ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

This mornings visible RGB loop is stunning. The outflow to the North and NW is amazing. Still looks to be moving around 260 or 265...just a tick south of due west.

Looks like it's weakening again now.

[Ken711]

It appears to me to be picking up some forward speed. Bears watching because that fantasy (IMO) path shown on some models based on a weaking ridge (!) shows slow motion for a few days as the ridge diminishes.

Which fantasy path model run are you referring to, the GFS?

[Slughitter3]

This mornings visible RGB loop is stunning. The outflow to the North and NW is amazing. Still looks to be moving around 260 or 265...just a tick south of due west.

Looks like it's weakening again now.

I agree, took in a big gulp of dry air, it's working on spitting it back out right now and rebuilding it's Core.

[Nimbus]

Latest GFS run didn't make landfall so theoretically there is still hope.
Get supplies early but once we have landfall forecast inside the 3 day window thats when I would start to board up.

[GeneratorPower]

regardless of 4 or 5, all residents from jax to the sc/nc line better start preparing this weekend for a 3+, start your generator today and makes sure its a go, amazes me before a hurricane the number of people that own a generator but it doesnt start, duh

I agree. People should basically prepare right at the beginning of the season for the most part. I have a generator, but have never had to use it. That is a HUGE advantage to being on the same grid as a fire station. Very QUICK to get power restored!

I am an electrical engineer who deals with grid issues and generators every day. I can assure you that being near a fire station means exactly nothing. People love to say they’re on a “hospital grid” or whatever. It’s usually something a real estate agent made up to help sell houses or that some idiot made up as an excuse to not get prepared. You can have a fire station next door and you yourself be without power for weeks.

Human beings have a “normalcy bias”. Look it up, it’s fascinating. Basically it means that humans will lie to themselves in order to feel like they are safe and that everything will stay as it normally is. When I was growing up near Daytona Beach my dad assured me that because we were 15 miles inland, hurricanes would dissipate before they reached our home and thus we didn’t need shutters.

I had a real estate agent show me a commercial building one time. I asked if there were shutters for the large windows, or impact glass. He stopped, pointed to a grove of pine trees nearby and said “see those trees? They act as a natural windbreak. You won’t need shutters here.”

All of that advice is bunk. People need window protection and a generator and also batteries and other supplies in case the generator fails. And training in safe use of a generator.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave presentation is much, much better this morning.

[Kazmit]

Wow, she looks like a completely different storm this morning.

[Ian2401]

Still rapidly losing latitude based on satellite

[robbielyn]

Just a friendly reminder. Generators cause many deaths due to carbon monoxide poisoning so run it outdoors not in a garage or poorly ventilated place.

[p1nheadlarry]

I hope I did this image this image thing right, anywho. She's taken in a little bit of dry air at the lower levels this morning. Strictly an observation, I just enjoy this stuff, no real education over here just a hobby. We'll see how long it takes her to cough it up.

Image from weather.cod.edu SAT Viewer.

Still an improvement in appearance from yesterday

[jlauderdal]

Just a friendly reminder. Generators cause many deaths due to carbon monoxide poisoning so run it outdoors not in a garage or poorly ventilated place.

excellent point...dont put it in your garage, i know its raining you don't have power but don't do it, don't put it by your windows or right by your neighbors windows and get a carbon monoxide detector today...go to the store or amazon prime..we used to have a poster on here generatorpower, hopefully he is still around, he is the guy for all things generators, i dm'd him once and he responded right away

get you and your family earplugs, if you dont have a loud generator, your neighbor probably does...good sleep makes power outages much easier to tolerate

[Hurricane Andrew]

I hope I did this image this image thing right, anywho. She's taken in a little bit of dry air at the lower levels this morning. Strictly an observation, I just enjoy this stuff, no real education over here just a hobby. We'll see how long it takes her to cough it up.

Image from weather.cod.edu SAT Viewer.

Still an improvement in appearance from yesterday

Yesterday's models showed the dry air...they also showed it mixing out by later today. Look at the structure; this thing is almost all systems go.

[drewschmaltz]

regardless of 4 or 5, all residents from jax to the sc/nc line better start preparing this weekend for a 3+, start your generator today and makes sure its a go, amazes me before a hurricane the number of people that own a generator but it doesnt start, duh

I agree. People should basically prepare right at the beginning of the season for the most part. I have a generator, but have never had to use it. That is a HUGE advantage to being on the same grid as a fire station. Very QUICK to get power restored!

I am an electrical engineer who deals with grid issues and generators every day. I can assure you that being near a fire station means exactly nothing. People love to say they’re on a “hospital grid” or whatever. It’s usually something a real estate agent made up to help sell houses or that some idiot made up as an excuse to not get prepared.

To be fair, the OP said "on the same grid" and not "next to". Plus, this article says that officials are stating that living in the grid could be beneficial.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tcpalm.com/amp/91635416

Normalcy bias is indeed interesting but I fear that misinformation or properly contexted information may be the simple issue here...

