ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#661 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:23 am

Plowing NW through the ridge....

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#662 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 am

174 hr, NW turn begins offshore Carolinas
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#663 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 am

Brand new 12z UKMET continues to be defiant and sends it very far west...

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#664 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 am

How does this even happen... :roll:

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#665 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:25 am

chris_fit wrote:Plowing NW through the ridge....

Image

I swear the GFS has a physics problem, low pressure can’t plow through a ridge
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#666 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:25 am

New UKMET says Andrew part 2
1 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#667 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:25 am

174 hour got turning north by carolina their could get ts wind
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#668 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:26 am

Betting a loop coming.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#669 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:26 am

SFLcane wrote:New UKMET says Andrew part 2



Even more S and W than the previous run (00Z)
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#670 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:28 am

The continued turn into the ridge on the GFS later hours is puzzling. I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Especially with the UKMet doubling down on it's westward motion. My thoughts at this time are that the Outer Banks and possibly the SC coast are going to have to deal with this one. At this time I'm thinking points further South (FL/GA) will be ok. The Ukie may change my mind on that though if it continues its current trend.

SFT
3 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#671 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:29 am

Blown Away wrote:Betting a loop coming.


*Headdesks.*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#672 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:30 am

Blown Away wrote:Betting a loop coming.


I'd take that to the bank. Either a loop or a flat out stall. Regardless of how this plays out the surf is going to be up and the erosion along the Atlantic coast is going to be substantial.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#673 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:30 am

ECMWF have it going into south carolina
0 likes   
Top
drewschmaltz
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#674 Postby drewschmaltz » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:31 am

SconnieCane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Betting a loop coming.


*Headdesks.*


Nope, just more ridge plowing.
0 likes   
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#675 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:31 am

SFLcane wrote:How does this even happen... :roll:

Image

Alright I’ll bite, any Mets can chime in whether a low pressure system can just go through a high pressure system like butter?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#676 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:32 am

Meanwhile down in the Caribbean...Helene looks to make a very unwelcome visit to the islands.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#677 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:32 am

floridasun78 wrote:ECMWF have it going into south carolina


Yes, the 00Z run. The new 12z run start running in about 75 minutes.
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#678 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:32 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Plowing NW through the ridge....

Image

I swear the GFS has a physics problem, low pressure can’t plow through a ridge


It's not going through the ridge. It's going around the ridge.
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#679 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:32 am

With the way the GFS is acting I think we should go with the Euro since it makes sense unlike the GFS until it can fix its plowing through ridges problem
0 likes   
Top
plasticup

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#680 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:32 am

SconnieCane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Betting a loop coming.


*Headdesks.*

Maybe try smashing your face against a wall, like momma Florence.

Although in her case apparently she'll go right through the wall...
3 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests