ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[LarryWx]

Is the 'UK' model the same thing as he UKMet model?

Yes.

Thanks. Then it has shifted north by a good bit!

Indeed, the UKMET has shifted N quite a bit.

The latest (12Z) UKMET has continued the N adjustments to reflect on initializations being too far SW and I don't think these adjustments are quite done yet. Here's why (all times EDT)

- 12Z 9/5 run: had Flo at 24.1N, 51.5W for its 36 hour forecast
- 12Z 9/6 run: initialized Flo at 24.1N, 48.6W or a whopping 3 degrees east adjustment!
- Flo was actually at 24.1N, 47.9W as of 5 AM today, which is a whopping 3.6 degrees or ~225 miles east of where the 12Z 9/5 run had her at 24.1 N!
- So the latest UKMET had Flo initialized at 24.1N, 48.6W as of 8 AM vs the actual of 24.1N, 47.9W at 5 AM and actual of 24.6N, 48.6W at 11 AM with Flo still moving ~WNW/still gaining a little latitude. So, the latest UKMET initialization was still SW of reality. Therefore, I expect at least one more decent NE adjustment for the 0Z run tonight.

In reaction to this (domino effect), note how much further north is the latest UKMET when it crosses 60W:
- 12Z 9/5 run: 23.4 N
- 0Z 9/6 run: 24.5 N
- 12Z 9/6 run: 25.9 N
- I expect the 0Z 9/7 run to be even further north when it crosses 60W and the latter part of that track to be even further north than the current run as it gets closer to the CONUS. We'll see tonight if that's right.
- Based on the trend of model consensus, especially the UKMET, I feel the chances of a hit in FL, GA, and lower SC have decreased as of the moment though there obviously still is a chance of a hit there and trends could still change back later.

[jdjaguar]

12z UKMET ensembles...

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/20 ... 090612.gif

Not particularly liking this latest U.K. Model run.
JAX is dead center.
After Matthew and Irma the past 2 years, was hoping for a year off from the stress.

Here is to recurve OTS

[chaser1]

I'll say this much if I were to blindly bet $100.00 on recurvature for any westward moving storm around 25N that was as far east as Florence presently is, i'd be winning $100.00. I'd take that same bet 100 times too. Chances are i'd rarely ever lose. Those rare times sure do suck though.

[otowntiger]

when it comes to the UKMET, which one has the models been doing the UKMET coming to the ECMWF and GFS or have the ECMWF and GFS been trending toward the UKMET? Ukmet has stayed pretty solid on its southern solution while the others were OTS... Here we are and the members of the ECMWF are starting to come more inline with what the UKMET has been saying, I even noticed the ECMWF picked up on the SW motion around 25N. Trends trends trends are you friend in these situations, which members shift 1k miles each run and which ones make slight adjustments?

Looks to me that the latest runs of the UKMet are indeed finally shifting north and looking more and more like any potential landfall will be well to the north of FL, and perhaps Ga. as LarryWX has pointed out. Again landfall is a huge 'if'. I just don't see Flo heading due west for nearly 2000 miles. In fact I know there is a lot of modeling and speculation that landfall is nearly certain, I still think that OTS is still a bigger probabilty than any other solution given that fact that she is so far north and still so far out there.

[OuterBanker]

Patiently waiting for the all clear.

Unfortunately, it does appear that the Euro so far has been the most accurate in anticipating the strength and track.

And it is the worse case scenario for us.

[Ubuntwo]

For reference, a map of all storms to pass within 200 nautical miles of Florence's position as of the latest advisory. The only one to make landfall on the US is an unnamed hurricane from 1901.

[chaser1]

For reference, a map of all storms to pass within 200 nautical miles of Florence's position as of the latest advisory. The only one to make landfall on the US is an unnamed hurricane from 1901.
https://i.imgur.com/IWsbow0.jpg

There's always gotta be that one damn blind squirrel

[ava_ati]

when it comes to the UKMET, which one has the models been doing the UKMET coming to the ECMWF and GFS or have the ECMWF and GFS been trending toward the UKMET? Ukmet has stayed pretty solid on its southern solution while the others were OTS... Here we are and the members of the ECMWF are starting to come more inline with what the UKMET has been saying, I even noticed the ECMWF picked up on the SW motion around 25N. Trends trends trends are you friend in these situations, which members shift 1k miles each run and which ones make slight adjustments?

