2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[PSUHiker31]

The 12Z GFS in particular loves showing weaker storms or no development

[toad strangler]

Yep,12z GFS completely loses all waves behind Florence.

[gatorcane]

Cape Verde train in full effect on today’s Euro

[toad strangler]

12z Euro continues to shift W and S with Florence. Look out Carolinas this run.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro much stronger with wave #2 behind Florence. For now the Islands are safe but being September we have to watch all the emerges Africa.

[chaser1]

12z Euro continues to shift W and S with Florence. Look out Carolinas this run.

My hedge is Florence..... towards Florence

[chaser1]

Yep,12z GFS completely loses all waves behind Florence.

Maybe, but not so for the FV3-GFS. Tropics are in full-swing!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=270

[CyclonicFury]

Models seem to be hinting at some sort of Central American Gyre like system to form in mid-September. GFS and CMC have been showing it.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS not very bullish post Florence

[Clearcloudz]

Models seem to be hinting at some sort of Central American Gyre like system to form in mid-September. GFS and CMC have been showing it.

Some of the ECMWF ensemble members are also showing it.
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090300-240.html

[gatorcane]

Check out the FV3 06Z GFS. Has a Cape Verde storm that develops way east moves north then turns west and beelines towards Bahamas. thankfully it is long-range with this setup:

[SootyTern]

^ well that's not the setup you want to see if you live in South Florida. One of these guys coming across is bound to make us put up our shutters sooner or later

[otowntiger]

Check out the FV3 06Z GFS. Has a Cape Verde storm that develops way east moves north then turns west and beelines towards Bahamas. thankfully it is long-range with this setup:

In that particular set up, it looks like to me, that it could be pushed southwest toward Cuba, right? And is that storm to its NE representing Florence?

[toad strangler]

Check out the FV3 06Z GFS. Has a Cape Verde storm that develops way east moves north then turns west and beelines towards Bahamas. thankfully it is long-range with this setup:

In that particular set up, it looks like to me, that it could be pushed southwest toward Cuba, right?

You would think so but the GFS likes to put trap doors in stout ridges lately lol

[CourierPR]

^ well that's not the setup you want to see if you live in South Florida. One of these guys coming across is bound to make us put up our shutters sooner or later

Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted a few days ago that there would be a pattern similar to what spawned Andrew in '92.

[Kazmit]

12z Euro has both the wave that just exited Africa and the one behind it developing.

[MetroMike]

12z Euro has both the wave that just exited Africa and the one behind it developing.

The Crazy GFS has basically nothing after a sharp recurve of Florence.
Tale of 2 extreme models this season.

[Cpv17]

[AJC3]

Just a quick reminder...there are model threads for Florence and 92L, so remember to keep extended range graphics and discussions focused on systems other than those two. Thanks.

[SconnieCane]

FWIW (not much), 06Z GFS spins up what looks like a Gulf homebrew around hour 200 and brings it into the TX coast in the 990s MB between hours 252 and 264.