ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[FLpanhandle91]

Beginnings of some hot towers firing near the coc.

[artist]

191
URNT12 KNHC 040225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072018
A. 04/02:04:50Z
B. 26.79 deg N 084.09 deg W
C. 850 mb 1475 m
D. 1005 mb
E. 125 deg 10 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 39 kt
I. 134 deg 75 nm 01:43:00Z
J. 205 deg 31 kt
K. 125 deg 6 nm 02:03:00Z
L. 55 kt
M. 007 deg 4 nm 02:07:00Z
N. 127 deg 57 kt
O. 044 deg 19 nm 02:12:30Z
P. 18 C / 1529 m
Q. 21 C / 1521 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF305 0307A GORDON OB 18
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 044 / 19 NM 02:12:30Z
;

[artist]

[NDG]

It will have to start on a NW heading like right now for it get back on the NHC's track tonight.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and will approach the north-central Gulf
Coast within the warning area late Tuesday afternoon or evening, and
move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and
Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along
the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after
Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations around 1 inch, with isolated heavier amounts
through Tuesday over the northwestern Bahamas and south
Florida. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 7 inches are
possible.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,
southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, and southeast Arkansas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday.

This rainfall may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Tuesday
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by Tuesday evening in the hurricane warning
area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

WSR-88D radar data from Tampa shows that the small inner core of
Gordon has lost some organization during the past few hours, and
GOES-16 satellite imagery and recent aircraft fixes indicate that
the low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of the
main convective mass. This suggests that there may be some light to
moderate westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently measured peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 57 kt, and SFMR winds of 50-55 kt. A blend
of these data yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt.

A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicates that there
is about 10-15 kt of westerly shear over the system. The SHIPS
guidance shows a slight relaxation of the shear during the next
12-18 hours while the system moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
of Mexico, which should allow for some strengthening. However,
Gordon is a small tropical cyclone and subtle changes in shear
(both up and down) can result in fairly quick intensity changes for
systems like this. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that shear
will not be prohibitive and that Gordon will become a hurricane
before reaching the northern Gulf coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours, then
follows the HFIP corrected consensus after landfall which shows
Gordon weakening rapidly over land.

Gordon is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The tropical
storm is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward
heading during the next few days while it moves around the
southwestern portion of a large deep-layer ridge centered over the
Mid-Atlantic states. After that time, the cyclone should decelerate
as it moves around the western periphery of the ridge. The track
guidance continues to be tightly clustered through 72 h, and no
significant changes were required to the previous NHC track
forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 26.9N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 28.3N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 30.0N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 31.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 32.9N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 34.6N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 39.5N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[MississippiWx]

Edit: wrong storm

At first I thought "It must be Stewart!"

Lol..I totally forgot about Florence and looked at its winds.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040249
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 35 20180904
023230 2754N 08350W 8425 01625 //// +148 //// 114047 048 034 001 01
023300 2756N 08350W 8424 01627 //// +146 //// 115047 047 034 001 01
023330 2758N 08351W 8429 01621 0167 +147 +144 116048 050 030 001 01
023400 2800N 08351W 8429 01621 //// +144 //// 116048 049 030 001 01
023430 2801N 08351W 8432 01620 //// +147 //// 117046 048 029 001 01
023500 2803N 08352W 8426 01627 //// +145 //// 116046 048 029 000 01
023530 2805N 08352W 8424 01629 //// +148 //// 117048 049 029 001 01
023600 2807N 08353W 8432 01623 0174 +149 +137 115049 050 029 000 00
023630 2808N 08353W 8426 01631 0176 +149 +138 113043 049 029 001 00
023700 2810N 08353W 8426 01627 0171 +148 +142 117045 048 029 001 05
023730 2812N 08354W 8424 01630 0170 +154 +142 114047 049 023 003 03
023800 2812N 08356W 8428 01632 0177 +149 +144 109041 044 030 002 05
023830 2812N 08358W 8425 01637 0179 +154 +141 111044 044 032 001 00
023900 2812N 08401W 8429 01634 0181 +152 +144 114045 046 031 002 00
023930 2812N 08403W 8426 01638 0183 +150 +146 115045 046 030 002 00
024000 2812N 08405W 8424 01642 0184 +153 +145 111042 045 034 001 00
024030 2812N 08407W 8429 01637 0183 +156 +144 113043 044 034 001 00
024100 2812N 08409W 8429 01639 0187 +150 //// 113041 043 029 004 01
024130 2812N 08411W 8425 01640 //// +150 //// 106039 040 030 003 01
024200 2812N 08414W 8429 01639 0187 +150 +149 110041 042 031 003 01

[MississippiWx]

Gordon holds steady. NHC believes shear is causing the appearance, but it's westerly shear (not predicted). They believe it will relax. Remains to be seen.

