ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I won’t say the name that begins with A, but NHC using “Exceptional High Pressure” “Acceleration” and seems Flo going to have fantastic ventilation speeding below a HP... Setup kinda similar...

Why not? I don't know which system you're referencing otherwise. Do you mean Andrew 92'?

[AxaltaRacing24]

I won’t say the name that begins with A, but NHC using “Exceptional High Pressure” “Acceleration” and seems Flo going to have fantastic ventilation speeding below a HP... Setup kinda similar...

Why not? I don't know which system you're referencing otherwise. Do you mean Andrew 92'?

Around here, that's the "A" word.

[chaser1]

Except it really isn't, and your anology is wrong.

Feel free to elaborate

Climatology isn't the DNA of where a storm goes. And its silly to act like it is. Look at the synoptic setup around each individual storm, not what other storms did.

Synoptic ARE everything. Climo provides a perspective of many many cases. More accurately stated, Climo in conjunction with Statistical data have provided a great deal of leveraging our past and current ability to anticipate tropical cyclone evolution and forecast track. Synoptic data is of course the ingredients that cause each and every circumstance to be viewed and judged uniquely. Watch 1,000 squirrels for a period of time and one might get a general perspective of likely movement and pattern of motion. That's predictive insight; doesn't mean that one of 'em ain't gonna come out of nowhere and bite you on the *ss though LOL. Climo offers us many years of reliable data to project and anticipate what circumstances occurred that often caused similar results. I"m not sure anyone here ever suggested it applies 100%. It never does and never will. I don't think there's an argument here. More likely a misuse by some by simply referring to Climo when perhaps meaning "statistical" (or a combination of both).

I think some here have been a bit quick to jump on an expression or term that others may have expressed incorrectly. I too was irritated at so many who early on immediately called Florence "a fish". One cannot simply make for sure assumptions, even if they might be right 9 out of 10 times. The synoptic pattern obviously proved those "fish rants" to be incorrect.

[BYG Jacob]

Climatology isn't the DNA of where a storm goes. And its silly to act like it is. Look at the synoptic setup around each individual storm, not what other storms did.

Synoptic ARE everything. Climo provides a perspective of many many cases. More accurately stated, Climo in conjunction with Statistical data have provided a great deal of leveraging our past and current ability to anticipate tropical cyclone evolution and forecast track. Synoptic data is of course the ingredients that cause each and every circumstance to be viewed and judged uniquely. Watch 1,000 squirrels for a period of time and one might get a general perspective of likely movement and pattern of motion. That's predictive insight; doesn't mean that one of 'em ain't gonna come out of nowhere and bite you on the *ss though LOL. Climo offers us many years of reliable data to project and anticipate what circumstances occurred that often caused similar results. I"m not sure anyone here ever suggested it applies 100%. It never does and never will. I don't think there's an argument here. More likely a misuse by some by simply referring to Climo when perhaps meaning "statistical" (or a combination of both).

I think some here have been a bit quick to jump on an expression or term that others may have expressed incorrectly. I too was irritated at so many who early on immediately called Florence "a fish". One cannot simply make for sure assumptions, even if they might be right 9 out of 10 times. The synoptic pattern obviously proved those "fish rants" to be incorrect.

Ah, my mistake. Thought you were one of those people like last year that argued there was no way that Irma was going to impact the CONUS, and that people were doing that again with Florence. And as for your point about climo, I agree. I just don't think climo has any application with this particular storm given the unique setup. Back to model watching I go.

[meriland29]

I won’t say the name that begins with A, but NHC using “Exceptional High Pressure” “Acceleration” and seems Flo going to have fantastic ventilation speeding below a HP... Setup kinda similar...

Why not? I don't know which system you're referencing otherwise. Do you mean Andrew 92'?

I don't like using Andrew as a reference for potentially dangerous cyclones. It seems people throw that word around too freely when any hurricane is en route because of some similarity between the two. No two hurricanes are identical (like A fingerprint) I will just consider her Florence for whatever that means...be that she ends up weaker or stronger..

[eastcoastFL]

From the 5pm:

The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

Just a small thing I noticed. Up till now they have been saying "Impacts to the Continental US, if any".

Ya they're not gonna give us any hints yet.

[SootyTern]

I won’t say the name that begins with A, but NHC using “Exceptional High Pressure” “Acceleration” and seems Flo going to have fantastic ventilation speeding below a HP... Setup kinda similar...

Why not? I don't know which system you're referencing otherwise. Do you mean Andrew 92'?

Around here, that's the "A" word.

That and 'Annular'

[Hurricane Andrew]

Why not? I don't know which system you're referencing otherwise. Do you mean Andrew 92'?

Around here, that's the "A" word.

That and 'Annular'

That's what I thought he meant at first, and I was rather confused.

[chaser1]

Climatology isn't the DNA of where a storm goes. And its silly to act like it is. Look at the synoptic setup around each individual storm, not what other storms did.

