2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxGuy]

+264

[wxman22]

The GFS,CMC, and some of the Euro Ensembles have been spinning up a tropical storm around the Yucatan/Bay of Capache for the last few days,the only difference now, is the last two runs of the GFS is saying that there could be a weakness in the ridge due to a trough in the west, which allows the system to move to the north towards Texas instead of Mexico, just something to watch for now...

[chaser1]

FWIW (not much), 06Z GFS spins up what looks like a Gulf homebrew around hour 200 and brings it into the TX coast in the 990s MB between hours 252 and 264.

Interesting; I hadn't really taken a look yet but wonder if this was simply a piece of some northern axis "sleeper wave" had largely dragged over Northern South America and into Central America? That, or some spin-off vorticity from a Pacific ITCZ disturbance that somehow was pulled northward?

[toad strangler]

12z GFS has basically killed off the wave behind Florence (92L) BUT has let it slip through this time to the W and into the N Lesser Antilles with minimal vorticity signature.

[SoupBone]

12z GFS has basically killed off the wave behind Florence (92L) BUT has let it slip through this time to the W and into the N Lesser Antilles with minimal vorticity signature.

It also buries that home grown Yucatan system into central Mexico at 264 hours.

[mcheer23]

We need to watch the BOC in about 8 to 10 days.

[HurricaneEric]

12z Euro is getting REAL busy at hour 168




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[otowntiger]

12z Euro is getting REAL busy at hour 168




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That's quite the tropical fish train! An impressive train, but a re-curving one nonetheless, from the looks of that set up. Interesting note by the way and more knowledable folks here please correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like one of the factors 'saving' the CONUS is an extended (from north to south) ridge of high pressure as opposed to the normal trough that sets up to steer everything out to sea.

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro is getting REAL busy at hour 168




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That's quite the tropical fish train! An impressive train, but a re-curving one nonetheless, from the looks of that set up. Interesting note by the way and more knowledable folks here please correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like one of the factors 'saving' the CONUS is an extended (from north to south) ridge of high pressure as opposed to the normal trough that sets up to steer everything out to sea.

Look at 240, I wouldn’t bet on that

[SFLcane]

Thank you Florence

[Hurricaneman]

Thank you Florence

I wouldn’t say that yet, at 192 92L misses the trough and is in a dangerous position approaching The Bahamas and I would at least watch one of the waves behind 92L also

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037056003739738112

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037056003739738112[tweet]

I can see at least one more storm forming and becoming named.

[gatorcane]

If that many storms do happen per the Euro, you got to think one might slip through. The weakness created by Florence won’t be there the entire time. The ridge over the Eastern US looks very dominant. Usually we see troughs swinging through instead.

Euro heights 192 hours:

[blp]

I think the ole crazy uncle CMC is back and has taken over the Euro. I want my old Euro back.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a conga line of re curves

[SoupBone]

Thank you Florence

I wouldn’t say that yet, at 192 92L misses the trough and is in a dangerous position approaching The Bahamas and I would at least watch one of the waves behind 92L also

Yeah I posted it in the other thread, but it appears to be headed awfully close to the U.S. East Coast, not necessarily following Florence. Of course, it's way out there (time wise), so we have damn near two weeks of watching it.

[blp]

If that many storms do happen per the Euro, you got to think one might slip through. The weakness created by Florence won’t be there the entire time. The ridge over the Eastern US looks very dominant. Usually we see troughs swinging through instead.

Euro heights 192 hours:

I agree. I don't remember seeing that strong a ridge so firmly entrenched over the east coast in a long time and every major model is showing this so this is not some Euro fantasy. 60w looks like the point after which anything will get trapped.

[otowntiger]

Looks like a conga line of re curves

Lol, yep- I called it ‘tropical fish train’! Sure as someone said, the high could build back in but with that steady succession of systems rolling in I think each system will be keeping the door open for the next guy to go thru.

[Kazmit]

Looks like a conga line of re curves

Lol, yep- I called it ‘tropical fish train’! Sure as someone said, the high could build back in but with that steady succession of systems rolling in I think each system will be keeping the door open for the next guy to go thru.

That sounds good to me. Plenty of storms to track, good surf, and no threat to land.