WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

New invest barely on the WPac side of the International Date Line.

99W INVEST 180904 0000 10.0N 179.5E WPAC 15 1010

[1900hurricane]

This appears to be the source invest for a system that guidance is developing several days down the road.

[mrbagyo]

Yeah, it has strong support from guidance

[mrbagyo]

99W INVEST 180905 0000 10.0N 176.2E WPAC 15 1006

99W Floater

[euro6208]

Most models bring this near the Marianas mid to late next week where exactly and how strong is too premature to speculate at this point.

[mrbagyo]

Long range 00z GFS wants a Jebi 2.0.

SSD storm floater is not upadating ATM

[mrbagyo]

Latest EPS is hinting some action in the Philippine Sea (area is still largely untapped)

[1900hurricane]

A marked inverted trough can be seen on the latest ASCAT pass.

[euro6208]

EURO takes this very close to Guam and deepens it in 940's...







GFS north of Saipan.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1036795763614015489

[euro6208]

UKMET takes a rapidly intensifying system across Guam.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.9N 168.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2018 13.2N 166.9E WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 08.09.2018 13.9N 163.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2018 14.2N 159.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2018 14.5N 156.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2018 13.9N 152.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2018 13.3N 148.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2018 13.2N 146.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 11.09.2018 13.7N 143.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[1900hurricane]

Now marked as a surface low on the JMA surface analysis.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 173E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 174E,
APPROXIMATELY 388 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 051824Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
HIGHLIGHTS THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE FORMATIVE BAND FEEDING INTO
THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VWS THAT IS EASILY
OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD
VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28 - 30 C). MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

This is still 10+ days out so caveat emptor, but the guidance envelope appears to have 99W eventually heading somewhere from Luzon to the Ryukyus as a significant system.

[1900hurricane]

Low level vorticity is decently pronounced near 12ishºN, 174ishºE.

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT from earlier.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 174.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 173.5E, APPROXIMATELY
375 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 051824Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
HIGHLIGHTS THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE FORMATIVE BAND FEEDING INTO
THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VWS THAT IS EASILY
OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD
VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28 - 30 C). MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

This system will be traversing over waters literally untouched. I won't be surprised to see a Cat 5 out of this...

[Highteeld]

Gotta love the uncoupled madness that is the GFS.