ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Euro 168-192... NE Hook Shot...

[Aric Dunn]

and here comes the loop

[Steve]

Euro 168-192... NE Hook Shot...

Yeah, that's a brush by for the Tidewater. Here's the setup at 500mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=192 . Can't believe it wouldn't go inland a bit farther based on the setup, but...

[chris_fit]

Looks like only ONE GFS Ensemble makes landfall (USA) on the 12z Suite

Edit - sorry - forgot Bermuda as it is covered by guidance models

[hohnywx]

Landfall on the Outer Banks on the 12Z Euro. Things might change in a week. They always seems to.

Landfall location, if any, will likely change. However, in the 4-5 day range, it appears increasingly likely that there will be a hurricane threatening the East Coast.

[Blown Away]

and here comes the loop

In past these loops, especially at high latitudes in September are possible, but many times been the models underestimating the ridge strength all along. Correct?

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

and here comes the loop

In past these loops, especially at high latitudes in September are possible, but many times been the models underestimating the ridge strength all along. Correct?

yeah.. once it begins a west to SW motion in the next day or so. I would wager money it stays on a wsw to w motion a lot longer than the models say. they always under do this type of motion and the ridge strength..

[tolakram]

[boulderrr]

The remnants of Gordon in the North Atlantic look completely different on today's 12Z vs. yesterday's 12Z.

[tolakram]

Sit and spin

[Blown Away]

and here comes the loop

In past these loops, especially at high latitudes in September are possible, but many times been the models underestimating the ridge strength all along. Correct?

yeah.. once it begins a west to SW motion in the next day or so. I would wager money it stays on a wsw to w motion a lot longer than the models say. they always under do this type of motion and the ridge strength..

Also, seems these loop model runs can be a result of the models moving the system to fast, the 12z is a bit slower than 00z. Something to watch. I still think OTS will be highest odds, then Carolinas, followed by SFL. Landfall points N of Carolinas and from Central Fl to GA/SC border are so rare I'll always bet Climatology against landfalls in those areas.

[GCANE]

Pretty remarkable consistency for Euro.

[GCANE]

GFS has now picked up the huge ULL at about 30N 50W that Euro has been forecasting.
Basically top of the water to top of the troposphere.
That is going to be one helluva outflow channel if it really pans out.

[GCANE]

This run of GFS is also showing more conducive conditions in terms of TPW and moisture column feeds.
Entrainement pretty much coming all the way from the GOM.
Enhanced from a Mid/Upper Level Low over the Miss, Delta

[Hammy]

Euro's flip-flopping is getting smaller each run if you actually plot out the tracks (red=5/00z, green=5/12z, blue=6/00z; pink=6/12z)

[GCANE]

Looking like a stall.
Looking worse each run.

[plasticup]

Looking like a stall.
Looking worse on each run.

[ img]http://i64.tinypic.com/335d309.png[/img]

A stall is almost worst-case scenario for that region. They are (somewhat) used to TS/Cat 1 storms blowing quickly through by the amount of rain you get with a stalled hurricane is nearly unheard of there.

[Bocadude85]

Euro's flip-flopping is getting smaller each run if you actually plot out the tracks (red=5/00z, green=5/12z, blue=6/00z; pink=6/12z)

If I was in the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic States I would certainly be nervous with the current model trends. Hopefully they swing east and stay offshore and away from Bermuda.