
021000 2658N 08358W 8434 01576 0136 +156 //// 124048 049 046 006 01
021030 2659N 08357W 8428 01586 //// +144 //// 121049 049 043 005 01
021100 2700N 08356W 8426 01589 0129 +149 //// 124048 050 040 004 01
021130 2701N 08354W 8427 01590 0136 +157 //// 122045 047 047 006 01
021200 2702N 08353W 8413 01603 0142 +164 //// 121047 056 051 017 01

[artist]

[NDG]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 2:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2018
Storm Name: Gordon (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 18

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 2:04:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.79N 84.09W
B. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the SW (231°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39kts (44.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 1:43:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 205° at 31kts (From the SSW at 35.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (125°) of center fix at 2:03:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55kts (63.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the N (7°) of center fix at 2:07:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 127° at 57kts (From the SE at 65.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 2:12:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (44°) from the flight level center at 2:12:30Z

[bella_may]

Hmm thought for sure it had weakened a tad...

[tolakram]

Those decoded messages are unreadable, too much text.

191
URNT12 KNHC 040225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072018
A. 04/02:04:50Z
B. 26.79 deg N 084.09 deg W
C. 850 mb 1475 m
D. 1005 mb
E. 125 deg 10 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 39 kt
I. 134 deg 75 nm 01:43:00Z
J. 205 deg 31 kt
K. 125 deg 6 nm 02:03:00Z
L. 55 kt
M. 007 deg 4 nm 02:07:00Z
N. 127 deg 57 kt
O. 044 deg 19 nm 02:12:30Z
P. 18 C / 1529 m
Q. 21 C / 1521 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF305 0307A GORDON OB 18
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 044 / 19 NM 02:12:30Z
;

LLC outrunning the convection.

[Dean4Storms]

Holding steady really. Until it can wrap deep convection doubt it does little strengthening.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040223
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 33 20180904
021230 2703N 08352W 8460 01558 0145 +160 +160 128051 057 047 015 00
021300 2704N 08351W 8424 01597 0151 +155 +155 121045 050 049 017 00
021330 2705N 08349W 8430 01590 0155 +148 +148 119042 045 047 014 00
021400 2706N 08348W 8423 01600 0154 +154 +154 120046 051 047 013 00
021430 2707N 08347W 8442 01582 0151 +159 +159 121048 052 048 011 03
021500 2708N 08346W 8421 01604 0149 +160 +160 122047 050 046 007 00
021530 2708N 08345W 8426 01603 0146 +155 //// 123048 050 047 006 01
021600 2709N 08343W 8426 01604 0145 +153 //// 126049 050 046 005 05
021630 2710N 08342W 8430 01601 0148 +152 //// 125048 050 046 004 01
021700 2711N 08341W 8427 01606 0147 +151 //// 126046 047 045 004 01
021730 2712N 08340W 8423 01611 //// +155 //// 128045 046 045 004 01
021800 2713N 08338W 8429 01606 //// +155 //// 130044 046 043 003 01
021830 2714N 08337W 8425 01611 //// +155 //// 129042 043 041 003 05
021900 2715N 08336W 8430 01607 0145 +157 +156 125045 047 041 003 01
021930 2716N 08335W 8425 01610 0147 +156 +152 123049 049 041 001 00
022000 2717N 08333W 8422 01615 0145 +160 +146 123048 049 040 001 00
022030 2718N 08332W 8425 01610 0144 +160 +145 123047 049 042 001 00
022100 2719N 08331W 8431 01607 0146 +160 +145 125045 046 040 002 00
022130 2720N 08330W 8425 01611 0145 +159 +146 126046 047 040 001 03
022200 2722N 08330W 8427 01609 0149 +154 +148 120044 047 041 003 03


URNT15 KNHC 040232
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 34 20180904
022230 2723N 08332W 8427 01611 0152 +153 +148 119042 045 040 002 00
022300 2724N 08334W 8426 01612 0152 +150 +148 120041 042 041 002 00
022330 2725N 08335W 8422 01614 0151 +151 +144 124041 043 040 002 00
022400 2727N 08337W 8425 01612 0150 +156 +142 125040 040 041 001 00
022430 2728N 08339W 8429 01610 0150 +156 +144 122037 039 041 001 00
022500 2729N 08340W 8423 01615 0150 +154 +150 119039 039 040 002 00
022530 2730N 08342W 8425 01612 0149 +155 +150 116042 044 040 001 00
022600 2732N 08343W 8425 01614 0153 +152 +148 115044 045 040 001 00
022630 2733N 08345W 8429 01612 0156 +150 +148 116046 047 038 002 03
022700 2735N 08346W 8422 01617 //// +148 //// 116049 051 036 001 01
022730 2737N 08347W 8428 01612 //// +150 //// 115049 050 037 001 01
022800 2738N 08347W 8425 01616 0159 +150 +147 116048 049 038 001 00
022830 2740N 08347W 8426 01617 //// +146 //// 114048 049 038 000 01
022900 2742N 08348W 8426 01617 0163 +147 +145 113049 050 037 000 01
022930 2744N 08348W 8425 01620 0163 +149 +143 111049 049 036 001 00
023000 2745N 08348W 8425 01621 0162 +150 +147 110048 049 037 001 01
023030 2747N 08349W 8425 01621 //// +146 //// 112047 048 034 002 01
023100 2749N 08349W 8427 01621 //// +147 //// 115046 047 034 001 01
023130 2751N 08349W 8429 01620 //// +150 //// 114047 047 034 002 01
023200 2752N 08350W 8425 01623 0166 +151 +140 114046 047 034 001 01

[bella_may]

Holding steady really. Until it can wrap deep convection doubt it does little strengthening.

Still a good 24 hours until it makes landfall. Wouldn’t count it out yet

[Hammy]

Holding steady really. Until it can wrap deep convection doubt it does little strengthening.

Most of the models that indicate strengthening don't do so for about 12 hours.

[MississippiWx]

Despite the look on satellite, recon obs remain very respectable, if not even more impressive than earlier.