ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Could 94l effect it’s path?

I would think so. Definitely a new wrinkle!

[Hurricane Andrew]

ADT continuing to trend slightly upward, adjusted now at 2.8/41kt, up from a low of 2.2/35kt. Also of note, all the flags are now off.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06L-list.txt

[meriland29]

So I am just starting to see the GFS trend on Florence with the EC being in question. Does anyone have a graph of the projected water temps at projected near landfall longitude? It seems a bit north which hopefully could keep it from strengthening, but I am not sure of this. GFS projects a major and still major by the time it is closer to the states so far but I am wondering if they are taking the water temps into consideration or if there is a reason it is of little effect

[seahawkjd]

So I am just starting to see the GFS trend on Florence with the EC being in question. Does anyone have a graph of the projected water temps at projected near landfall longitude? It seems a bit north which hopefully could keep it from strengthening, but I am not sure of this. GFS projects a major and still major by the time it is closer to the states so far but I am wondering if they are taking the water temps into consideration or if there is a reason it is of little effect

Very high temperatures. https://www.seatemperature.org/. I believe 80's all around the area its heading to.

[meriland29]

Could 94l effect it’s path?

I would think so. Definitely a new wrinkle!

Question is if it is, in which direction?

[meriland29]

So I am just starting to see the GFS trend on Florence with the EC being in question. Does anyone have a graph of the projected water temps at projected near landfall longitude? It seems a bit north which hopefully could keep it from strengthening, but I am not sure of this. GFS projects a major and still major by the time it is closer to the states so far but I am wondering if they are taking the water temps into consideration or if there is a reason it is of little effect

Very high temperatures. https://www.seatemperature.org/. I believe 80's all around the area its heading to.

Thanks for the quick reply. You are right. I am very surprised (it might not at all be unusual) that the water temps are that warm all the way almost up to MA. I would expect it a little in SC/NC but it is scary that it is north of that quite a bit. Definitely going to keep a close close eye on this one.

[Aric Dunn]

Hugh clouds are thinning and you can now see the center pretty clear the last few images.

looks about 24.5n 24.7 ish and still moving south of west.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hugh clouds are thinning and you can now see the center pretty clear the last few images.

looks about 24.5n 24.7 ish and still moving south of west.

As soon as the shear lets up and she gets pulled under that heavy convection, it's all systems go. Question is, will that be tonight, tomorrow, or the day after?

[meriland29]

Hugh clouds are thinning and you can now see the center pretty clear the last few images.

looks about 24.5n 24.7 ish and still moving south of west.

Do you by any chance have a satellite loop?

[Aric Dunn]

Hugh clouds are thinning and you can now see the center pretty clear the last few images.

looks about 24.5n 24.7 ish and still moving south of west.

Do you by any chance have a satellite loop?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Kazmit]

Florence's wind field has expanded a lot since its formation.

[Aric Dunn]

next advisory position is going to be likely around 24.5 or lower given there is still 4 hours of south of west movement.. assuming it continues too. already south of NHC track and half of the models tracks.

[plasticup]

Florence's wind field has expanded a lot since its formation.

Still a small, compact storm though

[meriland29]

next advisory position is going to be likely around 24.5 or lower given there is still 4 hours of south of west movement.. assuming it continues too. already south of NHC track and half of the models tracks.

That is interesting. This slight stall is really confusing yet may be extremely important seeing as it will limit the amount of time for preperation for those far south of NC/SC who are under the impression thus far that it is favoring that area. I have no doubt the NHC will be on top of that, but that big of a possible transition with around 6 days left is a little uncomfortable.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1038103682678710273

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1038087516686049285

[chaser1]

Looking for a little bit of a tip-off where Florence might eventually track? Assuming eventual T.D. or T.S. development, keep an eye on 94L Nothing exact, but an indication of E. Coast/W. Atlantic ridging.

[chaser1]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

[jlauderdal]

next advisory position is going to be likely around 24.5 or lower given there is still 4 hours of south of west movement.. assuming it continues too. already south of NHC track and half of the models tracks.

That is interesting. This slight stall is really confusing yet may be extremely important seeing as it will limit the amount of time for preparation for those far south of NC/SC who are under the impression thus far that it is favoring that area. I have no doubt the NHC will be on top of that, but that big of a possible transition with around 6 days left is a little uncomfortable.

most preps should already be done for those peeps in hurricane territory, they will have plenty of time to complete preparations IF they have done what they were supposed to do months ago...everyone else from the islands to cuba to the gulf region should take the future helen track as a warning and floridians we are just getting started with our prime time, sept-oct, NO EXCUSES

[Cumulonimbus_Ca]

...climatology...

I'm super interested in this. As far as I can tell, most 'climatological' tropical storm predictions seem useless in a world with changing climate. Water temperatures are different. Patterns are different. Why would the climate be a good indicator of where a current storm is going? I don't follow the logic here at all. It is using a static variable to guess a moving target. It's not going to work.

And where do these people get off suggesting that climate-based historical tracks of hurricanes are an indicator *at all* of where a current storm is going? Is there evidence to support this? It seems to me that it is a lot more likely that a storm in a current position has *never* closely resembled the starting conditions of any storm in history. I would suggest that the people using climatology tracks are being dense on-purpose, as I think there is no evidence whatsoever to support their points.

Are there any studies or data on the effectiveness of climatological data when looking at storm paths today? Is the effectiveness decreasing or was it never effective to begin with?