ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

What is the strength on the 00z UKMET?

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it’s trying to go through the ridge again, we’ll have to see a few more frames before I can say for sure

That ridge is strengthening and yet the GFS still insists on a direct WNW-NW heading.

It just makes the rest of the run after day 6 is trash as it goes against science

Not for nothing you won’t see a Category 5 at that latitude.

[Bocadude85]

The new 0z UKMET doubles down on being southern outlier. Goes almost due west




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0Z UKMET is almost Andrew like, how many runs has the UKMET been showing this? I’ve noticed that the UKMET tends to be a trend setter.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is about as close as it gets until it starts recurving away from the coast.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Okay I might have spoke too soon. It was recurving but now its trying to move south at hour 240 lol

[cjrciadt]

Okay I might have spoke too soon. It was recurving but now its trying to move south at hour 240 lol

Loopy loop

[Aric Dunn]

and there is the loop that should have happened last run lol

[wxmann_91]

0Z GFS executing a clockwise loop at hr 240 as the building ridge over the Great Lakes shifts east. Still lots of uncertainty even if it turns back west under the ridge initially.

[Hurricaneman]

Has a Esther 1961 like track, that would be a forecasting headache

[Bocadude85]

Has a Esther 1961 like track, that would be a forecasting headache

That would certainly be a interesting track to witness, the 0z ensembles will be interesting.

[hurricaneCW]

The critical point will be near 60W, if it's not far enough north to be influenced by the troughing to the north then Florence will impact the US.

The only constant this summer has been stronger than normal eastern ridging and I see no reason why it wouldn't continue.

The waves behind it will also likely be threats.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro farther west this run so far. less of a trough.. looks like it might get caught again... hard to say.

[Hurricaneman]

Euro farther west this run so far. less of a trough.. looks like it might get caught again... hard to say.

The being SW of the previous run is interesting due to it having a higher chance of missing the trough

[TheDreamTraveler]

Am I wrong or does Gordon's low look more pronounced around Missouri? And would that have any impact on Florence?

[Aric Dunn]

Am I wrong or does Gordon's low look more pronounced around Missouri? And would that have any impact on Florence?

yes it will..

[Aric Dunn]

also the other storms behind florence this run are much slower and farther south .

[Aric Dunn]

its farther sw than the 12z yesterday run.. ridging is a little weaker than that though.. lets see what happens

[Hurricaneman]

its farther sw than the 12z yesterday run.. ridging is a little weaker than that though.. lets see what happens

Ridge sends it west at 144

[Aric Dunn]

00z euro florence trapped again ... well now..with more ridging then the 12z from yesterday.. this may go even farther south..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looks like it's trapped but just barely. Ukmet might be onto something yet again.