ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

You’re comparing that to yesterday’s 00z run. Hard to do the trends with the Euro.

[chaser1]

Man it is good to see Mike Watkins back!

It's good to see so many peeps from the old days still here. I spend most days these days building predictive models for business stuff, so by the time I get home I'm either messing around with model features or avoiding the computer entirely. But, this tropical stuff is why I get to do modeling for a living, because the tropics are way harder to model than a typical business trend. It's been - yikes - almost 16 years since I registered.

Even this year - with zero activity in August and forecasts of an inactive season, who would have even thought, let alone say out loud, that we could have a system at 25/55 being seriously considered for a SE US landfall? Where did all of the easterly trade winds go?

Now the displaced warm oceanic heat content and SST's are working against us - because that's going to be, at least probably, feeding the ridging and Florence.

Mike

To that logic and in spite of the storms present latitude, what is to say that the same oceanic heat content which also exists in the GOM might suggest an even larger ridge extending well into the Central Gulf??

[meriland29]

Ridge is actually weaker at 72 hrs

It doesn't look weaker to me..it looks shifted north

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously though if the land based soundings tomorrow show even slightly more ridging . the models are going to Drive FLO straight west for a long time,,,

[AtlanticWind]

FV3 GFS into South carolina

[bamajammer4eva]

Ridge is actually weaker at 72 hrs

[img]https://i.imgur.com/zTgzGMK.gif?1

It doesn't look weaker to me..it looks shifted north

Yes I see that now-got up from computer and came back and from far away can see it just shifted-wishful thinking eh?

[SouthFLTropics]

FV3 finished running with a significant SW shift...landfall, South Carolina.

[MWatkins]

FV3 finished running with a significant SW shift...landfall, South Carolina.

[Thumbs Down Icon]

Quoting Doc Brown "FV3 has gone from no landfall to NC to SC in 3 runs. Imagine where it will go tomorrow."

Euro slower but further south in 5 days. No real good news for anyone along the east coast tonight...

MW

[TheDreamTraveler]

Landfall looks identical to the 12z euro

[Aric Dunn]

slight bend back to the west at 144 hours on the euro heading to CHarleston. no good.
no budge in the ridging

problem is.. I still think the models are under doing the ridging..

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like Florence into Florence on the 0zEuro

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro with SC landfall.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro scores 2 runs in a row on South Carolina.

[Hurricaneman]

Landfall looks identical to the 12 euro

Actually it’s 20 miles SW at landfall this run, last run was North/South Carolina border

[SouthFLTropics]

slight bend back to the west at 144 hours on the euro heading to CHarleston. no good.
no budge in the ridging

problem is.. I still think the models are under doing the ridging..

I’m afraid we will see more SW shifts tomorrow with the balloon data ingested. Florence has my attention in South Central Florida.

[Hurricaneman]

slight bend back to the west at 144 hours on the euro heading to CHarleston. no good.
no budge in the ridging

problem is.. I still think the models are under doing the ridging..

I’m afraid we will see more SW shifts tomorrow with the balloon data ingested. Florence has my attention in South Central Florida.

It certainly has mine in Clermont Florida

[TheDreamTraveler]

Landfall looks identical to the 12 euro

Actually it’s 20 miles SW at landfall this run, last run was North/South Carolina border

That's actually very good consistency for the Euro now. We'll have to see if it starts swaying back and forth. But it's way more consistent than its been. We're almost 5-6 days away from landfall so some models will start showing more consistency as we get closer. Euro is actually pretty good 5 days out. Obviously it can change but it seems like the changes won't be as big or abrupt. I still wouldn't rule out north carolina Georgia or Florida either though.

[TheProfessor]

Wow the FV3 hits SC then goes back out to sea takes a SW dip into Florida then heads back up northeast just off the coast while strengthening

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow the FV3 hits SC then goes back out to sea takes a SW dip into Florida then heads back up just off the coast while strengthening

The GFS never fails on the entertainment factor.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Up to hour 192 euro has Florence inland and slowly moving yet again. If that verifies a lot of spots are going to receive a ton of rain until it gets kicked out by the trough.