ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

local met here just tweeted that 9 should be Isaac by tomorrow morning, and could be a possible Cat 2 by the time it gets to the Islands.

That is the 11 PM forecast.

120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

Oh boy, each forecast, the intensity is getting stronger and stronger?!, is that a joke Luis or my eyes are deceiving me?

I never joke with these advisories.Is true the 85 kts or 100 mph on day 5.

[msbee]

That is the 11 PM forecast.

120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

Oh boy, each forecast, the intensity is getting stronger and stronger?!, is that a joke Luis or my eyes are deceiving me?

I never joke with these advisories.Is true the 85 kts or 100 mph on day 5.

No joking matter for sure. This is getting scary for the islands

[Gustywind]

That is the 11 PM forecast.

120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

Oh boy, each forecast, the intensity is getting stronger and stronger?!, is that a joke Luis or my eyes are deceiving me?

I never joke with these advisories.Is true the 85 kts or 100 mph on day 5.

That's why i appreciate you my friend! I feel very sick with that day 5!

Waouw i cannot imagine what my eyes are seeing on this advisory as you too And the forecast is not even entirely close to 60 W, so we can quickly "extrapolate" that conditions between 55 W and 60 might be always conducive?! Very intriguish... something to keep a close eye on. We will see.

[Gustywind]

Oh boy, each forecast, the intensity is getting stronger and stronger?!, is that a joke Luis or my eyes are deceiving me?

I never joke with these advisories.Is true the 85 kts or 100 mph on day 5.

No joking matter for sure. This is getting scary for the islands

Yes Barbara, so that's is very worrying already...

[Hurricaneman]

I never joke with these advisories.Is true the 85 kts or 100 mph on day 5.

No joking matter for sure. This is getting scary for the islands

Yes Barbara, so that's is very worrying already...

In case you should prepare for a major, best to be prepared and hope for less strengthening

[msbee]

No joking matter for sure. This is getting scary for the islands

Yes Barbara, so that's is very worrying already...

In case you should prepare for a major, best to be prepared and hope for less strengthening

We are always prepared. We have to be.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well it seemed only a week ago we were all saying great looking at a slow season. Everyone in then islands stay safe. But it's always a concern when u have a storm go through the Islands, you always get concerned here in S. FLA, so I will be paying attention to what happens next week.

[jasons2k]

This one is far enough south that it is a real threat for the islands. The fact that the NHC is forecasting strengthening instead of a steady state or weakening is concerning, this far away.This could be a problem for both the islands and then then the US. Keep a watch, stay prepared, and be safe, my friends.

[HurricaneRyan]

Welp, this will probably be another dangerous I storm now. If mother nature is going to produce a bad hurricane, fine, but the letter I has suffered enough abuse by this point.

[Cyclenall]

What really has my attention with 9L is its likely to be a mid-Sept Caribbean cruiser. I don't know the last time aside from the obvious other I storm from 2004 that did this. IIRC Felix of 2007 was a bit earlier this month and formed near the east Caribbean and Karl was mainly confined to the BOC in 2010. Its rare to get a TC with a track like that in mid-Sept so a new learning experience perhaps on the way?

This has probably been brought up but in addition to having a major US coastline threat, a threat entering the east Caribbean at once is drawing no previous examples. Its happened before but its so rare I can't think of any other instances.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The depression continues to be affected by moderate to strong east
to southeasterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in the
bulk of the deep convection being displaced to the west of the
low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt
based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
both TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the
past 12-18 h due to being caught in a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. However, recent microwave satellite data suggest that the
cyclone is now moving slowly northwestward. A turn toward the west
is expected to occur later today as a shortwave trough to the north
that has weakened the ridge lifts out, allowing the ridge to fill
back in and build westward to the north of the Lesser Antilles. The
latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed, and the
official forecast track lies down the middle of the envelope near a
blend of the consensus aids TCVA, HCCA, FSSE.

Although the wind shear is forecast to gradually weaken and become
less than 5 kt by 36-48 h, which would favor rapid strengthening,
the airmass that the cyclone is embedded is fairly dry. Since
mid-level humidity values are forecast to decrease from the current
60-percent range down to around 50 percent by 48 hours and beyond,
only modest strengthening is expected during the next 4 days. By day
5, vertical wind shear from the southwest is forecast to increase to
20-25 kt, serving to cap the intensification process. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA
consensus models, and continues to remain below the stronger HWRF
model at days 4 and 5, which makes the cyclone a major hurricane in
78 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.3N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

08/0545 UTC 14.0N 35.2W T2.0/2.0 09L
08/0000 UTC 13.9N 35.0W T1.5/1.5 09L

[Nimbus]

Still waiting for the 06z HWRF, but it appears GFS is going to be too weak with a track through the Caribbean further south of the islands than the HWRF.

HWRF is a little weaker and further south initially this run but will still likely bring a hurricane very close to the islands same as yesterday.

[NDG]

Getting better organized, the LLC is closer to the convection this morning, still some easterly shear but that's because is not moving much. Once it starts moving easterly shear should not be a problem.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD...
08/1145 UTC 14.1N 35.5W T2.0/2.0 09L
08/0545 UTC 14.0N 35.2W T2.0/2.0 09L

[abajan]

The NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks, but it's worth noting there's still a chance it recurves harmlessly out to sea, as explained in this excellent update by Levi Cowan. Nothing written in stone right now.

[cycloneye]

The NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks, but it's worth noting there's still a chance it recurves harmlessly out to sea, as explained in this excellent update by Levi Cowan. Nothing written in stone right now.

Levi is very good in his discussions as he goes to the point in a simple way that the public can understand.Yes,is still early to say for sure it will affect the Lesser Antilles but preparations have to be made in case it makes it to the islands.

[plasticup]

This NHC product really sums up the state of the Atlantic right now:

[SoupBone]

Something to consider this morning. Both the Euro and the GFS have it coming across the islands weak and then buries it into Honduras/ Nicaragua. Let's hope this begins a trend. It's very weak for the islands and the US mainland would miss it altogether.

[Buck]

Something to consider this morning. Both the Euro and the GFS have it coming across the islands weak and then buries it into Honduras/ Nicaragua. Let's hope this begins a trend. It's very weak for the islands and the US mainland would miss it altogether.

Maybe this wasn't your intention, but I wouldn't ever wish a storm on Central America over the US.