[jlauderdal]

Just a friendly reminder. Generators cause many deaths due to carbon monoxide poisoning so run it outdoors not in a garage or poorly ventilated place.

excellent point...dont put it in your garage, i know its raining you don't have power but don't do it, don't put it by your windows or right by your neighbors windows and get a carbon monoxide detector today...go to the store or amazon prime..we used to have a poster on here generatorpower, hopefully he is still around, he is the guy for all things generators, i dm'd him once and he responded right away

get you and your family earplugs, if you dont have a loud generator, your neighbor probably does...good sleep makes power outages much easier to tolerate

generatorpower has appeared on the board, good to have an expert

[marionstorm]

regardless of 4 or 5, all residents from jax to the sc/nc line better start preparing this weekend for a 3+, start your generator today and makes sure its a go, amazes me before a hurricane the number of people that own a generator but it doesnt start, duh

I agree. People should basically prepare right at the beginning of the season for the most part. I have a generator, but have never had to use it. That is a HUGE advantage to being on the same grid as a fire station. Very QUICK to get power restored!

I am an electrical engineer who deals with grid issues and generators every day. I can assure you that being near a fire station means exactly nothing. People love to say they’re on a “hospital grid” or whatever. It’s usually something a real estate agent made up to help sell houses or that some idiot made up as an excuse to not get prepared. You can have a fire station next door and you yourself be without power for weeks.

Human beings have a “normalcy bias”. Look it up, it’s fascinating. Basically it means that humans will lie to themselves in order to feel like they are safe and that everything will stay as it normally is. When I was growing up near Daytona Beach my dad assured me that because we were 15 miles inland, hurricanes would dissipate before they reached our home and thus we didn’t need shutters.

I had a real estate agent show me a commercial building one time. I asked if there were shutters for the large windows, or impact glass. He stopped, pointed to a grove of pine trees nearby and said “see those trees? They act as a natural windbreak. You won’t need shutters here.”

All of that advice is bunk. People need window protection and a generator and also batteries and other supplies in case the generator fails. And training in safe use of a generator.

Someone is jealous they aren't on the fire station grid or have a nice line of wind breaking trees.

https://twitter.com/USCPSC/status/1038245594970681346

Don't worry too much guys Copernicus Jackson is going to swoop in and tell Florence what is up any days now.

[NDG]

Great outflow this morning, it is indeed getting better organized this morning.

[jlauderdal]

I agree. People should basically prepare right at the beginning of the season for the most part. I have a generator, but have never had to use it. That is a HUGE advantage to being on the same grid as a fire station. Very QUICK to get power restored!

I am an electrical engineer who deals with grid issues and generators every day. I can assure you that being near a fire station means exactly nothing. People love to say they’re on a “hospital grid” or whatever. It’s usually something a real estate agent made up to help sell houses or that some idiot made up as an excuse to not get prepared. You can have a fire station next door and you yourself be without power for weeks.

Human beings have a “normalcy bias”. Look it up, it’s fascinating. Basically it means that humans will lie to themselves in order to feel like they are safe and that everything will stay as it normally is. When I was growing up near Daytona Beach my dad assured me that because we were 15 miles inland, hurricanes would dissipate before they reached our home and thus we didn’t need shutters.

I had a real estate agent show me a commercial building one time. I asked if there were shutters for the large windows, or impact glass. He stopped, pointed to a grove of pine trees nearby and said “see those trees? They act as a natural windbreak. You won’t need shutters here.”

All of that advice is bunk. People need window protection and a generator and also batteries and other supplies in case the generator fails. And training in safe use of a generator.

Someone is jealous they aren't on the fire station grid or have a nice line of wind breaking trees.

i will take the generator, the shutters, the roof straps..you folks can have the trees

[drewschmaltz]

i will take the generator, the shutters, the roof straps..you folks can have the trees

Well, us and NASA

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120016523.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiy6-GLsKvdAhVG7FMKHQhjBr0QFjALegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw2Cb3Sj5qngnjNP5Hwz35JN

[AJC3]

As a reminder...you can always start a thread in here...

viewforum.php?f=30

[lando]

regardless of 4 or 5, all residents from jax to the sc/nc line better start preparing this weekend for a 3+, start your generator today and makes sure its a go, amazes me before a hurricane the number of people that own a generator but it doesnt start, duh

I agree. People should basically prepare right at the beginning of the season for the most part. I have a generator, but have never had to use it. That is a HUGE advantage to being on the same grid as a fire station. Very QUICK to get power restored!

I am an electrical engineer who deals with grid issues and generators every day. I can assure you that being near a fire station means exactly nothing. People love to say they’re on a “hospital grid” or whatever. It’s usually something a real estate agent made up to help sell houses or that some idiot made up as an excuse to not get prepared. You can have a fire station next door and you yourself be without power for weeks.

Human beings have a “normalcy bias”. Look it up, it’s fascinating. Basically it means that humans will lie to themselves in order to feel like they are safe and that everything will stay as it normally is. When I was growing up near Daytona Beach my dad assured me that because we were 15 miles inland, hurricanes would dissipate before they reached our home and thus we didn’t need shutters.

I had a real estate agent show me a commercial building one time. I asked if there were shutters for the large windows, or impact glass. He stopped, pointed to a grove of pine trees nearby and said “see those trees? They act as a natural windbreak. You won’t need shutters here.”

All of that advice is bunk. People need window protection and a generator and also batteries and other supplies in case the generator fails. And training in safe use of a generator.

While I think your correct, I can say I lived two houses down from a high ranking FPL (largest public utility in FL) official and our power was restored faster than most in my neighborhood