ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[SoupBone]

This, along with everything they don’t plot, is fairly convincing inside of 27 hours. Obv click 07 or 07.es
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

Are these updated automatically?

[Steve]

Wonder with the convection all to the north and east if we won't see some wobbles by the center more northward overnight toward the convection. I know the deep layered ridge is a steering it but this small a core and center can usually get pulled into deep convection, seen it dozens of times.

You are right. And there have been almost as many leading centers that left behind old convection to dissipate as they stepped WNW. You guys should get some action, probably even TS on Okaloosa Island, but models - outside of the globals that haven’t run yet - are keyed in tightly on Harrison Co. it’s at least even money. I’d agree that any adjustments would be toward the east, but this looks locked in with 24-27 hours to go.

[Steve]

This, along with everything they don’t plot, is fairly convincing inside of 27 hours. Obv click 07 or 07.es
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

Are these updated automatically?

I’m sure they are auto fed, but you have to refresh if you keep the window open.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040302
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 37 20180904
025230 2812N 08459W 8434 01630 0178 +159 +141 096031 032 034 001 00
025300 2812N 08501W 8424 01640 0179 +155 +143 095030 032 033 001 00
025330 2812N 08503W 8407 01659 //// +149 //// 091032 034 031 003 01
025400 2812N 08505W 8424 01639 0178 +156 +143 097031 032 032 001 00
025430 2812N 08507W 8429 01634 0179 +155 +145 097031 031 031 001 00
025500 2812N 08509W 8429 01634 0180 +155 +144 093030 031 032 001 00
025530 2812N 08511W 8425 01639 0180 +154 +146 088029 030 032 001 00
025600 2812N 08513W 8424 01639 0180 +155 +146 091030 031 030 001 00
025630 2812N 08515W 8427 01636 0180 +153 +147 093029 030 029 002 00
025700 2812N 08517W 8426 01637 0181 +153 +146 094029 029 031 001 00
025730 2812N 08520W 8425 01639 0179 +157 +147 093029 029 029 001 00
025800 2812N 08522W 8428 01636 0180 +153 +149 092029 030 029 001 01
025830 2812N 08524W 8429 01634 //// +150 //// 090029 029 028 001 01
025900 2812N 08526W 8424 01640 0183 +151 +146 088028 030 029 001 01
025930 2812N 08528W 8426 01637 0181 +153 +145 089025 026 029 001 00
030000 2812N 08530W 8428 01636 0179 +155 +146 090025 025 028 002 00
030030 2812N 08532W 8424 01639 0176 +157 +148 085025 026 030 001 00
030100 2812N 08534W 8425 01638 //// +151 //// 087026 027 030 001 01
030130 2811N 08536W 8431 01633 0177 +159 +147 084026 027 029 001 01
030200 2811N 08538W 8424 01640 0177 +158 +144 089024 027 031 001 00

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040312
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 38 20180904
030230 2811N 08540W 8424 01639 //// +156 //// 084023 025 030 001 01
030300 2811N 08542W 8435 01631 0178 +159 +151 084026 027 028 002 01
030330 2811N 08544W 8425 01638 0175 +159 +155 090026 027 031 001 00
030400 2811N 08546W 8426 01637 0175 +160 +157 089026 027 031 001 00
030430 2811N 08548W 8424 01640 0176 +158 +155 083026 026 030 001 01
030500 2811N 08550W 8427 01634 0175 +158 +151 081026 027 027 002 01
030530 2811N 08552W 8428 01634 0174 +162 +140 080025 026 023 001 03
030600 2810N 08554W 8425 01637 0174 +160 +140 081026 026 /// /// 03
030630 2809N 08553W 8426 01637 0176 +160 +152 089026 027 022 001 00
030700 2808N 08552W 8423 01639 0175 +160 +155 089025 026 023 001 00
030730 2807N 08550W 8429 01634 0174 +160 +152 091022 024 024 001 00
030800 2806N 08549W 8429 01634 0175 +160 +155 086022 022 024 002 00
030830 2805N 08548W 8425 01637 0176 +159 +146 092021 022 025 001 00
030900 2804N 08547W 8417 01648 0179 +155 +144 096021 022 025 001 00
030930 2802N 08545W 8430 01636 0181 +158 +147 091022 022 027 001 00
031000 2801N 08544W 8430 01637 0182 +155 +146 089021 022 027 001 00
031030 2800N 08543W 8430 01638 0183 +156 +148 089022 023 025 001 00
031100 2759N 08541W 8428 01639 0182 +156 +150 087022 023 025 001 00
031130 2758N 08540W 8438 01627 //// +156 //// 089020 022 026 000 01
031200 2757N 08539W 8425 01636 //// +151 //// 088020 020 026 001 01

