ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

I moved the track to the MS/AL border, but it may move inland a lot farther east, maybe even the AL/FL border. Peak winds look to be about 45 kts, but almost nothing for wind west of the center.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

barely looks tropical to me

[PTrackerLA]

Based on current radar it could be onshore near Gulf Shores, AL without the next 6 hours. I guess that's my landfall guess at this point.

[wx98]

wonder what the next NHC advisory is goin to look like

If I was down there I would downgrade to 45 kt, but I’m not in charge and downgrading operationally just for the sake of science may lead to false complacency on the coast if this thing did decide to pull a surprise.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the mid level circ and all the weather will be onshore much sooner before actual landfall.

[SunnyThoughts]

I moved the track to the MS/AL border, but it may move inland a lot farther east, maybe even the AL/FL border. Peak winds look to be about 45 kts, but almost nothing for wind west of the center.

I think the EOC in Escambia county Fla probably agrees with you. Been seeing a crawl at the bottom of tv concerning bridges, that for people to stay off the roads if at all possible this afternoon and evening. Many bridges in our area here and they are saying the threat is increasing of bridge closings, as they close at 39mph sustained winds.

[bella_may]

Here comes the rain

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
As #Gordon approaches the gulf coast, it remains lopsided, with most of the heavy weather on the northeast side. This means that heavy rainfall & strong winds will be concentrated along coastal Alabama & NW Florida this afternoon/evening, and eventually Mississippi later tonight.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037061099718422530

[SunnyThoughts]

Curfew in Biloxi from 7pm tonight until 7am tomorrow. Casinos closing at 5pm.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://mynbc15.com/watch Live local coverage for anyone interested. ( Out of Mobile)

[Jag95]

There are some pretty big isolated storms over around Perry that I'd keep an eye out for. It also seems like it might be moving a little more west again.

[bella_may]

Nice storm coming through right now. Some pretty good gusts with it

[pcolaman]

Gordon is going more nnw now and looks to go in around al/Fl now to me

[pcolaman]

The center looks to have consolidated to more of the convection.

[MGC]

Looks like Gordon is going to hit well east of me. Was down at Gulfport Harbor and got to talk to Paul Goodloe, they were packing up and headed east. He said Cantore left earlier in the day.....MGC

[stormlover2013]

just your eye balls

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...GORDON STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 87.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Mouth
of the Mississippi River, including Lake Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.4 North,
longitude 87.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15
mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until
landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast. A
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
after landfall, with a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and
north forecast to occur on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Gordon will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
within the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight, and then
move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is still possible, and
Gordon could become a hurricane before landfall occurs along the
north-central Gulf Coast this evening. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4
ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding
across portions of these areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread onshore within portions
of the warning area during the next few hours, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning area.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Gordon has been undergoing another convective bursting phase during
the past few hours, with a sharp increase in Doppler velocity
values noted between 9,000-12,000 ft. Some peak velocity values
have been in excess of 80 kt, but average values have been around
65-67 kt, which supports an advisory intensity of 60 kt. Another
reconnaissance mission will be conducted in Gordon in a few hours,
which provide additional intensity and pressure data.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no
significant change to the previous NHC forecast track or reasoning.
The new model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, but not
enough to make any appreciable changes to the previous forecast
track. As a result, Gordon is expected to move northwestward toward
the Mississippi coastline, and the cyclone will make landfall in
that area around 0300 UTC. After landfall, steering currents are
still expected to weaken, causing Gordon to slow down considerably.
The slower forward speed, which will be near 5 kt at times, will act
to enhance the heavy rainfall potential. By Friday, a mid- to
upper-level trough and a cold front are forecast to cause a break
int the subtropical ridge, allowing Gordon to turn northward on
Friday, and move northeastward on Saturday. Gordon's remnant
circulation is expected to merge with a cold front by Sunday. The
new official track forecast is close to a blend of the consensus
models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCA,

Gordon still has another 6 hours or so over warm waters near 30C,
which in combination with an upper-level environment of diffluent
southeasterly upper-level flow and increased surface convergence due
to land interaction will provide a brief window of opportunity for
Gordon to reach hurricane strength before landfall. Once Gordon
moves inland, the small circulation is expected to spin down
quickly, with Gordon becoming a remnant low by 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast, where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. The highest
storm surge is expected along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama
from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island tonight and
early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions and storm surge will also
affect portions of the western Florida Panhandle.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida
Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,
northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could
reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding
in portions of these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 29.4N 87.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 30.7N 89.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 32.2N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 33.2N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1800Z 34.0N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 35.7N 94.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 38.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 41.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[galaxy401]

Interesting, Gordon is almost a hurricane.

[SunnyThoughts]

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.4 North,
longitude 87.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15
mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until
landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast. A
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
after landfall, with a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and
north forecast to occur on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Gordon will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
within the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight, and then
move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is still possible, and
Gordon could become a hurricane before landfall occurs along the
north-central Gulf Coast this evening. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

[Audrey2Katrina]

Almost like "Nate" the sequel. Except we, in my area, got more from Nate than this--not that I'm not grateful. After Katrina--I don't need or want anything remotely like that again. Hope it doesn't catch the good folks in Ala/FLA too much by surprise. Although I heard one model has it cutting sharply west? Frankly I doubt that will happen until it's well inland. And it is acting like it has found its path and making a beeline to it. JMHO.