[edu2703]

From NHC Forecast Discussion

A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicates that there is about 10-15 kt of westerly shear over the system. The SHIPS guidance shows a slight relaxation of the shear during the next 12-18 hours while the system moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which should allow for some strengthening. However, Gordon is a small tropical cyclone and subtle changes in shear (both up and down) can result in fairly quick intensity changes for systems like this. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that shear will not be prohibitive and that Gordon will become a hurricane before reaching the northern Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours, then follows the HFIP corrected consensus after landfall which shows Gordon weakening rapidly over land.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0247.shtml

[Steve]

This, along with everything they don’t plot, is fairly convincing inside of 27 hours. Obv click 07 or 07.es
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040252
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 36 20180904
024230 2812N 08416W 8427 01639 0186 +150 +147 113042 043 031 003 00
024300 2812N 08418W 8431 01637 0183 +157 +145 108041 043 032 003 00
024330 2812N 08420W 8425 01642 0184 +153 +146 105035 039 031 003 00
024400 2812N 08422W 8426 01640 0183 +154 +140 112040 041 031 003 00
024430 2812N 08424W 8430 01637 0183 +158 +137 108040 041 031 003 00
024500 2812N 08427W 8426 01640 0182 +157 +141 106038 040 034 001 00
024530 2812N 08429W 8427 01638 0181 +156 +145 105037 038 031 002 00
024600 2812N 08431W 8425 01640 0183 +155 +146 107038 038 031 002 00
024630 2812N 08433W 8426 01639 0185 +152 +146 107038 038 031 001 00
024700 2812N 08435W 8425 01639 //// +150 //// 106039 040 032 000 01
024730 2812N 08437W 8427 01639 0184 +150 +149 104038 039 031 001 01
024800 2812N 08439W 8425 01639 0183 +150 +147 101038 039 031 002 00
024830 2812N 08442W 8429 01637 0182 +151 +147 101036 038 031 002 01
024900 2812N 08444W 8425 01639 0181 +154 +146 103037 038 033 001 00
024930 2812N 08446W 8428 01637 0179 +157 +145 104037 037 032 001 00
025000 2812N 08448W 8428 01637 0178 +159 +143 099036 037 033 000 00
025030 2812N 08450W 8429 01636 0179 +156 +144 099035 036 032 001 00
025100 2812N 08452W 8429 01637 0179 +159 +140 096032 036 032 002 00
025130 2812N 08454W 8420 01643 0178 +158 +142 097030 032 031 002 00
025200 2812N 08457W 8425 01638 0180 +159 +141 099033 034 032 001 00

[MississippiWx]

The center is slowly being overtaken by convection again. Has to persist though.

[CaneCurious]

I don’t understand how they nudged the track east. It’s clearly moving wnw after moving due west for a while today. To my amateur storm brain that would mean a nudge to the west..??

[artist]

[BigB0882]

I don’t understand how they nudged the track east. It’s clearly moving wnw after moving due west for a while today. To my amateur storm brain that would mean a nudge to the west..??

My guess would be that any nudge west would only happen if the models show that after putting in the current COC. That would be in the runs until overnight or tomorrow morning i would guess.

[Dean4Storms]

Wonder with the convection all to the north and east if we won't see some wobbles by the center more northward overnight toward the convection. I know the deep layered ridge is a steering it but this small a core and center can usually get pulled into deep convection, seen it dozens of times.

[Aric Dunn]

and here comes the convection again. looking better this time

[mcheer23]

I think it will get it's act together overnight. Most likely will wake up to a slightly stronger storm

[MississippiWx]

and here comes the convection again. looking better this time

Yeah, but we've seen this song and dance several times today. Need to see it persist or expand..

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040252
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 36 20180904
024230 2812N 08416W 8427 01639 0186 +150 +147 113042 043 031 003 00
024300 2812N 08418W 8431 01637 0183 +157 +145 108041 043 032 003 00
024330 2812N 08420W 8425 01642 0184 +153 +146 105035 039 031 003 00
024400 2812N 08422W 8426 01640 0183 +154 +140 112040 041 031 003 00
024430 2812N 08424W 8430 01637 0183 +158 +137 108040 041 031 003 00
024500 2812N 08427W 8426 01640 0182 +157 +141 106038 040 034 001 00
024530 2812N 08429W 8427 01638 0181 +156 +145 105037 038 031 002 00
024600 2812N 08431W 8425 01640 0183 +155 +146 107038 038 031 002 00
024630 2812N 08433W 8426 01639 0185 +152 +146 107038 038 031 001 00
024700 2812N 08435W 8425 01639 //// +150 //// 106039 040 032 000 01
024730 2812N 08437W 8427 01639 0184 +150 +149 104038 039 031 001 01
024800 2812N 08439W 8425 01639 0183 +150 +147 101038 039 031 002 00
024830 2812N 08442W 8429 01637 0182 +151 +147 101036 038 031 002 01
024900 2812N 08444W 8425 01639 0181 +154 +146 103037 038 033 001 00
024930 2812N 08446W 8428 01637 0179 +157 +145 104037 037 032 001 00
025000 2812N 08448W 8428 01637 0178 +159 +143 099036 037 033 000 00
025030 2812N 08450W 8429 01636 0179 +156 +144 099035 036 032 001 00
025100 2812N 08452W 8429 01637 0179 +159 +140 096032 036 032 002 00
025130 2812N 08454W 8420 01643 0178 +158 +142 097030 032 031 002 00
025200 2812N 08457W 8425 01638 0180 +159 +141 099033 034 032 001 00