ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[LarryWx]

Hot off the press - I present the 12Z EURO Ensembles

Way less threatening than the 0Z, which had 23 TS+ SE US hits, but still threatening. Note that some of these hits on your map are only TDs.

[LarryWx]

This run look like the EPS from 2 runs ago (bigger spread and many fewer SE US hits). If there had not been that very threatening 0Z EPS, this run would have been thought of as equally threatening. But compared to the 0Z, it is way less threatening.

[MGC]

This could be a close call to Chesapeake Bay area. Been a while since a big hurricane hit up that way....MGC

[AutoPenalti]

12z UK-ENS:

That is Andrew-esque.

[Aric Dunn]

12z UK-ENS:

That is Andrew-esque.

the setup is very similar..

[RL3AO]

Checking a model thread four times a day (or forty...) does seem to be a part of life in September. A CONUS landfall from the current position would be remarkable. But in meteorology, things happen that have never been recorded all the time. About a year ago, way too many on here were saying Irma would never hit the US because no storm on record from it's northern position had. But the pattern supported Irma getting really far west. The set up for Florence isn't as clear cut, but the potential is there for some sort of surprise. Or it could go 500 miles east of Bermuda.

[Cyclenall]

12z UK-ENS:
*image*

That ens mem that hits the eastern tip of Cuba is amusing. What on earth . Imagine if that was the outcome.

[Syx6sic]

This could be a close call to Chesapeake Bay area. Been a while since a big hurricane hit up that way....MGC

Yea trust me I know I live in Norfolk we have been lucky here so far and we are over due for a hit

[Blown Away]

12z UK-ENS:

That is Andrew-esque.

the setup is very similar..

On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.

[toad strangler]

Checking a model thread four times a day (or forty...) does seem to be a part of life in September. A CONUS landfall from the current position would be remarkable. But in meteorology, things happen that have never been recorded all the time. About a year ago, way too many on here were saying Irma would never hit the US because no storm on record from it's northern position had. But the pattern supported Irma getting really far west. The set up for Florence isn't as clear cut, but the potential is there for some sort of surprise. Or it could go 500 miles east of Bermuda.

I'm so happy our science isn't good enough to take out the wonder. Truly knowing 5 or even 7 to 10 days out would be a yuge bummer. Except for those at landfall of course who would have a ton of time to prepare.

[edu2703]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203346_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Aric Dunn]

That is Andrew-esque.

the setup is very similar..

On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.

except for the UKMET and many ensembles from other models. barely make it 25 north.

[tgenius]

I am hoping this storm re-curves before it reaches any land mass, but the ridge forcing her west does have the Andrew vibe to it. :/

[HurricaneIrma]

the setup is very similar..

On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.

except for the UKMET and many ensembles from other models. barely make it 25 north.

So what dose that mean aric

[txwatcher91]

the setup is very similar..

On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.

except for the UKMET and many ensembles from other models. barely make it 25 north.

The key to watch is where this crosses both 50W and 55W. The northern camp is around 26-27N north by 55W and the UK never makes it above 25N. We will know in the next 48 hours which camp has the right idea.

[ava_ati]

[im g]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203346_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png[/img]

I see the NHC isn't buying what the Euro is selling as far as weakening goes

[Aric Dunn]

On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.

except for the UKMET and many ensembles from other models. barely make it 25 north.

The key to watch is where this crosses both 50W and 55W. The northern camp is around 26-27N north by 55W and the UK never makes it above 25N. We will know in the next 48 hours which camp has the right idea.

yep, and looking at how quickly the ridging off the east coast is shifting east. we could see a UKMET track shortly. very small weakness left in the ridge currently.

[txwatcher91]

except for the UKMET and many ensembles from other models. barely make it 25 north.

The key to watch is where this crosses both 50W and 55W. The northern camp is around 26-27N north by 55W and the UK never makes it above 25N. We will know in the next 48 hours which camp has the right idea.

yep, and looking at how quickly the ridging off the east coast is shifting east. we could see a UKMET track shortly. very small weakness left in the ridge currently.

Agreed if the UK idea is to verify this will need to take a hard turn to the WNW or due W tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

The key to watch is where this crosses both 50W and 55W. The northern camp is around 26-27N north by 55W and the UK never makes it above 25N. We will know in the next 48 hours which camp has the right idea.

yep, and looking at how quickly the ridging off the east coast is shifting east. we could see a UKMET track shortly. very small weakness left in the ridge currently.

Agreed if the UK idea is to verify this will need to take a hard turn to the WNW or due W tonight or tomorrow morning.

you can see the ridge shifting.. it will depend on how fast that gap/weakness between the ridge to the NE of Florence and the massive ridge coming off US fills in. according to the UKMET we should see a gradual turn more wnw then slightly just north of west in the next 48 hours or less. the other models keep the gap open a little longer..

Also notice there are no trough in play at all. nothing but one ridge being strong than the other..

[AutoPenalti]

That is Andrew-esque.

the setup is very similar..

On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.

Huh? The current UKMET track has it barely making it to 26N before turning to the W...