ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

I’ve seen a couple comments about balloon data helping. We already have ballon data right? We’re just getting more frequent balloon data?


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This is correct. I am skeptical the extra balloon launches will result in dramatic shifts in the forecasts. The main difference will be the additional observations from the surveillance missions in the immediate environment around Florence over the coming days. The drops from the NOAA flight today should also help.

[drewschmaltz]

I'm still projecting Savannah to be where Flo will make landfall, however, having said that..... the risk of Florence striking Florida is likely greater now then at any point during the last few days.

I’m pretty new to this, so this might be a dumb question, but could you explain why?

I'll take a stab:

Savannah: because based on the most reliable models, this is well with the realm of possibilities and if the ridging or reaction to the ridging is underdone in some way, a track a little south of the models is as good as any.

Florida: It's currently at it's most southern point (24.5), not gaining latitude, and still moving west. If Flo speeds up, slows down, drifts west for longer, or the ridge comes in lower (there was that finger from this morning runs on just one frame), Florida can be in play.

[SouthDadeFish]

So Euro and GFS went a little north...why did HWRF go south

It might be because the HWRF is an intensity model first. So it might not have as good of a handle as the globals.

I don't think we should be talking about models in this thread, but I wouldn't say the above comment is correct. The HWRF is a dynamical numerical model. It is not necessarily an intensity model first. It solves the equations of motion using the state variables of the atmosphere, like the other dynamical guidance.

[plasticup]

So can Fl consider itself safe now?

Absolutely not. The models are not a reliable way to project a course - you should only trust the NHC on that. And they don't even waste their time trying to guess what will happen beyond 5 day. Florida is very much a possibility. So is Delaware or Houston. Far too soon to tell.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So Euro and GFS went a little north...why did HWRF go south

It might be because the HWRF is an intensity model first. So it might not have as good of a handle as the globals.

I don't think we should be talking about models in this thread, but I wouldn't say the above comment is correct. The HWRF is a dynamical numerical model. It is not necessarily an intensity model first. It solves the equations of motion using the state variables of the atmosphere, like the other dynamical guidance.

Yeah it was probably premature for me to say that it was an intensity model first. Thanks for the input. Though the mods do want us talking about most things in here and only posting model graphics in the model thread from what we were told yesterday lol they were getting mad that we were discussing model stuff and not posting any graphics since when people go back to look at the thread in the future they'll have a hard time sifting through all the conversation to find the actual model graphics.

[wxman57]

Definite trend "right" in the models. Many ensemble models (1/3 of EC) now turn Florence as it nears the OB. No guarantee of a landfall.

[sunnyday]

Bobharlem,
Thank you for that link and pic. Wow! Scary!

[DestinHurricane]

So can Fl consider itself safe now?

Absolutely not. The models are not a reliable way to project a course - you should only trust the NHC on that. And they don't even waste their time trying to guess what will happen beyond 5 day. Florida is very much a possibility. So is Delaware or Houston. Far too soon to tell.

Houston?

[Blown Away]

Flo still S and moving faster than forecast track in short term...

[floridasun78]

have FLORENCE above 24 line????? i cannot tell by sat pic look still below 24 linr

[HurricaneEric]

have FLORENCE above 24 line????? i cannot tell by sat pic look still below 24 linr

I don’t think it’s ever been below 24N the last couple days. Has been between 24-25N.

[Blown Away]

have FLORENCE above 24 line????? i cannot tell by sat pic look still below 24 linr

Solid line to N is 25... Dash line below is 24N, needed to zoom to see info.

[plasticup]

So can Fl consider itself safe now?

Absolutely not. The models are not a reliable way to project a course - you should only trust the NHC on that. And they don't even waste their time trying to guess what will happen beyond 5 day. Florida is very much a possibility. So is Delaware or Houston. Far too soon to tell.

Houston?

One of the ECMWF members put it in the gulf. On that timescale the models are as accurate as a dartboard.

[gatorcane]

Definite trend "right" in the models. Many ensemble models (1/3 of EC) now turn Florence as it nears the OB. No guarantee of a landfall.

Yep and a good cluster of GFS ensembles don’t make landfall now also. Just need another shift or two east to build some more confidence. Carolinas appear to be in the cross-hairs if it landfalls though.

[MJGarrison]

I think we should be paying more attention to the FV3-GFS. This time next year when we are watching the GFS, the FV3 is what we will or watching. I don’t know a ton about weather modeling, but I know software engineering, and I wouldn’t expect too many software changes between now and deployment.


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[chaser1]

Sorry. I asked b c the models are concentrating on nc and s c now.

It's a totally fair question to ask especially seeing how focused the models have become on that region. To be sure though, when the typically conservative NHC says "all interests from Florida to the Carolina's need pay attention", that pretty much does say it all. Furthermore and as a general rule of thumb, those of us in Florida should never assume they're out of harm's way until that particular storm is well to the north of your latitude. Even then, there's been rare cases where a storm has looped back and struck the state as well.

[chaser1]

I’ve seen a couple comments about balloon data helping. We already have ballon data right? We’re just getting more frequent balloon data?


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This is correct. I am skeptical the extra balloon launches will result in dramatic shifts in the forecasts. The main difference will be the additional observations from the surveillance missions in the immediate environment around Florence over the coming days. The drops from the NOAA flight today should also help.

Do you think most of the newly acquired data will be ingested quick enough to impact 18Z model runs? I was assuming that would likely not occur until perhaps the 0Z runs this evening.

[Nimbus]

Latest burst of convection is a little to the NW of where the low level center was earlier.
With the lack of low level steering maybe Florence will try to recenter under the convection?

[Blinhart]

So can Fl consider itself safe now?

Absolutely not. The models are not a reliable way to project a course - you should only trust the NHC on that. And they don't even waste their time trying to guess what will happen beyond 5 day. Florida is very much a possibility. So is Delaware or Houston. Far too soon to tell.

Houston?

I wouldn't be shocked by it.

[MJGarrison]

I’ve seen a couple comments about balloon data helping. We already have ballon data right? We’re just getting more frequent balloon data?


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This is correct. I am skeptical the extra balloon launches will result in dramatic shifts in the forecasts. The main difference will be the additional observations from the surveillance missions in the immediate environment around Florence over the coming days. The drops from the NOAA flight today should also help.

Do you think most of the newly acquired data will be ingested quick enough to impact 18Z model runs? I was assuming that would likely not occur until perhaps the 0Z runs this evening.

Someone correct me, but I believe balloons are released at 0Z and 12Z? Now we get 2 more balloons per day at 6Z and 18Z? So they would be used in those models.


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