ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[ava_ati]

Hot off the press - 12Z GFS Ensembles - Noticeable Shift to OTS/East

I look at that and see "stall, stall, stall, cyclonic loop weak steering everyone is in the bullseye

[chris_fit]

Moving W @ 72 hours

[HurricaneEric]

This set up looks like OTS is about to happen, IMO.




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[chris_fit]

96 hours - Been moving WWNW for 3 days now (Since 48 hours)

[gatorcane]

Euro nearly stalls Florence without gaining as much latitude unlike the 00Z run. May not make connection with trough.

[tolakram]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/GTrWjL1.png[/img]
Source

Top five-day model verifications for mid-level (500-mb) heights over past thirty-one days in Northern Hemisphere: ECMWF (89.9), FV3-GFS (87.5), and UKMET (86.8). The operational GFS only registers at 85.7, with the FV3 performing significantly better, interestingly. The FV3 is essentially a peer competitor against the "top-dog" ECMWF and the trailing UKMET. So these three global models are the ones to watch and compare vs. real-time data and trends in the environment.

Keep in mind those are single model scores and only us amateurs tend to speak in single model. Everything is a blend, never a single model.

[tolakram]

Euro nearly stalls Florence without gaining as much latitude unlike the 00Z run. May not make connection with trough.

Is it really going to get that weak though?

[chris_fit]

Geez and look at Flo's Children - gonna be interesting couple of weeks

[gatorcane]

Euro nearly stalls Florence without gaining as much latitude unlike the 00Z run. May not make connection with trough.

Is it really going to get that weak though?

Seems like the Euro is off on intensity, but the trough it shows at 96 hours is weaker than the GFS.

[AxaltaRacing24]

access denied

[chris_fit]

Day 5

[ava_ati]

Euro nearly stalls Florence without gaining as much latitude unlike the 00Z run. May not make connection with trough.

Is it really going to get that weak though?

I don't want to post the gif here as it is off topic, go look at visible that shear is really starting to eat away at the SW outflow, kind of reminds me of Lane before it started rapidly weakening it is starting to get into some serious shear

[txwatcher91]

Euro will miss the first trough. Now the key is what happens as she heads west or wnw. If the ridging builds in like some Euro model runs have indicated then this could be another East Coast threat.

[chris_fit]

144 hrs

[Kingarabian]

did the ECMWF init at 996? that seems way off has it at a 1005 TS in 24 hours? I am not sure if we can run to the bank on that

It has some track implications. Especially when we're dealing with a complex steering pattern and theres a initial trough lingering that could force a deeper vort a bit more poleward.

[chris_fit]

168 hrs - Def Eastward Shift from last run

[Ken711]

Landfall OB with Euro or escape?

[ava_ati]

Landfall OB with Euro or escape?

I was going to say with that new high north of it probably into NC or Virginia, but then it popped into VA

[LarryWx]

NJ hit coming?

[tolakram]

That should be moving north, I think. Maybe NW. Not pretty, anyway you look at it.