ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

This is how I see this playing out:
1. Out to sea still on table.
2. Red path to Carolinas, highest probability as of now.
3. Orange path, if S shifts continue and recon finds a stronger ridge.
4. Melbourne FL to Savannah GA, climatology/history not happening even if models show it, the models will eventually follow red or orange path.
5. Red & Blue circles represent the highest latitudes for Andrew/Ike before moving W towards SFL/GOM.
6. Everything still on table until these S shifts in models stop.


JMHO

Can you explain point 4 as to why climatology doesn't make this a likely area. Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Florence looking a bit sloppy. Northwesterly shear looks to be taking a little more of a toll then the last few hours. Seems to me that the LLC is once again drifting off the southwest and a little more separated from the MLC like earlier in the day.

Yeah its exposed again on the SW side. around 24.5N

[AJC3]

This is how I see this playing out:
1. Out to sea still on table.
2. Red path to Carolinas, highest probability as of now.
3. Orange path, if S shifts continue and recon finds a stronger ridge.
4. Melbourne FL to Savannah GA, climatology/history not happening even if models show it, the models will eventually follow red or orange path.
5. Red & Blue circles represent the highest latitudes for Andrew/Ike before moving W towards SFL/GOM.
6. Everything still on table until these S shifts in models stop.


JMHO

Can you explain point 4 as to why climatology doesn't make this a likely area. Thanks

All it means is that for a storm in Florence's current position, it will rarely make landfall in that area. Basically, it's a 'conditional' climatology.

[chaser1]

Florence looking a bit sloppy. Northwesterly shear looks to be taking a little more of a toll then the last few hours. Seems to me that the LLC is once again drifting off the southwest and a little more separated from the MLC like earlier in the day.

Some models had a TD within a day.

Curiously Flo pretty much plateaued today and appeared to be holding her own. Maybe she's scared of the dark lol. Either way, models have generally leaned toward further south and west in the near term. Wonder if/how much more this might be the case with an even weaker Florence?

[wxman57]

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

I'm no pro but I don't think that disturbance will have any effect. If Florence can't erode it then i don't think that will. Just my opinion.

I agree - no effect.

[Ken711]

Florence looking a bit sloppy. Northwesterly shear looks to be taking a little more of a toll then the last few hours. Seems to me that the LLC is once again drifting off the southwest and a little more separated from the MLC like earlier in the day.

Some models had a TD within a day.

Curiously Flo pretty much plateaued today and appeared to be holding her own. Maybe she's scared of the dark lol. Either way, models have generally leaned toward further south and west in the near term. Wonder if/how much more this might be the case with an even weaker Florence?

What are your thoughts as to track implications if it takes longer for Florence to reintensify back up to a major?

[Ken711]

I'm wondering if the pros can give me their opinion as to how that disturbance off the Carolina coast that the NHC is monitoring will affect Florence. Could it erode the ridge enough to steer Florence more northward as she approaches the coast (GFS)? I'm in Charleston SC and am wondering if this could possibly steer the storm away from us. Thanks in advance.

I'm no pro but I don't think that disturbance will have any effect. If Florence can't erode it then i don't think that will. Just my opinion.

I agree - no effect.

Do you think recon once it begins will verify the blocking high as stronger or weaker as this data is fed into the models?

[AubreyStorm]

Imagine if Florence and Olivia both hit the US at the same exact time

Olivia??

[Hurricaneman]

Imagine if Florence and Olivia both hit the US at the same exact time

Olivia??

Hawaii

[AubreyStorm]

Imagine if Florence and Olivia both hit the US at the same exact time

Olivia??

Hawaii

But if Depression 9 hit Puerto Rico?

[meriland29]

I think it is really interesting that she is still trecking WSW for quite a few hours past the projected W or WNW jog the NHC+ had it.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it is really interesting that she is still trecking WSW for quite a few hours past the projected W or WNW jog the NHC+ had it.

This doesn't surprise me one bit. In all my years of tracking storms this always seems to happen with a system influenced by a strong ridge and moving WSW. I can't tell you how many times I've watched the models and the forecasts for storms continually shift to the SW. Aric noted this a few days ago. When these things dive to the SW they normally take some time to return to a WNW or NW track.

[Ken711]

I think it is really interesting that she is still trecking WSW for quite a few hours past the projected W or WNW jog the NHC+ had it.

This doesn't surprise me one bit. In all my years of tracking storms this always seems to happen with a system influenced by a strong ridge and moving WSW. I can't tell you how many times I've watched the models and the forecasts for storms continually shift to the SW. Aric noted this a few days ago. When these things dive to the SW they normally take some time to return to a WNW or NW track.

Could there be some hope that the longer it takes to return to the NW or WNW track that the blocking high could weaken or move E, allowing an escape route for Florence?

[BobHarlem]

Governor Cooper of North Carolina declared a state of emergency for Florence. I can't recall that action done before the 5 day cone reaches it. I know it's mainly to free up resources and rules, but it still seems incredibly early.

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is really interesting that she is still trecking WSW for quite a few hours past the projected W or WNW jog the NHC+ had it.

This doesn't surprise me one bit. In all my years of tracking storms this always seems to happen with a system influenced by a strong ridge and moving WSW. I can't tell you how many times I've watched the models and the forecasts for storms continually shift to the SW. Aric noted this a few days ago. When these things dive to the SW they normally take some time to return to a WNW or NW track.

The center is completely exposed now. looks like 24.5 or less maybe 24.4N

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is how I see this playing out:
1. Out to sea still on table.
2. Red path to Carolinas, highest probability as of now.
3. Orange path, if S shifts continue and recon finds a stronger ridge.
4. Melbourne FL to Savannah GA, climatology/history not happening even if models show it, the models will eventually follow red or orange path.
5. Red & Blue circles represent the highest latitudes for Andrew/Ike before moving W towards SFL/GOM.
6. Everything still on table until these S shifts in models stop.


JMHO

Only one I don't agree with is #4. At a certain point you have to throw climatology out the window once a storm gets close enough given the setup that surrounds it. Climatology is great further out and Florence is still a decent way away...but given the setup I'd say there's more of a chance of #4 happening than it going completely below that...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shear has significantly picked up over Florence, almost completely decoupled.

[SouthFLTropics]

Governor Cooper of North Carolina declared a state of emergency for Florence. I can't recall that action done before the 5 day cone reaches it. I know it's mainly to free up resources and rules, but it still seems incredibly early.

Prior proper planning prevents piss poor performance. With the way things are looking it appears like his decision is justified and having additional time to coordinate and stage resources is valuable, especially before all of the evacuations begin. I would guess that many government agencies have learned some hard but valuable lessons over the years.

[Evenstar]

I think it is really interesting that she is still trecking WSW for quite a few hours past the projected W or WNW jog the NHC+ had it.

This doesn't surprise me one bit. In all my years of tracking storms this always seems to happen with a system influenced by a strong ridge and moving WSW. I can't tell you how many times I've watched the models and the forecasts for storms continually shift to the SW. Aric noted this a few days ago. When these things dive to the SW they normally take some time to return to a WNW or NW track.

Could there be some hope that the longer it takes to return to the NW or WNW track that the blocking high could weaken or move E, allowing an escape route for Florence?

Gawd, I hope so, Ken. I live in the Tidewater area of Southeast Virginia and as it stands right now, things are beginning to look rather grim.

[pgoss11]

Governor Cooper of North Carolina declared a state of emergency for Florence. I can't recall that action done before the 5 day cone reaches it. I know it's mainly to free up resources and rules, but it still seems incredibly early.

That is very early, especially since Florence looks like she's barley alive right now.