ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1461 Postby lando » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:26 am

TY KIngArabian for the chart. UKM ENS MEAN has shifted 3 degrees north, to 32n 80 w from 29n 80 w at 12z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1462 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:27 am

I was wrong on the last part of the new UKMET. I thought the entire run would be further north due to correcting too far SW initializations. It actually is further north through 60W, where it is now up to ~26.5N vs the 25.9N of the prior run. However, it then ends up 2 degrees further south as it approaches the SE US.

What will the 0Z UKMET ensembles show? I predicted fewer members making FL landfalls. Will this be wrong?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1463 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:29 am

LarryWx wrote:I was wrong on the last part of the new UKMET. I thought the entire run would be further north due to correcting too far SW initializations. It actually is further north through 60W, where it is now up to ~26.5N vs the 25.9N of the prior run. However, it then ends up 2 degrees further south as it approaches the SE US.

What will the 0Z UKMET ensembles show? I predicted fewer members making FL landfalls. Will this be wrong?

Hey Larry, looks like quite a few still show Florida impacts (posted on the previous page), and some even get this into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1464 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:30 am

Kingarabian wrote:
lando wrote:anyone got the UKM ensembles? maybe that cool little gif?


00z UK-ENS:
Image

LarryWx wrote:I was wrong on the last part of the new UKMET. I thought the entire run would be further north due to correcting too far SW initializations. It actually is further north through 60W, where it is now up to ~26.5N vs the 25.9N of the prior run. However, it then ends up 2 degrees further south as it approaches the SE US.

What will the 0Z UKMET ensembles show? I predicted fewer members making FL landfalls. Will this be wrong?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1465 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:31 am

Kinda ironic that the UKMET is showing a wider model spread than prior runs which had a confidence even from 8-9 days out.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1466 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:36 am

It's absolute bathwater off the SE coast...few degrees warmer than where she strengthened the first time IIRC.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1467 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:45 am

Yikes :double: :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1468 Postby lando » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 am

Brent wrote:Yikes :double: :eek:


3 solid camps here
Last edited by lando on Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1469 Postby lando » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:50 am

Next Advisory comes out in 1 hour, wont be surprised to see it shifted SW again
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1470 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:52 am

Kingarabian wrote:
lando wrote:anyone got the UKM ensembles? maybe that cool little gif?


00z UK-ENS:


Thanks for posting, King.

Yeah, almost as many FL hits on the new UK ens, which is a surprise to me. However, the highest concentration has shifted from S FL to N FL thus allowing the mean track to be 2 degrees further north just off the SE coast.

Meanwhile, regarding the new Euro ens, :eek: :eek: That one is looking just about as bad as that real bad one from a few runs ago. Ugly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1471 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:58 am

I honestly would not be surprised if we see even more S shifts between today and tomorrow and maybe even after that...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1472 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:14 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1473 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:25 am

This is what the Euro is showing in terms of gusts for the SC/NC coast around 1:00 pm on next Thursday.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1474 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:32 am

AutoPenalti wrote:I honestly would not be surprised if we see even more S shifts between today and tomorrow and maybe even after that...


Especially with what i'm expecting to be a significant southward shift by the GFS starting possibly at 6Z, but almost certainly by the 12Z today. Wouldn't surprise me if it overtakes the EURO in terms of carrying Flo further west on these and subsequent runs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1475 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:42 am

GFS 10mb weaker and 3/10º south at HR30. Winds look weaker as well, reflective of realtime trends.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1476 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:43 am

Significantly weaker at HR42, moving at ~265-270. Progged to be 27mb weaker than the same point from yesterday's 06z (986 vs 959).

Interesting
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1477 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:52 am

06z GFS, Hour 60...something to note is the orientation of the ridge north of Florence. It’s much flatter and East to West than it has been in previous runs.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1478 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:57 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Significantly weaker at HR42, moving at ~265-270. Progged to be 27mb weaker than the same point from yesterday's 06z (986 vs 959).

Interesting


All along I was going with Flo at Flo(rence S.C.), but really beginning to question the possibility of Flo at Flo(rida). Hmmmmm, would then have to then rename her to FlaFlo lol??
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1479 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:58 am

06z GFS, hour 84, further South than 00z.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1480 Postby NC_Cyclone » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:03 am

06z gfs hour 90 is EXATCLY identical to 00z euro for track.
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