ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1881 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization


The amount is probably negligible...let’s see how it plays out. So far through 42 hours it’s almost the same as 18z...maybe a hair slower.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1882 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:46 pm

00z GFS... Slightly E of 18z at 48 hrs... Ridging seems stronger...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1883 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:47 pm

00z ICON brushes the NC coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1884 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:48 pm

To be honest I don’t think it’s as important to look at Flo’s forecast on the model as it is to look at how the ridge evolves and is oriented. That’s what I’m watching for.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1885 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:49 pm

00z GFS... Slightly E of 18z at 60 hrs... Still west movement...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1886 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:50 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... Slightly E of 18z at 48 hrs... Ridging seems stronger...
east high or storm? look few new frame of gfs moving due west still
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1887 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:51 pm

That ridge does look even stronger...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1888 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:51 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:00z ICON brushes the NC coast.


Hopefully the start of the long awaited NE trend. That is NE of 12z.

Ridge looks weaker on 0z GFS run at 72 hours. More weaknesses on both sides of the high.
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1889 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:53 pm

00z GFS... Slightly E of 18z at 72 hrs... Still just N of due west movement... Ridge axis tilted compared to 18z to keep more W to WNW
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1890 Postby Ken711 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:53 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:00z ICON brushes the NC coast.


That would be great if did a Matthew and stayed offshore.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1891 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:54 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:00z ICON brushes the NC coast.


Hopefully the start of the long awaited NE trend. That is NE of 12z.


I’m not sure how good the icon is but it looks like it orients the ridge a little differently and weaker thus allowing a sharp north turn at the last second. Otherwise up to that point it was very similar to other models it seemed.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1892 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:54 pm

last frame of gfs look facing east of northern Bahamas hope for best move alway from all but long shot
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1893 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:56 pm

00z GFS... SE of 18z at 84 hrs... Ridge stronger and pushing S...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1894 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... SE of 18z at 84 hrs... Ridge stronger and pushing S...


It’s definitely stout...the key timeframe is coming up 100 to 130 hours she should start climbing.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1895 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 pm

Ridge is weaker than 18Z but maybe it’s just me.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1896 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... SE of 18z at 84 hrs... Ridge stronger and pushing S...


Ridge looks weaker to me.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1897 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:57 pm

84hrs


Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1898 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:58 pm

Image
Ridge stronger through 84...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1899 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:00 pm

That ridge is stronger through 90hrs...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1900 Postby Ken711 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:00 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... SE of 18z at 84 hrs... Ridge stronger and pushing S...


Ridge looks weaker to me.


Start of a north and east trend I hope.
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