ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[drewschmaltz]

Can anyone post this "insane"GFS FV 12Z run?

I can't figure out how to embed a tweet apparently.

[Blinhart]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

[Ubuntwo]

Can anyone post this "insane"GFS FV 12Z run?

In this tweet:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1038498427628388352

[Aric Dunn]

New 12z EPS run:

now that is more telling than any one model..

[Steve]

Can anyone post this "insane"GFS FV 12Z run?

I
You don’t have the link to tropical tidbits?

Tropical Tidbits
Dot com
Forecast models
Global
FV3-GFS

[drewschmaltz]

It was embedded on the previous page as well.

I can't figure out how to embed a tweet.

[AdamFirst]

Can anyone post this "insane"GFS FV 12Z run?

Landfalls in Wilmington NC, turns east and stalls, retreats back to the southwest, restrengthens, hits Wilmington NC again and finally carries it out to sea

saved loop

[NC_Cyclone]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

So to you basically 95% of the worlds super computers are dead wrong 5 days out by Hundreds of miles... bro. The consensus is clearly zoning in on SC/NC

U.K. was the only support for Florida and that is gone.

[PandaCitrus]

There's actually a surprisingly strong amount of the Euro ensembles that bring Florence into Northern FL, Southern GA. If the ridge is stronger than expected, the HWRF may be on to something.

[meriland29]

Can anyone post this "insane"GFS FV 12Z run?

I
You don’t have the link to tropical tidbits?

Tropical Tidbits
Dot com
Forecast models
Global
FV3-GFS

I do, but my phone is slow till I get home...but the runs you embed on the site work well .

[WAcyclone]

Compared to the 00z EPS the 12z run is much stronger. It also seems like the spread is decreasing:

[NC_Cyclone]

There's actually a surprisingly strong amount of the Euro ensembles that bring Florence into Northern FL, Southern GA. If the ridge is stronger than expected, the HWRF may be on to something.

5 members landfall Florida.. from what 20 the last run?? Come on man. Hwrf is an intensity model. Not a model to trust over every other model

[Camerooski]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

That's ridiculous considering neither the Euro or the GFS have even come close to a FL hit.

[OuterBanker]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90812&fh=0

[Blinhart]

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

So to you basically 95% of the worlds super computers are dead wrong 5 days out by Hundreds of miles... bro. The consensus is clearly zoning in on SC/NC

U.K. was the only support for Florida and that is gone.

Got one word for you. WRONG.

[NC_Cyclone]

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

So to you basically 95% of the worlds super computers are dead wrong 5 days out by Hundreds of miles... bro. The consensus is clearly zoning in on SC/NC

U.K. was the only support for Florida and that is gone.

Got one word for you. WRONG.

Show me legitimate proof of Florida having a higher chance of landfall than NC.

show me.


NO models are trending south. UK is north. Eps is north.

[Evil Jeremy]

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

So to you basically 95% of the worlds super computers are dead wrong 5 days out by Hundreds of miles... bro. The consensus is clearly zoning in on SC/NC

U.K. was the only support for Florida and that is gone.

Happens more often than you seem to think. Happens every year. Happened last year, multiple times.

That said, Florida appears *relatively* safe at the moment. But rule #1 of the tropics is there are no certainties, ever. Maybe I'll put that in my signature...

[Blinhart]

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

That's ridiculous considering neither the Euro or the GFS have even come close to a FL hit.

Go back and look at all the models in the last 3 days, can't just go by the most current models, you need to look at all of them.

[OuterBanker]

Maybe I just need to back off for a while and realize that it will probably change.

Just looked at wave watch, it has 30 footers on the OBX.

[txwatcher91]

IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.

That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.

Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.

Models trended a bit weaker and north with ridging in the 12z runs. We are less than 5 days out and the blend the NHC uses along with their track is pointing to a Carolinas threat. Sure, there is a small chance this could affect Florida, but the majority of the data outside a few EPS members and the HWRF show the Carolinas as the highest threat right now. There’s a ton of -removed- going on in this thread rather than analyzing the tools we have and noting that everything except the HWRF has shifted north. FWIW, the Euro, FV3 and UK are the top 3 models in verification scores for 5H and all of them have a Carolinas threat and are nowhere close to Florida now.