ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#761 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:12 pm

UKMET?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#762 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:15 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:UKMET the only model that is sober at the moment.


The UKMET is so much farther southwest then the rest of the models that one would have to think that it is out to lunch. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t show Florence getting north of 25N, that clearly is going to bust unless Florence stops her current NW movement.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#763 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:15 pm

toad strangler wrote:UKMET?


Actually went slightly further south and west, it's very consistent at least. Blue line on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots -- Click storm 6.

The TVCN which the NHC has used a lot with developed systems has also shifted slightly south and west from earlier.

Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#764 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:17 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:UKMET the only model that is sober at the moment.


The UKMET is so much farther southwest then the rest of the models that one would have to think that it is out to lunch. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t show Florence getting north of 25N, that clearly is going to bust unless Florence stops her current NW movement.


Which is exactly what the ukmet says. The ridge builds in quicker florence is slightly slower and it is stuck under a expansive ridge. Very plausible.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#765 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:17 pm

toad strangler wrote:UKMET?


I posted it in page 36
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#766 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:20 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
toad strangler wrote:UKMET?


Actually went slightly further south and west, it's very consistent at least. Blue line on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots -- Click storm 6.

The TVCN which the NHC has used a lot with developed systems has also shifted slightly south and west from earlier.

Image


Is the TVCN really bending SW?!? :eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#767 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:20 pm

When do the ECMF Ensembles post?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#768 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:UKMET the only model that is sober at the moment.


The UKMET is so much farther southwest then the rest of the models that one would have to think that it is out to lunch. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t show Florence getting north of 25N, that clearly is going to bust unless Florence stops her current NW movement.


Which is exactly what the ukmet says. The ridge builds in quicker florence is slightly slower and it is stuck under a expansive ridge. Very plausible.


Well we will know soon enough if the UKMET is onto something or not, UKMET says Florence passes south of 24N at 50W.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#769 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:23 pm

I missed tracking these things, the journey is always so interesting.

This one does worry me though, not once has eastern ridging verified weaker than forecast in the 5-7+ day this season. In fact the opposite has happened, that's why it's in the 90s right now.

I don't know what to make of the Ukmet right now, GFS/Euro/CMC are surprisingly pretty well aligned for 7+ days out.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#770 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
toad strangler wrote:UKMET?


Actually went slightly further south and west, it's very consistent at least. Blue line on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots -- Click storm 6.

The TVCN which the NHC has used a lot with developed systems has also shifted slightly south and west from earlier.

Image


Is the TVCN really bending SW?!? :eek:


Gator the SW dive shown by the TVCN is certainly interesting.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#771 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:26 pm

chris_fit wrote:When do the ECMF Ensembles post?


Interestingly, average member is a fair bit weaker on the 12Z EPS vs 0Z. Tracks are similar so far. Actually, I think average track is slightly north of the 0Z.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#772 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:27 pm

Image

Too close for comfort. Half the models skirt north of Bermuda and half of them skirt south. Not nice to be in the middle of that spread when some of the intensity guidance looks like this.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#773 Postby JPmia » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:35 pm

UKMET:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

The SFWMD map does not appear to be the latest because this is heading for Florida/SE coast per UKMET.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#774 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:35 pm

Good news fwiw. The 12Z EPS has fewer members than the 0Z EPS hitting the SE US with Hs along with weaker average members. So, good vs the very bad 0Z EPS. But still quite threatening.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#775 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:37 pm

Where's the brotherly love?

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#776 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:45 pm

Out of 51 members, the 12Z EPS has only ~6 TS+ hits on the SE US vs the insane ~23 hits on the 0Z EPS, all 9/13-4:

- 2 on NC, 1 far S GA, 3 N 1/2 of FL
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#777 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:46 pm

Hot off the press - I present the 12Z EURO Ensembles

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#778 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:47 pm

So many members do a loop
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#779 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:47 pm

12z UK-ENS:
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#780 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:49 pm

Esther 1961 rings a bell in terms of a storm that did a similar track. It's not impossible.
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