ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[toad strangler]

The SW shift is negligible over 12z this far out at 156

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 144-168:

[toad strangler]

Ridge is stronger this run. Is this the beginning of west shifts toward the UKMET?

Ridge is slipping off to the NE of Flo, I would expect a turn soon to the NW and NNW

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 180:

[Duddy]

This modeling is starting to worry me a little here in Wilmington, NC. It is not a good look for us. Ridge sliding off NE coast at hour 108 it appears. SMH.

Yes, all eyes focused on 500mb contour lines. Lots of time to go though, but the synoptic setup has my attention.

Same here.

[Ken711]

Ridge is stronger this run. Is this the beginning of west shifts toward the UKMET?

Ridge is slipping off to the NE of Flo, I would expect a turn soon to the NW and NNW

Aiming for VA Beach like the Euro.

[ava_ati]

amazing consensus between the EURO and GFS

[supercane4867]

18z GFS looks like an Isabel hit but slightly north

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 186:

[toad strangler]

amazing consensus between the EURO and GFS

Fools gold. One run Euro and two GFS. Too far out.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yeah the euro and gfs runs for today are actually pretty similar. The fact they're agreeing is actually worrying but we still have a few more days to know where it might possibly end up.

[1900hurricane]

more stronger it get and nw will good for us will go out to see

I've often heard this repeated, so I'll ask any of the mets here, is this actually true?

It depends on steering currents, but this is usually the case since beta drift begins to come into play more and a vertically deeper system will more likely to catch mid and even upper level troughs. However, when beneath anomalously strong deep layer ridging, the opposite sometimes occurs where a stronger/deeper system becomes more resistant to poleward movement. The latter case actually just happened with Tropical Storm Gordon. Gordon was beneath very strong ridging over the eastern CONUS, and that was its primary steering mechanism. A deeper system likely would have made landfall a little further west along the northern Gulf Coast.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 168-192:

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z GFS hours 168-192:

"Hey, Hurricane Andrew, not coming south for SAR this year? Don't worry, I'll bring the SAR to you!" -Florence, probably

[ava_ati]

amazing consensus between the EURO and GFS

Fools gold. One run Euro and two GFS. Too far out.

I am talking about ridging, if those ridges verify, there is nowhere for it to go and both the EURO and GFS have 0 escape. I think the question now becomes are the ridges stronger and further south to push it into FL, GA or SC or do they verify and hit NC or further north. I think OTS is very unlikely at this point looking at both the models. But that is an uneducated opinion.

[supercane4867]

One thing for sure: there is absolutly no trough to speak of once it misses the first one.

[xironman]

The trough going across the gulf states late in the period dug quite a bit more this time, almost cuts off over Mississippi. Something to keep an eye on.

[tolakram]

Pretty remarkable agreement for being so far out.

[AutoPenalti]

The trough going across the gulf states late in the period dug quite a bit more this time, almost cuts off over Mississippi. Something to keep an eye on.

https://i.imgur.com/5v2y66A.png

I haven't noticed that before, why is that?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 192-222: