ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

But the FV3-GFS still landfalls in roughly the same location as the GFS.

Which is a big shift for this model. It wasn’t doing that until now. It only takes a few days more of “a bit west of the precious run” for new players to be introduced to the table.

Thanks, where was the FV3-GFS landfalling before? I was able to see that far at Tropical tidbits.

it missed nc slightly and did the loop and stall over water.

[Bocadude85]

But the FV3-GFS still landfalls in roughly the same location as the GFS.

Which is a big shift for this model. It wasn’t doing that until now. It only takes a few days more of “a bit west of the precious run” for new players to be introduced to the table.

Thanks, where was the FV3-GFS landfalling before? I was able to see that far at Tropical tidbits.

This is the first time the FV3-GFS has shown landfall

[eastcoastFL]

18z HWRF is a 915mb Cat 5.

At what point?? Landfall?

[supercane4867]

Probably a bit overdone but it shows how conditions are favorable for intensification

[Aric Dunn]

Probably a bit overdone but it shows how conditions are favorable for intensification

It looks like Isabel ......

[Ken711]

Which is a big shift for this model. It wasn’t doing that until now. It only takes a few days more of “a bit west of the precious run” for new players to be introduced to the table.

Thanks, where was the FV3-GFS landfalling before? I was able to see that far at Tropical tidbits.

it missed nc slightly and did the loop and stall over water.

I see now. I was thinking it was showing landfall farther north from the OBX rather than shifting west and making landfall.

[TheDreamTraveler]

18z HWRF is a 915mb Cat 5.

At what point?? Landfall?

Doesn't go far out enough for landfall yet. Ryan Maue seems to think that a category 5 is possible in that area with Florence. But obviously we don't know if it'll get that strong or be that strong at landfall. Given that the environment will be insanely good for it once it gets to that area I could see it being possible.

[Ken711]

Probably a bit overdone but it shows how conditions are favorable for intensification

It looks like Isabel ......

Wasn't Isabel showing winds of 105 mph at landfall. Florence could be even much stronger at landfall...not good.

[emeraldislenc]

Cat 5 wouid be devasting for our area

[artist]

[Blinhart]

Looking more and more like bad news for some one in the US, just wish it would of found the weakness and gone North.

[mcheer23]

00z early mods should run soon

[gatorcane]

I noticed every ECMWF run has shifted south and west since the 12Z Wed run, if you think we have locked into a landfall area yet, seems not the case.

[floridasun78]

nhc feel like this will be north Carolina issue maybe south Carolina their got feel their see high weakness by next week along coast hoping weakness will take off Carolina few 100 miles

[gatorcane]

I noticed every ECMWF run has shifted south and west since the 12Z Wed run, if you think we have locked into a landfall area yet, seems not the case.

On the other hand, remember when most of us called this ECMWF run a “one-off?” That run is from Tuesday night at 216 hours! Now look what the model consensus is showing.

[storm4u]

0z early models are out. Watch out North Carolina

[floridasun78]

0z early models are out. Watch out North Carolina

that nhc have idea were maybe go but we know more by mon

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's actually an animation if you click on it. It shows 3 of the Euro ensembles including the latest from today.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1038151712538685440

[mcheer23]

0z early models are out. Watch out North Carolina

Where did you find them? Not updating for me

[storm4u]

0z early models are out. Watch out North Carolina

Where did you find them? Not updating for me

Tropical tidbits. And go to current storms