ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Ken711
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2161 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:06 am

Blown Away wrote:
storm4u wrote:Exact the same spot at hr 102


May miss E again...


I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2162 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:06 am

Image
GFS trend is E over past few runs near NC...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2163 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:07 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is bound and determined to turn this North.

I see no path north, the GFS is up to its old tricks breaking down ridges too soon, if the other models shift south then it may mean the GFS is trash
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2164 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:07 am

This is a good sign people. The GFS may be seeing something the others are not. Let us see what the others do now. GO NE!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2165 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:07 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
GFS trend is E over past few runs near NC...


Weaker ridge or not as set up as far west?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2166 Postby MrJames » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:08 am

GFS is slightly East at 120hrs.

Anyone have the 12Z UKMet coordinates?
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MacTavish

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2167 Postby MacTavish » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:08 am

12z cmc trending north too
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2168 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:This is a good sign people. The GFS may be seeing something the others are not. Let us see what the others do now. GO NE!


I'm thinking the Euro will as well with the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2169 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 am

So, two models are now north. When does the UKMET come out?

Edit: I wonder what took the models so long to trend NE. It happens almost every time with SE threats. Likely to continue till this is OTS, and I would welcome it once again. No need to evac if that happens :D
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2170 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 am

If that's not called plowing into a ridge, I don't know what to say.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2171 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 am

Wow looks a bit east of the 06z GFS at 126hrs. GFS looks to hold serve starting to wonder if this is a trend. 12z ICON also shifted east to a recurve.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2172 Postby kevin mathis » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 am

Ken711 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
storm4u wrote:Exact the same spot at hr 102


May miss E again...


I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.

Based on???
NHC just stated there is forecast to be a strong blocking high developing north of storm...Yet GFS plows through it. Every model forcing a SW shift every run and GFS starting a trend???
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2173 Postby tallywx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 am

Swing and a miss. Wow.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2174 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 am

Ken711 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
storm4u wrote:Exact the same spot at hr 102


May miss E again...


I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.


The NHC basically disregarded this solution in the 11 AM disco
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2175 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:12 am

Icon. Gfs and Canadian all trending. North
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2176 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:13 am

Image
GFS trend @132 hrs... East bound... Probably unrealistic loop coming, but maybe trap door opening...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2177 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:13 am

kevin mathis wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
May miss E again...


I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.

Based on???
NHC just stated there is forecast to be a strong blocking high developing north of storm...Yet GFS plows through it. Every model forcing a SW shift every run and GFS starting a trend???


Perhaps the setup of the blocking high is farther east allowing for a steering around the periphery?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2178 Postby hohnywx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:13 am

kevin mathis wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
May miss E again...


I'm betting the other models will start to pick up on a north and east trend.

Based on???
NHC just stated there is forecast to be a strong blocking high developing north of storm...Yet GFS plows through it. Every model forcing a SW shift every run and GFS starting a trend???


Seems to be a bit of wishful thinking going on here. The GFS is not the best model for the tropics. Let’s just wait for the entire 12z suite to play out.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2179 Postby MJGarrison » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:13 am

MacTavish wrote:12z cmc trending north too

The CMC may be a bit north but the ridge is also filled in a tad left at 72hours.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2180 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:14 am

storm4u wrote:Icon. Gfs and Canadian all trending. North

Could be the North American models vs The models from europe
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