ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tolakram]

29.0, -67.0

[Aric Dunn]

Trend GIF. At 120hrs. Florence is still stronger and further south with much stronger ridging to its northeast.

Stronger but also the axis is more to the NE of florence will lead to a wnw to nw track unless it builds west with it.

[supercane4867]

I'm more impressed with the fact that 12z EC has 4 named storms spinning simultaneously.

[TheStormExpert]

At 144hrs. Florence is just off the NC coast heading WNW.

[tolakram]

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to be turning NW a little further east than the 00z run at 144hrs, will have to see next frame first

[TheStormExpert]

I'm more impressed with the fact that 12z EC has 4 named stormS spinning simultaneously.

https://i.imgur.com/6QQXwLb.png

GFS has been hinting at this too, except it has Joyce as a Subtropical Storm in the North Atlantic where the 12z Euro has yet another storm moving off Africa behind Helene and Isaac.

[hurricaneCW]

Trend GIF. At 120hrs. Florence is still stronger and further south with much stronger ridging to its northeast.

Stronger but also the axis is more to the NE of florence will lead to a wnw to nw track unless it builds west with it.

Models show the ridge building west, which is why I'm confident this can make it to the US.

[Blown Away]

Euro 00z landfall point... 12z looks to heading to close to that point again.

[tolakram]

Last one.

32.5, -73.1

[Steve]

Looks like 12z EC will hit between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras unless it turns more NWward just prior to landfall

168 OBX

[lando]

Last one.

32.5, -73.1

Mark look how many go south west. How interesting

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

Landfall along the NC Outer Banks @168hrs. as Category 4 hurricane.

[tolakram]

Last one.

32.5, -73.1
[im g]https://i.imgur.com/W6gHMDM.png[/img]

Mark look how many go south west. How interesting

Most of those moving NE after a Florida landfall. A little useless this close up, but I thought it was interesting to show how few east coast landfalls there are even in this close. It's a rare rare thing, so other than saying it's rare the actual track does not seem to come into play very much.

[tpinnola]

Alright, given the highly inconsistent nature of the model runs so far, take a look at the below. Shockingly similar through 6 days...

[Hurricaneman]

Landfall along the NC Outer Banks @168hrs. as Category 4 hurricane.

A bit north of the 0zEuro

[Aric Dunn]

by the way.. last hour or so florence looks to be just about heading do west. you hvae to cover up all the hight level clouds and draw a line across the screen and measure.

but looks like it has begun to turn. if it truly has 12 hours before this current Euro run say it will.. that will change things..

[Steve]

Landfall along the NC Outer Banks @168hrs. as Category 4 hurricane.

The way it's got that notch in the ridge, I don't expect it to curve out for the 192 plot (8 days). Looks like it should head in WNW-NW and maybe anywhere from Raleigh to Richmond might have to deal with this

[pgoss11]

Landfall on the Outer Banks on the 12Z Euro. Things might change in a week. They always seems to.