ATL: ISAAC - Models

[tolakram]

This could just be the modiki el nino. Last time that happened, Katrina hit LA then shortly afterwards Rita hit Texas. Gordon just hit gulf shores, who's next?
Texas pay attention. The gulf is still hot and that ridge is stout my friends. Weather likes to repeat

2005 was cold neutral into a weak la nina in 2006. I'm not sure why you mentioned modiki here. 2004 was a modiki el nino, but considered weak.

[StPeteMike]

With Florence projected path staying due west or even WSW, what kind of affects would that have on 92L? Or with Florence being such a small storm, would there be little or no impact on it?

[wxGuy]

With Florence projected path staying due west or even WSW, what kind of affects would that have on 92L? Or with Florence being such a small storm, would there be little or no impact on it?

it makes 92L a Caribbean cruiser

[Frank2]

SSTs and highs are are not the only ingredients - Gordon remained weak because of shear, even though an upper high was nearby and SSTs are at their maximum. When it comes o a tropical system, there are more things that can weaken it than can strengthen it...

P.S. Joe Bastardi is the only met going on about a modified El Nino - I wouldn't pay too much mind to anything he says. The GFS does not show this becoming a GOM system.

[SoupBone]

This could just be the modiki el nino. Last time that happened, Katrina hit LA then shortly afterwards Rita hit Texas. Gordon just hit gulf shores, who's next?
Texas pay attention. The gulf is still hot and that ridge is stout my friends. Weather likes to repeat

You did this with Gordon. Your comparisons to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are not based in reality and are premature to say the least.

[stormlover2013]

well with gordon ridge broke down and front was little stronger than what models thought 5-7 days out and caught on 3-4 days out.

[wxGuy]

This could just be the modiki el nino. Last time that happened, Katrina hit LA then shortly afterwards Rita hit Texas. Gordon just hit gulf shores, who's next?
Texas pay attention. The gulf is still hot and that ridge is stout my friends. Weather likes to repeat

You did this with Gordon. Your comparisons to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are not based in reality and are premature to say the least.

I do it mostly for controversy

[Agua]

I do it mostly for controversy

Seems like there's a term for that ....

[supercane4867]

12z GFS sends it across the Caribbean then all the way into the Gulf

[toad strangler]

The GFS keeps flip flopping between killing off and survival of 92L though it's Caribbean trek. 12z is survival. Far flung long range though. Misses PR to the S BTW

[supercane4867]

[stormlover2013]

That’s a mid October to early nov pattern if it gets to gom then mex-la

[AJC3]

I do it mostly for controversy

Seems like there's a term for that ....

Yup. It's called "begging the mods and admins for a board warning."

[SoupBone]

The GFS keeps flip flopping between killing off and survival of 92L though it's Caribbean trek. 12z is survival. Far flung long range though. Misses PR to the S BTW

The one thing it's been fairly consistent with though, is that it's not a fish if the GFS is to be believed.

[jlauderdal]

That’s a mid October to early nov pattern if it gets to gom then mex-la

huh, mid oct to november that region is usually shut down as the troughs make too far south to allow such westward progress

[cycloneye]

12z Euro again threats Lesser Antilles Islands as a Tropical Storm.

[Gustywind]

12z Euro again threats Lesser Antilles Islands as a Tropical Storm.

ouch... very close from Dominica and... Guadeloupe Yes TS status. Hopefully we're a bit far away Luis from reality at least for now.

[SoupBone]

12z Euro again threats Lesser Antilles Islands as a Tropical Storm.

ouch... very close from Dominica and... Guadeloupe Yes TS status. Hopefully we're a bit far away Luis from reality at least for now.

Still a ways out but what concerns me is the consistency of missing any weakness to head out. It's going to be someone's problem if that doesn't change. And the out to sea Euro runs have ceased.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon,

Soupbone wanted to run a possibility by you. Could Florence making it to the east coast create enough weakness in the ridge to allow, for future storm 92 L once it's in the SW Caribbean to feel that weakness and head back to the NE. That would normally be an October type setup difference being a cold front would cause the turn to the NE.

[stormlover2013]

won't happen, this will be a mexico to la type storm.......it won't make that type of right curve, trough, fronts, won't be that strong this time of year that's a mid october pattern.