Synoptic ARE everything. Climo provides a perspective of many many cases. More accurately stated, Climo in conjunction with Statistical data have provided a great deal of leveraging our past and current ability to anticipate tropical cyclone evolution and forecast track. Synoptic data is of course the ingredients that cause each and every circumstance to be viewed and judged uniquely. Watch 1,000 squirrels for a period of time and one might get a general perspective of likely movement and pattern of motion. That's predictive insight; doesn't mean that one of 'em ain't gonna come out of nowhere and bite you on the *ss though LOL. Climo offers us many years of reliable data to project and anticipate what circumstances occurred that often caused similar results. I"m not sure anyone here ever suggested it applies 100%. It never does and never will. I don't think there's an argument here. More likely a misuse by some by simply referring to Climo when perhaps meaning "statistical" (or a combination of both).

I think some here have been a bit quick to jump on an expression or term that others may have expressed incorrectly. I too was irritated at so many who early on immediately called Florence "a fish". One cannot simply make for sure assumptions, even if they might be right 9 out of 10 times. The synoptic pattern obviously proved those "fish rants" to be incorrect.

Ah, my mistake. Thought you were one of those people like last year that argued there was no way that Irma was going to impact the CONUS, and that people were doing that again with Florence. And as for your point about climo, I agree. I just don't think climo has any application with this particular storm given the unique setup. Back to model watching I go.

No prob 1st beer on the Savannah pier watching the cloud deck lower next Thursday, is on me!

[northjaxpro]

A very astute post and discertation expressed by you. above chaser1.

It is all part of the fascination and study of this science called meteorology. It is why I love it!

[SeaBrz_FL]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

What??? The 70 mile stretch of land between the SC coast and Florence, SC would like to have some words with you.

Yeah, too bad she's not named Myrtle (Beach). No, I am DEFINITELY not wishing this beast on the good folks there - or actually anyone on the EC. Everyone get ready.

[chaser1]

I won’t say the name that begins with A, but NHC using “Exceptional High Pressure” “Acceleration” and seems Flo going to have fantastic ventilation speeding below a HP... Setup kinda similar...

Why not? I don't know which system you're referencing otherwise. Do you mean Andrew 92'?

I don't like using Andrew as a reference for potentially dangerous cyclones. It seems people throw that word around too freely when any hurricane is en route because of some similarity between the two. No two hurricanes are identical (like A fingerprint) I will just consider her Florence for whatever that means...be that she ends up weaker or stronger..

Kinda why I sort of like "Florandrew"; Not quite Andrew and more like some alien hybrid lol

[SeaBrz_FL]

Brevard County (FL) EOC already activating.

"9/7/18 | Large waves from #Florence could make beach conditions extremely rough this weekend; with dangerous surf and rip currents. Always remember to be safe when visiting our beaches and to swim near a lifeguard."

twitter: @brevardeoc

[chaser1]

:uarrow: A very astute post and discertation expressed by you. above chaser1.

It is all part of the fascination and study of this science called meteorology. It is why I love it!

You're just sayin' that cause i'm buying the first round at the "Oh No, It's Flo" Pier Party next week Name your poison, Pilsner, IPA, a dark Porter?
(j/k, I appreciate the sentiments)

[dspguy]

I always feel like watching the models is like a game of hot potato. Sometimes it better to be holding the potato (being the landfall point of the mean) because you know it will still shift. Like right now, you still know that the music isn't stopping anytime soon. Maybe the potato will get tossed one way or the other way still. But, when you are down to about 3 days or so, the music is stopping real soon and you certainly don't want to still be holding it then.

Mmmm. Potatoes. I really need to start making dinner.

[RL3AO]

I have officially become intrigued about Florence as a resident of NC. I live in the Raleigh area so I'm not too worried about severe impacts, but I suspect we could some power outages if the center passes near me and of course all those people who may need to evac from the coast!

[birddogsc]

Looks like Teal 14 is heading somewhere for staging?

[SoupBone]

Around here, that's the "A" word.

That and 'Annular'

That's what I thought he meant at first, and I was rather confused.

That's why I asked. People say "the storm that cannot be named" when referencing Hurricane Katrina, and I'm always saying no one knows what you're talking about. Typing out the word "Hurricane Katrina" doesn't speak it into existence.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I have officially become intrigued about Florence as a resident of NC. I live in the Raleigh area so I'm not too worried about severe impacts, but I suspect we could some power outages if the center passes near me and of course all those people who may need to evac from the coast!

Yeah power outages might be possible. When Irene went up the east coast in 2011 my power went out even though I'm way inland and Irene had weakened to a category 1. I see a lot of people underestimate tropical storm or category 1 hurricane force winds but they're a lot stronger than people think.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Teal 14 is heading somewhere for staging?

I wonder if they collect data on their way out to burmuda ? anything will help.