ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Latest Archer algo analysis.
X is forecast track.

http://i68.tinypic.com/11lokmw.png

Archer "who"?? Context please

Archer, as in ARCHER storm positioning by UW-CIMSS.

[GCANE]

Many of you might remember me from chasing every major hurricane since the 90's.

Along with the normal preps I can't stress enough the importance of having a LOT of extra gasoline/diesel to bail if needed.

For Irma you couldn't get a gallon of gasoline/diesel anywhere in the state of Florida and I saw literally thousands of stranded cars at gas stations waiting for the tanker truck to arrive (which didn't happen in time).

It's always a sight to see tens of thousands of cars parked on the freeways as I'm heading in. No extra gas, water, food, diapers, etc.

My observations over the past 25 years of chasing are that it's best to leave 2 days early or wait until 12 hours before the strike with plenty of fuel. Again that is what I would do and is not a recommendation to anyone else. Just an observation.

Will be leaving Houston Tuesday morning.

Stay safe Rail Dawg, I know you will.
As always, looking forward to your reports.

[GCANE]

Latest Archer algo analysis.
X is forecast track.

Archer "who"?? Context please

Archer, as in ARCHER storm positioning by UW-CIMSS.

Yes

[chaser1]

Latest Archer algo analysis.
X is forecast track.

http://i68.tinypic.com/11lokmw.png

Archer "who"?? Context please

Archer, as in ARCHER storm positioning by UW-CIMSS.

Thank you but that still doesn't explain it's use, comparison, accuracy relative to the more common modeling tools I and most others on this forum are more familier with. Am just asking if someone could briefly explain anything about it's use and strengths as a tool worth my (or any of us) being better acquainted with.

[SouthDadeFish]

Inner-core looks very good. I'm lazy so I will share my Tweet below:

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1038434654272020480

[tarheelprogrammer]

Inner-core looks very good. I'm lazy so I will share my Tweet below:

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1038434654272020480

Which could pull it pole-ward sooner, correct?

[storm4u]

Storms firing around the center.. I think its go time

[GCANE]

Archer "who"?? Context please

Archer, as in ARCHER storm positioning by UW-CIMSS.

Thank you but that still doesn't explain it's use, comparison, accuracy relative to the more common modeling tools I and most others on this forum are more familier with. Am just asking if someone could briefly explain anything about it's use and strengths as a tool worth my (or any of us) being better acquainted with.

Here are some links, hope it helps


https://groups.ssec.wisc.edu/groups/arc ... escription
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ndex.shtml
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... o_06L.html

[plasticup]

Plane is in the western periphery. Should start getting good data any minute now.

[GCANE]

Good view of WINDSAT

[plasticup]

Storms firing around the center.. I think its go time

And just in time for recon to arrive

[GCANE]

Oceanic Heat Content.
A major factor in determining TC strength.
Starting to be more conducive in the next 24 hours and all the way to the coast.
Gulf Steam is locked and loaded.

[Hurricaneman]

Storms firing around the center.. I think its go time

And just in time for recon to arrive

It’s not a storm sampling recon, it is a recon to check the upper air around Florence. The recon for Florence itself I can’t remember if it’s sunday or monday

[Ian2401]

Storms firing around the center.. I think its go time

And just in time for recon to arrive

It’s not a storm sampling recon, it is a recon to check the upper air around Florence. The recon for Florence itself I can’t remember if it’s sunday or monday

I think i read somewhere on wxtwitter that low level recon is starting Monday, could be wrong though

[GCANE]

Storms firing around the center.. I think its go time

And just in time for recon to arrive

It’s not a storm sampling recon, it is a recon to check the upper air around Florence. The recon for Florence itself I can’t remember if it’s sunday or monday

Monday 1130Z

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

And just in time for recon to arrive

It’s not a storm sampling recon, it is a recon to check the upper air around Florence. The recon for Florence itself I can’t remember if it’s sunday or monday

Monday 1130Z

Sorry, just checked
Fixes begin Monday 2330Z.
A couple synoptic missions tomorrow with a Gulfstream IV

[chaser1]

Archer, as in ARCHER storm positioning by UW-CIMSS.

Thank you but that still doesn't explain it's use, comparison, accuracy relative to the more common modeling tools I and most others on this forum are more familier with. Am just asking if someone could briefly explain anything about it's use and strengths as a tool worth my (or any of us) being better acquainted with.

Here are some links, hope it helps


https://groups.ssec.wisc.edu/groups/arc ... escription
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ndex.shtml
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... o_06L.html

Yes. thank you. Looks to be more of a rapid re-analysis of "past to current" track accuracy for purpose of producing a more finite solution especially applied in context to a more accurate and proper initialization (obviously key for each set of updated models runs). At first I assumed it was itself some short or medium range model run.

[mrbagyo]

Florence is losing latitude at the same time munching in dry air

[floridasun78]

stil moving west alone 24 line not gone up