ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

I will just point out that last year the GFS showed a NY landfall for Irma at a similar lead time.

Yep. The Carolinas are not out of the woods on this one.

I think Virginia Beach - OBX area is going to be the consensus landfall point.

[hurricaneCW]

Carolinas up to the Delmarva are most at risk for a landfall. Personally I think it'll be a further north version of Isabel.

I don't think the Irma comparisons are warranted, Florence is almost 5 degrees further north than she was.

[plasticup]

Epic run so far.....

Hits BDA twice rofl
And probably two US east coast landfalls.

Although it's super long-range towards the end of that run.

[Aric Dunn]

I see the UKMET finally gave in a little. still to early to say. Florence looks like she is about to have a exposed llc.. still anywhere from southern florida to mid atlantic needs to watch .

[Bocadude85]

Carolinas up to the Delmarva are most at risk for a landfall. Personally I think it'll be a further north version of Isabel.

I don't think the Irma comparisons are warranted, Florence is almost 5 degrees further north than she was.

I don’t think anyone is saying Florence is going to hit Cuba, the point was to show that the GFS can have a hard time handling ridge strength and position.

[dspguy]

I will just point out that last year the GFS showed a NY landfall for Irma at a similar lead time.

I wouldn't put that much stock in where landfall will be when we are so far out. Just like Irma last year, it showed landfall from NY to FL this far out. Even 3 days out, the Gulf Coast of Florida was only on the absolute extremity of the 3 day cone, and that's exactly where it went in the end. And about 4 days out, the center line of the NHC forecast was showing a direct hit in GA/SC.

I don't take any stock on where landfall is on a particular run, not this far out. The fact that these models are converging around SC/NC/DelMarVA might be very telling. But a few nudges one way or the other this far out can change it to GA/SC or NYC.

[Ken711]

Isabel was a category 2 at landfall. Is Florence more likely to be stronger 3-4 if it made landfall?

[p1nheadlarry]

Isabel was a category 2 at landfall. Is Florence more likely to be stronger 3-4 if it made landfall?

Far too early to know.

[ava_ati]

I will just point out that last year the GFS showed a NY landfall for Irma at a similar lead time.

I wouldn't put that much stock in where landfall will be when we are so far out. Just like Irma last year, it showed landfall from NY to FL this far out. Even 3 days out, the Gulf Coast of Florida was only on the absolute extremity of the 3 day cone, and that's exactly where it went in the end. And about 4 days out, the center line of the NHC forecast was showing a direct hit in GA/SC.

I don't take any stock on where landfall is on a particular run, not this far out. The fact that these models are converging around SC/NC/DelMarVA might be very telling. But a few nudges one way or the other this far out can change it to GA/SC or NYC.

I wouldn't count out central or NE FL out of that equation either. All it takes is a couple "ridge coming in stronger and further south" runs and Lord knows we'll have a few of those.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS ensemble mean is somewhat south of New England unlike the Operational

[wxmann_91]

Can we stop comparing this to Irma? Irma was in the deep tropics with existing strong ridging to the north of the system, and the GFS was breaking down the ridging too fast. Whereas here we have a complex midlatitude evolution and a forming ridge that is supposed to drive Flo west.

[northjaxpro]

Well said ava_atl. There are too many variables and unknowns this far out to speculate about where Florence is going.

We hopefully will have a better idea as early as Saturday. May not even know by that time.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[tolakram]

SE of the previous 12Z run

[BobHarlem]

Here's a history of Irma's SWMFD plot's from last year https://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.p ... &year=2017

(Note just because it happened last year does not mean it will with Florence, and Irma was further south) I started looking when Irma was at 48W.

Models initially wanted to turn it north toward the Carolina, even the UK (After originally moving it west). then the UK went back west, other models still wanted to turn it north (but shifted westward) but UK eventually led the pack as early as sept 7th. Other models didn't catch up until the 9th. Matthew had about a 2 day lead time on the UK vs other models also.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro @50 miles N of 00z at 24 hrs...

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro @50 miles N of 00z at 24 hrs...

Looks close to the GFS at 24hrs

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a history of Irma's SWMFD plot's from last year https://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.p ... &year=2017

(Note just because it happened last year does not mean it will with Florence, and Irma was further south) I started looking when Irma was at 48W.

Models initially wanted to turn it north toward the Carolina, even the UK (After originally moving it west). then the UK went back west, other models still wanted to turn it north (but shifted westward) but UK eventually led the pack as early as sept 7th. Other models didn't catch up until the 9th. Matthew had about a 2 day lead time on the UK vs other models also.

Lol yeah the UKmet was on top of it .. I mean geez. watching that it was like the other models were " ohh yucky the UKMET smells bad"

[Steve]

Not entirely. Intensity? Maybe. But the angle of the ridge axis would allow an opening up the east coast like that.

I gotta disagree 100% FLpanhandle91. If anything, it may have the intensity close to being right. The angle it depicts on the ridge won't be right anyway. But there's no way it barrels into it like that. The height lines are too tall, and it would have to retreat even though GFS shows it building in as the storm arrives. It would never make it north of the VA Capes to begin with the scenario it depicts. I'm not usually a big GFS basher, but when it's bad, it's bad.

I understand your point. It just seems to me as though the ridge positioning for this GFS run begins change head of the storm rather than Florence plowing through it. CMC ridge axis remains a bit more steady east west and prevents an escape.

Yeah. I got what you were saying too. It angles the southern periphery sort of toward the NW. But if you look at the anomalies at 500 and the heights, it basically just buckles right there. If you could imagine putting a finger into a balloon and pushing it inwards, that's what those are kind of showing.

[tolakram]

Moving a bit south of west.