ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

What are the chances the immense amount of sheer she is being hit with now will cause her to disintegrate completely ?

Unlikely...the LLC is very vigorous and well established. Andrew looked worse than this at one point and came roaring back under what will was very similar conditions that Florence will have.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So looking at the intensity models...Despite the ragged appearance and exposed center, Florence has a long path of very good conditions in less than 48 hours to start to intensify. So it's very doable she gets stronger than what the NHC is predicting. But intensity is even harder to forecast than track. I guess the thing to take away from all of this is that she'll have a very good environment to intensify and build before making landfall. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way to weaken her after she gets out of the shear soon.

[Ken711]

I am sticking with the Atlantic Beach/Morehead City/Ocracoke landfall.

Amazing area of NC, I hope I'm incorrect.

Im going on a limb for a rare GA landfall near the SC border.

I don't think the South shifting is done.

I'm sure it's possible, but then again the rest of the models could start honing in the OBX like the GFS seems to have done.

[Aric Dunn]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

If that is Flo's LLC, it's exposed and down near 24.4N...

yeppers that is it.. posted a loop and an image earlier.. its also still moving wsw

[Blown Away]

Then Flo is already at a lower latitude than any model has gone...

[jdjaguar]

I live in Emerald Isle NC and hope you are wrong about the predicted landfall

I hope I am as well.
OTS is my wish, but my analysis dictates SE landfall.

Could be JAX, but thinking recurve inline w main models.

We will know a lot more Sunday.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Then Flo is already at a lower latitude than any model has gone...

yepper and still chugging along south of west..

[Ken711]

:uarrow: Then Flo is already at a lower latitude than any model has gone...

Track implcations?

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Then Flo is already at a lower latitude than any model has gone...

yepper and still chugging along south of west..

Yep you can see the naked LLC SW of the blob of convection heading WSW:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1038228380230078466

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Down to 50 knots per ATCF.

[chaser1]

Some models had a TD within a day.

Curiously Flo pretty much plateaued today and appeared to be holding her own. Maybe she's scared of the dark lol. Either way, models have generally leaned toward further south and west in the near term. Wonder if/how much more this might be the case with an even weaker Florence?

What are your thoughts as to track implications if it takes longer for Florence to reintensify back up to a major?

Kind of depends. Lower surface trades might generally move a shallow system fairly east to west. Depending on the mid level steering, you might see an aligned deep layer steering in that same direction or quite possibly a more northwest (or polar) motion instead. For the large part this summer we've seen a pretty blocky ridging pattern across the Atlantic. It's still largely in place but we're generally at a time of year where those strong heights begin to fall and the westerlies tend to drop further south and we begin to see fronts drop where the long wave pattern seems to be especially setting up. Not yet seeing that pattern change with the westerlies causes me to assume that the predominant (albeit slightly weaker) mid level ridging has largely remained in place across much of the W. Atlantic and E. Conus. If the 500 mb ridge were strong enough (597-601 mb) there's nothing that would immediately plow through that lol but even stout mid level height around 594 should generally block a tropical storm/hurricane from recurvature unless the storm were approaching the southwest edge of that ridge and wear a weakness might be. So I'm not sure that even if Florence were to strengthen fairly soon that it would make a big difference in near term track. What I do think however, is that the potential solution whether Florence might strike Florida, the Carolina's, or points north of there is highly dependent on what the steering will be at that time of approach. Therefore (and as an example) stronger ridging that could be in place just off east of North Florida in 4 days... might not be as strong or begin to erode in 6 days. So my answer to your question regarding implications affecting motion I think lies less right now to do with intensity, and more to do with practically stalling for a day, or perhaps a slow West to WSW motion for 36 to 48 hours, or for the storm to begin moving west to WNW at 15 knots. Now the "timing" has changed and the weight and strength of building, eroding, or orientation of that 500 mb steering level closer in to the Southeast U.S. might then result differently then if Florence were not to show up to the party for another day or two. Is the storm's current slow forward motion somewhat a result of it being sheered? Perhaps it is. How quickly that shear might let up, or whether under less hostile upper level conditions Florence might progress westward at a faster clip I'm not sure but I think it would. It just seems to me that it just comes down to timing and when 500mb heights in the far W. Atlantic are expanding or being eroded over that period of 2 to 3 days. By itself, I just don't necessarily believe that a strong Florence by herself would automatically result in a well entrenched strong blocking ridge to weaken unless a weakness in the higher latitude flow also contributed to the erosion of that high pressure ridge.

[Evenstar]

I am sticking with the Atlantic Beach/Morehead City/Ocracoke landfall.

Amazing area of NC, I hope I'm incorrect.

As someone who lives in the VA Tidewater region, I hope you are incorrect too.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: Then Flo is already at a lower latitude than any model has gone...

Track implcations?

Could be something, could be nothing. Chaos theory. Throw a small stone in a pond and it can make a large ripple for a long ways. Just like placing a rock in a stream can divert an entire flow of water, but you don't know which way it will flow.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's Levi Cowan's video discussion on Florence. I absolutely love his videos btw. They're definitely worth watching if you have any interest in the storm.

I timestamped to when he talks about Florence. Since there's a ton of other tropical weather going on currently

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GguFxZz4WmE&t=7m34s

[SFLcane]

Wow I leave for a few hrs and I smell a naked swirl alert coming. Aric so far you have been spot on enjoy your posts

[floridasun78]

big key do get more weaker and do high keep coving from coast to few Atlantic that will tell us more likely by Sunday or Monday

[tolakram]

COD shortwave loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-07-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Blown Away]

[Ken711]

Here's Levi Cowan's video discussion on Florence. I absolutely love his videos btw. They're definitely worth watching if you have any interest in the storm.

I timestamped to when he talks about Florence. Since there's a ton of other tropical weather going on currently

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GguFxZz4WmE&t=7m34s

One great point that Levi makes is no matter where it landfalls, the impacts as it moves inland and north will cover a wide area in addition to just the landfall location. This could be a very costly hurricane for sure.