Aric Dunn wrote: still anywhere from southern florida to mid atlantic needs to watch .
Can you elaborate? I haven't seen anything more than a stray ECWMF ensemble or two bring it that far south...
ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Can you elaborate? I haven't seen anything more than a stray ECWMF ensemble or two bring it that far south...
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:Blown Away wrote:12z Euro @50 miles N of 00z at 24 hrs...
Looks close to the GFS at 24hrs
I'm predicting a radical run either OTS or into N Florida to SC... Seems when GFS produces a wild run the Euro follows suit...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
not much difference.. still only makes it 25.2 n before heading due west or slighlty south of west.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Please don't read too much into these historical plots, just doing it as a curiosity. Estimated Euro positions.
48 hours, 25.6, -54.0
48 hours, 25.6, -54.0
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
euro here just refresh this page ryan maue put together.. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png
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plasticup
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Blown Away wrote:Seems when GFS produces a wild run the Euro follows suit...
They all start with the same data. And if it's garbage in, you'll get garbage out. I think the last two days of completely unexpected rapid intensification when the models and the NHC expected weakening emphasize this well.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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HurricaneEric
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
It seems for now that the issue is the angle or set up of the ridge that ends up forming over Florence. If the setup is East to West, then that should favor a track into the mid Atlantic states imo. GFS seems to think the ridge will push it more NW towards the NE states with a NW-to-SE angle. For now I think the realm of possibilities are within that range (from mid-Atlantic states to NE states/POSSIBLE OTS scenario).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:not much difference.. still only makes it 25.2 n before heading due west or slighlty south of west.
Looks just S of W from 24 - 72 hrs...
12z looks slower than previous runs, let's see how that impacts longterm track?
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Should see the west to wsw turn in the next 6 to 10 hours with florence if it happens before 25N could see a subtle shift in the models next run.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
25.8, -56.45
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Blown Away wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:not much difference.. still only makes it 25.2 n before heading due west or slighlty south of west.
Looks just S of W from 24 - 72 hrs...
12z looks slower than previous runs, let's see how that impacts longterm track?
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The other big thing is models have for some reason a seriously hard time too quickly turning back wnw or nw after a SW dip. multiple examples. Almost every time this happens.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Trend GIF. So far @96hrs. on todays 12z Euro Florence is stronger and further south with stronger ridging to its north when compared to yesterdays 12z run.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
26.8, -60.3
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Euro Trend @96 hours... Shifting S again...
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
While we bicker on where Flo will go, I just want to give a shout out to NHC - that's who we REALLY need to be paying attention..
From their Discussion on Sep 1st 5am their 120 hour (5 day) forecast point was 23.5N 48.5W @ 65 MPH
Actual 5AM position this mornig: 24.1N 47.9W @ 115 MPH
While off on intensity (and I believe there is no way Flo was @ 115mph this morning- probably a cat 1) their position is rather good - actually remarkable at under 60 mile error @ 5 days - Wow!
Go NHC!
From their Discussion on Sep 1st 5am their 120 hour (5 day) forecast point was 23.5N 48.5W @ 65 MPH
Actual 5AM position this mornig: 24.1N 47.9W @ 115 MPH
While off on intensity (and I believe there is no way Flo was @ 115mph this morning- probably a cat 1) their position is rather good - actually remarkable at under 60 mile error @ 5 days - Wow!
Go NHC!
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Trend GIF. At 120hrs. Florence is still stronger and further south with much stronger ridging to its northeast.
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