00z Tropical models suite=A change to the north

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cycloneye
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00z Tropical models suite=A change to the north

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2003 7:55 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03101400

At this run the models except the A-98-E are going north now so that is a big change from the 18z run.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 13, 2003 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Ola » Mon Oct 13, 2003 8:20 pm

well, when the steering currents are weak, as in this case, the models will change a lot with each run. It will probablly recurve but, it might not. You always hear that statement with every system, but with weak steering currents it is more true. It would not surprise me if it started to turn north in 12 hours or if it stayed moving west for 72 hours.
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#3 Postby Ola » Mon Oct 13, 2003 8:28 pm

Wow, BTW, I just noticed, the models dont just have it going north, they have it making a U turn actually around 45 west, notice after 96 hours, they have it going north east.
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 8:39 pm

Them models look a hot mess right about now, making that big curve to the NE, but just like i always say, WE WILL SEE.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2003 9:22 pm

Wow in 6 hours they changed in a significant way to the north and northeast.Apparently they see a big trough lifting the system to the north.
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#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 13, 2003 9:53 pm

the guidance was split at 18Z. The ohio state runs were basically (besides the a9uk) the only ones to indicate a more westward motion. Now, it is just the persistence models going westward while the majority of the others are much farther right
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#7 Postby Renata » Tue Oct 14, 2003 2:25 am

... and meanwhile someone forgot to tell TD#19 that it is suppose to go north!! The poor thing continues west and has the models in knots (no pun intended).

The models are just totally screwed up. There is NO WAY that the trough around 45W could possibly lift it out of the ITCZ. Too far!!

What a mess.
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