Looks to me that the latest runs of the UKMet are indeed finally shifting north and looking more and more like any potential landfall will be well to the north of FL, and perhaps Ga. as LarryWX has pointed out. Again landfall is a huge 'if'. I just don't see Flo heading due west for nearly 2000 miles. In fact I know there is a lot of modeling and speculation that landfall is nearly certain, I still think that OTS is still a bigger probabilty than any other solution given that fact that she is so far north and still so far out there.

It has moved north some but in uncertain tracks like these you really have to take ensembles into account
I just think the UKMET has been the most consistent in its forecast and it has my attention. Basically nobody is out of the woods either way.

[clambite]

Yeah, I'm in Morehead City and Chapel Hill, and Flo certainly has my attention !

[chaser1]

All in all we'll very likely see the 0Z UK hedge a tad further north, but will we equally see the EURO a tad further south? If Flo stops gaining latitude and moves a bit west a little faster, don't be surprised if we see the GFS with a significant shift to the south and west in tomorrow's 6Z or 12Z package. All possibilities are on the table (including recurving OTS), but this is looking a lot more real for you folks in South & North Carolina then it was a couple days ago.

[HurricaneIrma]

All in all we'll very likely see the 0Z UK hedge a tad further north, but will we equally see the EURO a tad further south? If Flo stops gaining latitude and moves a bit west a little faster, don't be surprised if we see the GFS with a significant shift to the south and west in tomorrow's 6Z or 12Z package. All possibilities are on the table (including recurving OTS), but this is looking a lot more real for you folks in South & North Carolina then it was a couple days ago.

I live in South Carolina

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS already slightly south of 12Z out through 18 hours so far.

[ava_ati]

18Z GFS already slightly south of 12Z out through 18 hours so far.

Think we will be saying this over and over but the ridge above it is stronger this run

[p1nheadlarry]

I remember when all model guidance, save the ECMWF, had Joaquin slam into the Carolinas with less time to prepare. Of course the region still experienced flooding which Joaquin exacerbated and surely many were prepared for Joaquin to knock on the door, but you never know.

[johngaltfla]

When all of the local mets post information and models on a storm which is not a threat to Western Florida, you can tell this could be a huge problem and news maker. Hope everyone on the East coast from Jacksonville, FL to Boston is awake now and prepared.

[floridasun78]

18Z GFS already slightly south of 12Z out through 18 hours so far.

Think we will be saying this over and over but the ridge above it is stronger this run

i see new run starting sw movement let see if only wobble to still moving bit more to sw

[tarheelprogrammer]

The set up looks to possibly help an OTS solution on the 18z. Possibly more interaction with trough.

Edit: Or not smh

[floridasun78]

could gfs now join uk we see next hour?

[JaxGator]

At 78 hours, the ridge starts to build.

[LarryWx]

when it comes to the UKMET, which one has the models been doing the UKMET coming to the ECMWF and GFS or have the ECMWF and GFS been trending toward the UKMET? Ukmet has stayed pretty solid on its southern solution while the others were OTS... Here we are and the members of the ECMWF are starting to come more inline with what the UKMET has been saying, I even noticed the ECMWF picked up on the SW motion around 25N. Trends trends trends are you friend in these situations, which members shift 1k miles each run and which ones make slight adjustments?

Looks to me that the latest runs of the UKMet are indeed finally shifting north and looking more and more like any potential landfall will be well to the north of FL, and perhaps Ga. as LarryWX has pointed out. Again landfall is a huge 'if'. I just don't see Flo heading due west for nearly 2000 miles. In fact I know there is a lot of modeling and speculation that landfall is nearly certain, I still think that OTS is still a bigger probabilty than any other solution given that fact that she is so far north and still so far out there.

It has moved north some but in uncertain tracks like these you really have to take ensembles into account
I just think the UKMET has been the most consistent in its forecast and it has my attention. Basically nobody is out of the woods either way.
http://i.imgur.com/CDGNeyI.jpg

The UKMET ensemble mean is a clear southern outlier of the variosu ensembles. If that isn't enough, it was initialized 50 miles too far SW and it tends to have a left bias. Plus, the UKMET operational has been trending N due to too far SW initializations of its own.