ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

Can't deny that most of the GFS & EPS/Euro ensembles keep Flo away from CONUS, Bermuda still a close call no matter what.

and then they will switch back . then back again.. blah blah..

Unfortunately I have to agree.

[Aric Dunn]

the door has closed... lets see how long it takes to turn.. should turn west in the next 6 to 10 hours. once that happens the models will hone in a little more.

[AutoPenalti]

the door has closed... lets see how long it takes to turn.. should turn west in the next 6 to 10 hours. once that happens the models will hone in a little more.

Isn't this at the 400-850mb level though? Florence is at 953mb at minimum.

[Aric Dunn]

the door has closed... lets see how long it takes to turn.. should turn west in the next 6 to 10 hours. once that happens the models will hone in a little more.

[img]https://image.ibb.co/fK4ZfK/77777777.gif[/ig]

Isn't this at the 400-850mb level though? Florence is at 953mb at minimum.

this is the steering currents at 400. steering at 500mb and 300mb 200 all show the ridging filled it. I just picked in between given it is a cat four and steering can come from multiple levels.

[AutoPenalti]

the door has closed... lets see how long it takes to turn.. should turn west in the next 6 to 10 hours. once that happens the models will hone in a little more.

[img]https://image.ibb.co/fK4ZfK/77777777.gif[/ig]

Isn't this at the 400-850mb level though? Florence is at 953mb at minimum.

this is the steering currents at 400. steering at 500mb and 300mb 200 all show the ridging filled it. I just picked in between given it is a cat four and steering can come from multiple levels.

Ah, okay that makes sense.

[Ken711]

the door has closed... lets see how long it takes to turn.. should turn west in the next 6 to 10 hours. once that happens the models will hone in a little more.

From the 5PM NHC discussion they are saying it should track WSW once it encounters the ridging through 48 hours. Do you think it will be more due west?

[MacTavish]

Isn't this at the 400-850mb level though? Florence is at 953mb at minimum.

this is the steering currents at 400. steering at 500mb and 300mb 200 all show the ridging filled it. I just picked in between given it is a cat four and steering can come from multiple levels.

Ah, okay that makes sense.

A "level" described in millibars is referring to an altitude at which the air pressure is that certain measurement. Storms are steered by all levels of the atmosphere regardless of their minimum surface air pressure.

[Hurricane Andrew]

this is the steering currents at 400. steering at 500mb and 300mb 200 all show the ridging filled it. I just picked in between given it is a cat four and steering can come from multiple levels.

Ah, okay that makes sense.

A "level" described in millibars is referring to an altitude at which the air pressure is that certain measurement. Storms are steered by all levels of the atmosphere regardless of their minimum surface air pressure.

Indeed...

To expand a little; as MacT said, various altitudes can be described by an average millibar height, for example, the often-used 850mb height (for winter forecasting especially) is roughly equivalent to five thousand feet.

The pressure of the storm is at sea level, where you can think of it as the low pressure center bringing down lower pressures from higher altitudes, if that makes sense. That is to say, if a hurricane's pressure were to be 850mb (oh boy), the pressure found at sea level in the eye would be generally found at 5,000 feet in elevation.

[drewschmaltz]

From the 5PM NHC discussion they are saying it should track WSW once it encounters the ridging through 48 hours. Do you think it will be more due west?

WNW

[ava_ati]

Euro members having quite a bit of trouble with this even in the short term, Florence outside of all of the 12z members, denoted by the red dot
I have it at 23.25N 46.91W

[AutoPenalti]

Ah, okay that makes sense.

A "level" described in millibars is referring to an altitude at which the air pressure is that certain measurement. Storms are steered by all levels of the atmosphere regardless of their minimum surface air pressure.

Indeed...

To expand a little; as MacT said, various altitudes can be described by an average millibar height, for example, the often-used 850mb height (for winter forecasting especially) is roughly equivalent to five thousand feet.

The pressure of the storm is at sea level, where you can think of it as the low pressure center bringing down lower pressures from higher altitudes, if that makes sense. That is to say, if a hurricane's pressure were to be 850mb (oh boy), the pressure found at sea level in the eye would be generally found at 5,000 feet in elevation.

Appreciate the explanation guys, but I have a quick question... let's take the 400 level as an example since, according to you guys, the steering is a mix between the 2 altitudes of pressure.



If the gap is closed, and if it's following the steering flow that would mean that Florence would have to start dipping WSW in about a couple of hours no?

[Ken711]

From the 5PM NHC discussion they are saying it should track WSW once it encounters the ridging through 48 hours. Do you think it will be more due west?

WNW

Oops...yes WNW.

[floridasun78]

i was told once more strong it get will feel weakness FLORENCE is strong so maybe why moving more too nw because feel weakness question we all have when will higth build more east cover weakness

[edu2703]

[lando]

They seem to be giving credence to the possibility of the UK with that cone

[GeneratorPower]

This seems like a complicated setup that’s not easily predictable.

Would be rather historical for such a northerly system to impact east coast USA. However we must remember that we only have about 100 years of history to go by.

[GeneratorPower]

Notice this storm is a relatively slow mover. Not uncommon to see 15-18mph movement. This one is now at 10 mph. As a result it barely makes it past Bermuda by day 5. Quite amazing.

[toad strangler]

This seems like a complicated setup that’s not easily predictable.

Would be rather historical for such a northerly system to impact east coast USA. However we must remember that we only have about 100 years of history to go by.

We have a pretty good Idea of where strikes happened and realative strength from well before 1918. I’m sometimes amazed at the record keeping of pre tech Earth.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

One year later, and my brain has totally gone to mush. Please remind me what time the 0z models will start rolling.

[toad strangler]

This seems like a complicated setup that’s not easily predictable.

Would be rather historical for such a northerly system to impact east coast USA. However we must remember that we only have about 100 years of history to go by.

We have a pretty good Idea of where strikes happened and overall strength from well before 1918. I’m sometimes amazed at the record keeping of pre tech Earth.