ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[txwatcher91]

This gets closer to the extreme SE states every single run...

Not really, this run of the GFS is identical at hour 114 to the previous run. No change at all. Maybe some small fluctuations at times on the motion but it smooths out by 114. This will likely be another coastal NC scraper.

[pgoss11]

This 12Z run looks identical to the 06Z at 114hrs.

[Blown Away]

This gets closer to the extreme SE states every single run...

Each GFS run has slowed Flo just a bit and allowed time for the HP to build over the SE CONUS and continues to push Flo a little S each of the past few runs. JMHO.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This gets closer to the extreme SE states every single run...

Not really, this run of the GFS is identical at hour 114 to the previous run. No change at all. Maybe some small fluctuations at times on the motion but it smooths out by 114. This will likely be another coastal NC scraper.

I was mainly talking about the tilt of the ridge and the background setup that will steer this storm.

[toad strangler]

This 12Z run looks identical to the 06Z at 114hrs.

This

[Aric Dunn]

GFS

[Bocadude85]

Mean while the crazy Canadian model had Flo south of 24N in 36 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Mean while the crazy Canadian model had Flo south of 24N in 36 hours

Considering Florences current motion that might not be out of the question.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS looks exactly like the 00z Euro..

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/1038096056599420928

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 24.9N 51.4W 993 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.6N 52.1W 995 60
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 24.5N 53.4W 992 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.4N 54.4W 991 53
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 24.4N 55.6W 988 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 24.6N 57.2W 984 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 24.8N 59.6W 982 55
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 24.7N 62.3W 973 66
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 25.1N 65.2W 971 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 25.8N 68.3W 971 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 27.2N 71.5W 959 79
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 28.6N 74.3W 950 84
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 30.4N 76.8W 944 89

[AxaltaRacing24]

Landfall a bit more south

[Blown Away]

GFS continues to shift S and HP building W on top of Flo...

[ronjon]

12z UKMET shifted south. Look out Georgia!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Intensity was near sub-930mb for landfall.

[sma10]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 24.9N 51.4W 993 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.6N 52.1W 995 60
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 24.5N 53.4W 992 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.4N 54.4W 991 53
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 24.4N 55.6W 988 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 24.6N 57.2W 984 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 24.8N 59.6W 982 55
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 24.7N 62.3W 973 66
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 25.1N 65.2W 971 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 25.8N 68.3W 971 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 27.2N 71.5W 959 79
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 28.6N 74.3W 950 84
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 30.4N 76.8W 944 89

Wow, the takeaway here is that the 5 day position (120hr) still has Florence at the relative latitude of around West Palm Beach, FL. Still a lot of options at play here.

[hurricaneCW]

The ridge is flexing its muscle at 96 hours and has expanded westward to the coast. What role 94L plays in all of this remains to be seen. I would think that it will cause some shear over Florence and allow for more weakening while at the same time leaving a weakness in the ridge.

The only way this would cause shear over Flo is if it were to rapidly intensity into a system. Flo will remain the dominant storm with a much larger circulation, impacts will be little to none with this.

It would really have to become a storm for it to create a significant weakness that might affect Florence.

[Blown Away]

Notice GFS like Euro buries Flo into CONUS vs abrupt loop... Sign models picking up on stronger HP...

[p1nheadlarry]

Intensity was near sub-930mb for landfall.

Where did you see that?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Intensity was near sub-930mb for landfall.

Where did you see that?

GFS pressures. and I meant to say 935