ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hammy]

All storms near Florence's current location have curved OTS. Yes, Florence could buck the trend and be the first one not to. I am a big fan of climatology.

I hear you and I agree. Leaning on climo makes sense. On the other hand that logic skunked us pretty bad just a year ago with Irma. The last storm to impact the US from close to Irma's origin was the Georgia sea islands hurricane of 1893 so when that storm formed 3500 miles from us i initially put it in the disregard pile. but 12 days later she bent the pines pretty good around here. The current 5 day track from the NHC would have me tuning in each day with intense interest from the mid atlantic northward...and of course in Bermuda.

Ike would be another example, wasn't hitting Cuba from where it was at by 60W unprecedented? This is a similar situation where the high rebuilds, and in such an unusual setup as we might have playing out, climatology might not be as valuable.

[TheDreamTraveler]

some 12z ECMWF stuff

[weathaguyry]

As impressive as the weakening and quick westward turn has been, I would assume that since it will move into favorable conditions, it may rapidly intensify and move a bit more poleward to make up for the quick west turn. We are within about 7 days now, and I would guess that the models will begin to key in on a general area that will be impacted. If I lived south of the Carolinas, I would feel a little bit better since the models are not progressively moving south and west on each run, but rather they are bouncing around generally between the Carolinas and OTS, this doesn't mean that there is a 0% of it going farther south, but in my opinion it is probably more likely that this will be an issue for the Mid-Atlantic/NE as opposed to the SE/Florida. The newest GFS run sharply curves it OTS off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but it blows it up into a 910mb death storm that would rival the size of Sandy so I don't know how accurate it is. Everyone on the East coast should stay on guard, this has the potential to be a very dangerous storm for somebody!

[gatorcane]

Big south shift by FV3 GFS.

[tgenius]

Big south shift by FV3 GFS.

https://s8.postimg.cc/np1n1u1xx/fv3p_z5 ... atl_21.png

Gator what did it look like on last run? How much of a drop?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I still think the models are missing the strength of the High Pressure over the Atlantic. They have trended stronger all season, and the anomalously warm water off the east coast tends to support that. I thinks thats why they are trending south and west if you look at the long term model evolution.

[wxman57]

Discussions of Florence should be placed in the discussion thread. This thread should be for posting models, right? We shouldn't discuss the potential track in two threads. Post models here, discuss there...

[SFLcane]

Big south shift by FV3 GFS.

That’s pretty significant southward shift there with the FV3

[Bocadude85]

For the first time from what I can see, the 18z HWRF is tracking Florence WSW, she actually gets back below 25N to almost 55W.

[seahawkjd]

Discussions of Florence should be placed in the discussion thread. This thread should be for posting models, right? We shouldn't discuss the potential track in two threads. Post models here, discuss there...

Am I wrong that this thread is also for discussion of the models (which would include potential path by default)? That way you don't have model images posted in the other thread to illustrate discussions. I bow to WXman57 as the mod and expert, but I'm confused.

[storm4u]

All the 18Z GEFS members are north of South Carolina

[BYG Jacob]

All storms near Florence's current location have curved OTS. Yes, Florence could buck the trend and be the first one not to. I am a big fan of climatology.

This is understandable, but as a met, isn't it your job to look at the individual synoptic setup for each storm instead of general trends?

[blp]

For the first time from what I can see, the 18z HWRF is tracking Florence WSW, she actually gets back below 25N to almost 55W.

A good shift south on the HWRF.

[floridasun78]

For the first time from what I can see, the 18z HWRF is tracking Florence WSW, she actually gets back below 25N to almost 55W.

A good shift south on the HWRF.

but close end move like nw

[blp]

All the 18Z GEFS members are north of South Carolina

That is a south shift from the 12z. Everything keeps sliding south today.

[SFLcane]

Big shift south to with the 18z nogaps...

[Steve]

GFS trying to produce a 915mb tropical cyclone just south of 40N, trash model.

Lane was a major hurricane over 26.5c waters.

It's not the SST that matter, It's the latitude. There have been no TC in the world that can deepen into such pressures at that latitude. Also, You can get a CAT3 at 26C waters doesn't mean you can easily get a CAT5. The physics just don't support such.

Latitude won’t matter if there is a giant high parked north of it as many of the models show. It’s not an everyday setup, but I’d be surprised if it’s not a major by 74/75/76W and is coming up.

[pgoss11]

Big shift south to with the 18z nogaps...

Can you post that please?

[mitchell]

Big south shift by FV3 GFS.

Another CRAZY thing about the 18z FV3 GFS.....

Its has FLorence near 30N 60W on the 10th...and then has Florence near 30N 60W 9 days later on the 19th!

[jlauderdal]

Discussions of Florence should be placed in the discussion thread. This thread should be for posting models, right? We shouldn't discuss the potential track in two threads. Post models here, discuss there...

Can we discuss the model solutions track and intensity or just post models?