WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

That's a moat between the feeder band and the convective overcast.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MANGKHUT)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A
081714Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH,
ALONG WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 081512Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TS 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE UNUSUALLY
FAST (AND UNDERFORECAST BY THE MODELS) LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT GUAM CPA.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 50NM AT TAU 36-48 NEAR GUAM. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN JUST SOUTH OF
WEST (ON A 250-260 DEGREE RADIAL) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GUAM
REGION DUE TO A RE-ORIENTATION OF THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG OVER WESTERN JAPAN. DUE
TO THE SYSTEM SIZE (APPROXIMATELY 340-NM DIAMETER) AND EXPANSIVE
SPIRAL BANDING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACT OVER A
LARGE AREA. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36
TO AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS UNTIL THERE IS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE TRACK CLOSER TO GUAM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
WITH A 200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY
HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW), WHICH RANGE
FROM 120-145 KNOTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Coming in weaker but a Cat 3 is nothing to snooze at!

[euro6208]

Condition of readiness 2 has been declared which means that damaging winds may arrive within 24 hours.

[mrbagyo]

Now a Typhoon as per JTWC BT
26W MANGKHUT 180909 0000 14.8N 155.1E WPAC 65 974

I'm expecting JMA to follow suit

[1900hurricane]

Banding is becoming tighter on visible imagery.

[mrbagyo]

That western band

[1900hurricane]

Assuming the BURF is decoded properly, JMA's FT does appear to be 4.0 for 00Z. A typhoon upgrade may soon be coming.

[mrbagyo]

It's now Official
JMA upgrades Mangkhut to typhoon status

All Tropical Cyclones

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 9 September 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 9 September>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°50' (14.8°)
E155°00' (155.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Starting to develop that banding/nascent eye look. I wouldn't be surprised to see rapid intensification in the overnight period given current structure.

[euro6208]

Debating whether or not I should work on it's CPA.

[Highteeld]

JMA is taking to down to 905 mb at 12 Sept. 0z

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1038615280006713345

[1900hurricane]

Jim Edds is en route to the Marianas.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1038463590838104064

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY 26W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS (FROM 35 KNOTS TO
65 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
(WITHIN 20NM). A 082304Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH TCB WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TY 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE UNUSUALLY
FAST (AND UNDERFORECAST BY THE MODELS) LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT GUAM CPA.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 53NM AT TAU 36-48 NEAR GUAM. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN JUST SOUTH OF
WEST (ON A 250-260 DEGREE RADIAL) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GUAM
REGION DUE TO A RE-ORIENTATION OF THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG OVER WESTERN JAPAN. DUE
TO THE SYSTEM SIZE (APPROXIMATELY 340-NM DIAMETER) AND EXPANSIVE
SPIRAL BANDING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACT OVER A
LARGE AREA. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36
TO AN INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND 125 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS UNTIL THERE IS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE TRACK CLOSER TO GUAM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
WITH A 200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY
HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW), WHICH RANGE
FROM 110-145 KNOTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

A Typhoon Warning is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
Saipan and adjacent coastal waters in the Mariana Islands.

Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74 mph or
more, are expected as early as Monday afternoon. Preparations
should be completed as soon as possible.