WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:42 am

GFS caves in to EURO. Now has it passing very close south of Guam. Still too far out.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:05 am

Latest EURO coming in stronger. 983 mb passing south of Guam.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:06 am

Image

Peak of 943 mb...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:16 am

WOW. This will be something if it materializes.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:21 am

Equally as impressive is that the HWRF doesn't even develop the system until about three days after initialization. Once it has a developed system it bombs it out.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:27 am

An impressive number of strong ensemble members too.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:03 am

Image

Convection increasing around the estimated center.

99W INVEST 180906 0600 12.0N 172.0E WPAC 20 1006
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:20 am

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1037634480780070912


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#29 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:27 am

This could be our next >30 ACE typhoon. Quality storms are back!

I'm getting a little bit concerned about the south/west shifts in track and movement. If this won't strike Taiwan, then the Philippines could be its target. Future Mangkhut/Barijat appears to be a low-tracker, unlike previous storms.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:43 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:This could be our next >30 ACE typhoon. Quality storms are back!

I'm getting a little bit concerned about the south/west shifts in track and movement. If this won't strike Taiwan, then the Philippines could be its target. Future Mangkhut/Barijat appears to be a low-tracker, unlike previous storms.


I'd be honest. I think if this passes close to Guam or the NMI, both names will be the most foreign to us ever since the naming list began in 2000..............Mangkhut or Barijat increasingly better organize and closing in on the Marianas? :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:14 am

ICON direct hit.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#32 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:21 am

Still early but this system has a very high ceiling

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:34 am

ASCAT got another good look at the disturbance.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:42 am

1900hurricane wrote:An impressive number of strong ensemble members too.

[image removed]

It remains that way with the 00Z EPS, gaining even more intense members.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#35 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:44 am

99W INVEST 180906 1200 12.1N 170.8E WPAC 20 1007

Currently following what the models are showing - straight west
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#36 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:03 am

Image

99W looks ominous on this West Pacific wide sat image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#37 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 am

The GFS is back to pulling out the sub Tip runs.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#38 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:48 pm

LOL

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:51 pm

99W is already at work establishing an upper tropospheric high, which can be seen clearly on water vapor imagery. This could really help the system intensify down the road once it establishes itself in the lower levels.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#40 Postby Cunxi Huang » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:10 pm

Image
Image

Alright...This isn't going to happen right? :eek: :eek: :eek:
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