[artist]

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040322
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 39 20180904
031230 2756N 08538W 8427 01634 0176 +155 +152 085022 024 027 001 01
031300 2755N 08536W 8425 01636 0176 +155 +147 086024 024 027 001 00
031330 2754N 08535W 8425 01636 0176 +159 +141 087023 023 029 000 00
031400 2753N 08534W 8426 01634 0176 +157 +147 088024 025 028 001 00
031430 2752N 08533W 8427 01634 0175 +156 +152 087024 025 027 001 01
031500 2751N 08532W 8425 01636 0175 +156 +150 085025 027 027 001 01
031530 2750N 08531W 8421 01638 0173 +161 +152 082024 027 029 010 03
031600 2748N 08529W 8440 01621 0186 +158 //// 085026 028 029 011 01
031630 2747N 08528W 8425 01634 0174 +153 +153 087026 028 025 003 01
031700 2746N 08527W 8432 01628 //// +149 //// 087028 029 026 002 01
031730 2745N 08526W 8426 01633 //// +156 //// 084028 029 028 001 01
031800 2744N 08525W 8426 01632 0173 +155 +153 085025 025 026 001 01
031830 2743N 08524W 8420 01644 0175 +160 +144 090025 025 027 002 00
031900 2742N 08522W 8428 01633 0174 +160 +143 091025 025 031 002 00
031930 2741N 08521W 8429 01632 0175 +159 +145 090023 024 033 001 00
032000 2740N 08520W 8426 01634 0175 +156 +147 087022 023 033 001 00
032030 2739N 08518W 8430 01631 0175 +160 +145 090023 024 032 000 00
032100 2737N 08517W 8426 01634 0176 +156 +145 090023 024 032 000 00
032130 2736N 08515W 8429 01632 0175 +155 +145 088025 025 032 001 00
032200 2735N 08514W 8430 01629 0174 +158 +144 085025 026 031 001 00

[Dean4Storms]

Wonder with the convection all to the north and east if we won't see some wobbles by the center more northward overnight toward the convection. I know the deep layered ridge is a steering it but this small a core and center can usually get pulled into deep convection, seen it dozens of times.

You are right. And there have been almost as many leading centers that left behind old convection to dissipate as they stepped WNW. You guys should get some action, probably even TS on Okaloosa Island, but models - outside of the globals that haven’t run yet - are keyed in tightly on Harrison Co. it’s at least even money. I’d agree that any adjustments would be toward the east, but this looks locked in with 24-27 hours to go.

Yea, last few radar frames looks like it is jogging more NW as the convection grew. Might see this back and forth, stair stepping a bit or you could call it a wobble. I agree, it should head for the MS Coast but any long lasting deviation could shift things a bit further east. We'll see.

I actually have family in Mobile so they are asking and I'm telling them to just prepare for Hurricane force gusts and they should be fine.

[Steve]

That line is straight to Biloxi, artist. Casinos will probably close for a while if so. I’m liking the MS Gulf Coast for landfall. Usually I’d like to think I could get an educated guess in way before 24 hours. But there were a few different possibilities. Again looking at WV without the parms, you can see the high in the Atlantic pushing west and WSW. That’s a block against a recurve. And you can see the banana/cigar ridge to the north. The alleyway and even flow in this case still looks like it’s straight to the central MS coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[MississippiWx]

Recon is about to go for another pass.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040332
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 40 20180904
032230 2734N 08513W 8433 01625 0170 +160 +143 081025 026 032 001 00
032300 2733N 08512W 8427 01626 0167 +158 +146 084025 026 031 001 00
032330 2732N 08510W 8426 01626 0167 +156 +147 083024 025 031 002 00
032400 2731N 08509W 8431 01620 0167 +154 +152 084027 027 031 002 01
032430 2730N 08508W 8421 01631 //// +153 //// 081027 028 033 001 01
032500 2729N 08507W 8425 01626 0164 +153 +151 081026 027 033 001 01
032530 2728N 08506W 8429 01621 //// +150 //// 081026 028 032 003 01
032600 2727N 08505W 8424 01627 0163 +155 +151 082027 028 032 001 00
032630 2726N 08503W 8427 01622 0163 +155 +150 082028 028 033 001 01
032700 2725N 08502W 8430 01621 //// +153 //// 077026 028 032 003 01
032730 2724N 08501W 8424 01625 //// +154 //// 074028 029 032 001 01
032800 2723N 08500W 8426 01622 0162 +155 +152 079029 029 031 001 01
032830 2722N 08459W 8424 01623 0160 +157 +138 079027 029 032 001 00
032900 2721N 08458W 8426 01620 0157 +158 +139 074027 029 035 001 00
032930 2720N 08456W 8425 01620 0157 +156 +147 072027 028 033 002 00
033000 2718N 08455W 8425 01621 0159 +155 +150 070028 028 032 001 00
033030 2717N 08454W 8430 01615 0154 +159 +150 069029 029 034 001 00
033100 2716N 08453W 8425 01620 0154 +158 +153 071027 029 035 001 00
033130 2716N 08452W 8426 01617 0153 +160 +150 071029 030 036 001 00
033200 2715N 08450W 8425 01617 0151 +160 +157 074027 028 036 001 00

[MGC]

From the looks of Tampa long range radar, it appears convection is once again building around Gordon's eye. Hope it falls apart again. We shall see what the morning brings.....MGC

[Steve]

Wonder with the convection all to the north and east if we won't see some wobbles by the center more northward overnight toward the convection. I know the deep layered ridge is a steering it but this small a core and center can usually get pulled into deep convection, seen it dozens of times.

You are right. And there have been almost as many leading centers that left behind old convection to dissipate as they stepped WNW. You guys should get some action, probably even TS on Okaloosa Island, but models - outside of the globals that haven’t run yet - are keyed in tightly on Harrison Co. it’s at least even money. I’d agree that any adjustments would be toward the east, but this looks locked in with 24-27 hours to go.

Yea, last few radar frames looks like it is jogging more NW as the convection grew. Might see this back and forth, stair stepping a bit or you could call it a wobble. I agree, it should head for the MS Coast but any long lasting deviation could shift things a bit further east. We'll see.

I actually have family in Mobile so they are asking and I'm telling them to just prepare for Hurricane force gusts and they should be fine.

Yeah. Mobile is weird depending on where someone is. Some of those nice subdivisions in south Mobile County along the rivers flood. And some older parts of town have a lot of trees and the potential for flying debris. Then you have along the bay which can flood in a surge, even parts of downtown. I’m glad for them this won’t be getting super strong.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040342
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 41 20180904
033230 2714N 08449W 8426 01615 0149 +161 +156 076030 031 035 001 00
033300 2713N 08448W 8426 01615 0147 +162 +156 073032 034 035 001 00
033330 2712N 08447W 8429 01610 0145 +165 +156 074032 034 036 001 00
033400 2711N 08445W 8425 01612 0141 +165 +156 078033 034 036 001 00
033430 2710N 08444W 8428 01607 0141 +162 +156 075033 035 035 002 01
033500 2709N 08443W 8426 01607 //// +160 //// 070033 034 036 002 01
033530 2708N 08442W 8425 01606 //// +157 //// 074034 035 037 003 01
033600 2707N 08440W 8425 01604 //// +156 //// 073034 035 038 005 01
033630 2707N 08439W 8430 01598 0142 +159 //// 073034 036 041 005 01
033700 2706N 08438W 8422 01603 //// +166 //// 078032 034 041 005 01
033730 2705N 08437W 8425 01597 0124 +172 //// 077031 034 042 006 01
033800 2704N 08436W 8422 01595 0132 +173 +173 075034 037 042 006 00
033830 2703N 08434W 8429 01584 0127 +174 +174 074032 033 046 008 00
033900 2702N 08433W 8415 01595 0111 +177 +177 069030 032 053 010 03
033930 2701N 08432W 8439 01562 0099 +179 +179 065027 029 053 014 00
034000 2700N 08430W 8430 01565 0098 +177 +177 058022 026 045 009 00
034030 2659N 08429W 8428 01562 0075 +188 +173 045008 018 044 008 03
034100 2658N 08428W 8425 01562 0061 +205 +165 235002 006 041 003 00
034130 2657N 08426W 8426 01564 0062 +206 +165 216012 016 024 001 03
034200 2657N 08425W 8429 01564 0066 +206 +163 208020 020 031 003 00

[HeeBGBz]

I've never been so dead center in such a tiny little cone. I'm as ready as I can be. I have a grand toddler in the hospital set to be discharged tomorrow. I have to go to work in east Biloxi in the morning to finalize preparations. East Biloxi floods in an average rainstorm. I hope it doesn't come in early.

[Highteeld]

Pressure looks to be increasing.

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, it's a mess right now. Unless something changes, I don't see this strengthening much more.

[Highteeld]

Yeah, it's a mess right now. Unless something changes, I don't see this strengthening much more.

Even if it ends up as a dud, at least all we got to see that mini-core develop on radar. That was really something else!

[La Breeze]

The High Pressure to the North moving further South is not likely to happen, correct? This would be the least likely scenario, I would think.